EPAC: LORENA - Remnants

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it's working on one.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly, I don't think whether this actually makes landfall will make a difference. Land interaction should be a problem, and is generally enough to kill it based on similar system, in about two days time, probably after attaining minimal hurricane intensity.

[wx98]

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18
Location: 17.4°N 103.5°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph


Recon is heading to check this one out.

[WacoWx]

I've got a friend heading to Cabo tomorrow morning. He's asking if he has anything to worry about other than run of the mill rain.

Any thoughts? TIA

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate
that Lorena has strengthened this morning. Subjective and
objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass
support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.

Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past
several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be
impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone. The
statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models
both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the
next couple of days. Consequently, gradual strengthening is
expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the
NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to
become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should
commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface
temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear.

An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if
the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is
showing.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt.
A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western
Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest
with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5. This
persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the
southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday. The NHC forecast
is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP
HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore.


Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Lorena's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the
development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands
wrapping around the circulation. The initial intensity has been
increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite
estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Lorena
is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and
additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24
hours. After that time, Lorena's intensity will depend on how much
interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Mexico. The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the
immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs.
After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast
to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California
peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more
uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction.

Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track. Recent
microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt.
Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern
portion of mid-level ridge. The overall track envelope has nudged
eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico. In fact, the
ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a
distinct possibility. The early portion of the NHC track has been
nudged eastward, and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model
track and the various consensus aids. After 24 hours, most of the
guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to
the north of the cyclone. During this portion of the track
forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight.
A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations
to protect life in property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[WacoWx]

I've got a friend heading to Cabo tomorrow morning. He's asking if he has anything to worry about other than run of the mill rain.

Any thoughts? TIA

So they (14 of them) are waiting on my input regarding going or cancelling this trip. I am used to seeing a Models thread but I cant seem to find any forecast on direction or strength of this storm, other than reading the above snippets.

[Netzero9455]

I've got a friend heading to Cabo tomorrow morning. He's asking if he has anything to worry about other than run of the mill rain.

Any thoughts? TIA

So they (14 of them) are waiting on my input regarding going or cancelling this trip. I am used to seeing a Models thread but I cant seem to find any forecast on direction or strength of this storm, other than reading the above snippets.

I couldn´t really tell you anything either way, what I do see is that what NHC predicted as of 10 AM this morning is that during the life of LORENA, the Cabo San Lucas area will have a 55% cumulative probability of seeing at least tropical storm force (39 MPH) winds. I´ll post the snippet below.

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 181437
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 39(47) 7(54) 1(55)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 1(18)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 22(25) 5(30) X(30)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)


The whole probability advisory is located here.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1437.shtml


This is in no way an attempt to forecast and I am only relaying what the official authority has released on the matter.

[wx98]

I've got a friend heading to Cabo tomorrow morning. He's asking if he has anything to worry about other than run of the mill rain.

Any thoughts? TIA

So they (14 of them) are waiting on my input regarding going or cancelling this trip. I am used to seeing a Models thread but I cant seem to find any forecast on direction or strength of this storm, other than reading the above snippets.

If the NHC's current track and intensity holds, Cabo would take a Cat 1 head on or near miss Saturday morning, so do with that info what you will.

[WacoWx]

Thanks, y'all. I think a Cat 1 is doable.

[TheDreamTraveler]

GFS is showing a fujiwhara effect with Lorena and Mario starting in the next day or so.

[zeehag]

nhc has yours mine and ours with mario and lorena...do we believe the ours. will we see fujiwhara effect or will we have nice boring storms..

[somethingfunny]

Thanks, y'all. I think a Cat 1 is doable.

The chance of a significant hurricane strike on Cabo this week is certainly higher than the usual 0%. But it's not particularly likely.

At least one rainy day seems like a very good bet though, and rip currents will be dangerous on the beach there. It won't be an ideal vacation but I wouldn't cancel the trip over it. I like weather and I can entertain myself indoors so my feelings about the possible situation may differ from your friend's.

'tis the season after all and I imagine this is the cheapest time of year to visit Cabo.

[somethingfunny]

Doublepost

[galaxy401]

Looks concerning for Mexico depending on how fast this storm strengthens.

Hoping for Lorena to gives us some good rainfall here in Arizona after that "Non-soon" we had this summer. Also ready for a cooldown.

[Astromanía]

this is a hurricane, why it has not been upgraded here yet? And yes this is very dangerous, very close to the coast so many towns will experience hurricane force winds and devastating flood and mudslides, I hope everyone is prepared there but this thing didn´t let a lot of time to do that, this could be as bad as Manuel in 2013 but I hope it doesn´t, I will pray for my compatriots

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it's making landfall now.

[Astromanía]

It means she will be perish soon? Or has a chance to make a comeback?

[WacoWx]

Can someone post a link to some infrared imagery of Lorena?

[Netzero9455]

Can someone post a link to some infrared imagery of Lorena?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floate ... oater.html

I´m in Puerto Vallarta, we´ve had rain non-stop since last night around 8 PM here, but it hasn´t been especially heavy, just a dreary day, very very humid, but not even 10 MPH of wind, I believe that the Sierra Madre mountains to our south and southwest block the winds from tropicla cyclones coming from the south. Since it´s passing our latitude around 70 miles offshore at the moment, I suppose we´ll have constant rain for the rest of the day, but I don´t see any other effects happening here other than that.