ATL: JERRY - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[TheStormExpert]

Just as the GFS drops development yet again the Euro develops it in 48hrs.

[GeneratorPower]

Just as the GFS drops development yet again the Euro develops it in 48hrs.

GFS remains 24-48 hours behind the Euro in its ideas. I go with Euro in every case.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z UKMET has a hurricane (I think?) near the islands by 168 hours.

[CyclonicFury]

18z GFS back on board with development.

[SFLcane]

Humberto like a vacuum cleaner takes whatever is in the tropical Atlantic with him north.

[boca]

We haven’t had a strong Bermuda high at all this summer.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF develops this into a hurricane pretty quickly, looks to target the islands.

[cycloneye]

[abajan]

https://i.imgur.com/X37HAuy.png

COTI is most peculiar.

[WeatherEmperor]

This doesnt mean 97L wont turn North later on, but the Ukmet has it turning W right near the northern islands towards PR




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[AtlanticWind]

Euro trends further west.
See if trends continue

[chaser1]

This doesnt mean 97L wont turn North later on, but the Ukmet has it turning W right near the northern islands towards PR

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190916/ed8428c967af2e2511cd4c2d44d674ec.gif


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No way does the UK verify unless this system takes a real long time to get it's act together. Seems that practically all models have 97L gaining latitude nearly immediately regardless.

[cycloneye]

[LarryWx]

The CONUS appears to me to be safe from this one, fortunately.

[AubreyStorm]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 0 11.4N 41.2W 1011 22
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 12.1N 42.1W 1010 24
1200UTC 17.09.2019 24 12.9N 43.9W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 36 14.0N 45.0W 1007 28
1200UTC 18.09.2019 48 14.8N 47.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 15.3N 49.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 15.7N 52.1W 998 45
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 16.4N 54.4W 993 52
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 16.9N 56.7W 986 64
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 17.3N 59.3W 984 69
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 17.4N 61.2W 982 68
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 17.5N 62.9W 977 68
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 17.9N 64.3W 973 74

[ConvergenceZone]

Pretty much everything forming in the far Atlantic will go out to sea this time of year. Storms can still effect the islands. And probably about 1 out of every 25 storms will make it to the US Mainland

[StormTracker]

This doesnt mean 97L wont turn North later on, but the Ukmet has it turning W right near the northern islands towards PR

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190916/ed8428c967af2e2511cd4c2d44d674ec.gif


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No way does the UK verify unless this system takes a real long time to get it's act together. Seems that practically all models have 97L gaining latitude nearly immediately regardless.

How good/bad is the UK in feeling out ridging vs. the other models? Does it have left bias or is it picking up on something the other models aren't?

[StormTracker]

This doesnt mean 97L wont turn North later on, but the Ukmet has it turning W right near the northern islands towards PR

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190916/ed8428c967af2e2511cd4c2d44d674ec.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No way does the UK verify unless this system takes a real long time to get it's act together. Seems that practically all models have 97L gaining latitude nearly immediately regardless.

How good/bad is the UK in feeling out ridging vs. the other models? Does it have left bias or is it picking up on something the other models aren't?

Maybe it's thinking is 97L is going to ride the ITCZ a little while longer than most models or, it's still confused over which of the three entities that were once there it is going to develop.

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO runs 97L into a brick wall at 192 hrs - stops a OTS solution dead in it's tracks.