EPAC: LORENA - Remnants

[WacoWx]

Perfect! Thank you.

[Astromanía]

Cabo San Lucas is now completely under the gun, hope everyone is prepared there, San Jose del Cabo will also experience tropical force winds if not hurricane.

[zeehag]

this is a hurricane, why it has not been upgraded here yet? And yes this is very dangerous, very close to the coast so many towns will experience hurricane force winds and devastating flood and mudslides, I hope everyone is prepared there but this thing didn´t let a lot of time to do that, this could be as bad as Manuel in 2013 but I hope it doesn´t, I will pray for my compatriots

not much time?? we had more than a week to prep as these were hanging around a blobs in nhc graphics for a week or more. unfortunately there were no potential trackings of them until invest was declared, then it was very rapid. so i wait until winds are hoolies and rain started so i knew it was going to make a difference in our world here. heck is end of cane season, the most active time...i kept my preps ready and finished as rain started here.
right now the ts is intensifying back into c1..... we having occasional wicked gust here and there but nothing cane-ish thankfully.. i got 'caned out by pattybaby err patricia. oh my am i in wrong zone hahahahahahahaha. yes i willbe glad when this goes to cabo . sorry cabo. it will pass you on the outside. supposedly. hopefully. patty taught me not to trust any cone monster

[Astromanía]

I mean when I saw the tv news people where wrongly saying that lorena was going to go to the sea and not near the coast so no danger for people there, then they suddenly change the information saying most recently that this thing would cross near the coast like few hours before making landfall in southwest Mexico all because of poor job done agraved with the rapid movement of this thing, take a note also that many people here are not that awere of what the tv news says even less what the nhc says or in this forum, so yes this take many people by surprise, but thankfully the security plan for this type of events take place in time to evacuate people. Another thing, just because where you live doesn't have bad conditions means that in other places the weather its so cool, obviusly not, I saw videos where the rain was so bad with tons of wind gust. The people most affected by this are the ones that lives in small towns not on big cities that have good buildings

[cycloneye]

No upgrade to hurricane on best track.

Location: 22.0°N 107.3°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 80 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

[TallyTracker]

The interaction between Lorena and Mario is fascinating! Even though Mario may get absorbed, the tracks of both systems are rotating around each other some. It may not be full fujiwara, but it is awesome nonetheless!

[zeehag]

The interaction between Lorena and Mario is fascinating! Even though Mario may get absorbed, the tracks of both systems are rotating around each other some. It may not be full fujiwara, but it is awesome nonetheless!

and i get to feel it....we started having some freshening breezes earlier in afternoon, about 130 pm. final preps on boat were done and i hunkered. got wifi panditas foods and two now sleeping cats. we good. all is mello now i hope it stays this way. we should receive less of mario than of lorena.
as for the length of time for warning--i was watching these very closely, as i got 'caned out being in patricia. the invest was long time forming. stayed a yellow orange then red blob for long time. i was growing most impatient as i needed to know where the beast would step.

[wx98]

...CORE OF HURRICANE LORENA APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
6:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20
Location: 22.7°N 109.0°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[ColdMiser123]

The intermediate advisory update at 8 am had Lorena's position verifying to the north of the track, which is why it shows a west-southwest bend at the next forecast point.

Hard to see how Lorena doesn't make an official landfall in the Peninsula at this point. Looks like we will get one more reconnaissance aircraft before it makes its closest approach to Cabo San Lucas.

[WacoWx]

Looks like a direct hit on Cabo San Lucas from the imagery. Looks like an eye is starting to take shape as well.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA CRAWLING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving
toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected on
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass
near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the
peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either
degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying
to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC
SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images
at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers
yields an initial intensity of 65 kt.

Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the
cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the
cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler
waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin. In
addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global
models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation
of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days.

Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at
2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical
ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to
the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest
around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the
track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west
of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit
to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model
consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern
Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding
possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Astromanía]

Inminent landfall it seems! I think this is a category 2 hurricane now. A west track produced this to be now near to San Jose del Cabo and the Gulf of California, so Cabo San Lucas is now receiving most probabbly only tropical storm winds and San Jose del Cabo hurricane winds. Stay safe!

[Astromanía]

Hurricane Lorena and tropical storm Mario

[Astromanía]

Hard to believe Lorena will do that turn, not interaction with Mario at all right now.

Plus this looks stronger everytime and looking at the track this maybe will not make landfall in Baja California after all and just stay very close to that, maybe it will recurves to Sinaloa, I don´t know what to think

Edit: Wow the nhc change the track and now will cross trough the entire Baja California Penninsula! and it seems is making landfall right now so forget what I say about the recurve lol,

[Astromanía]

I don´t know how this is not a category 2

If it had more time it could reached major status

[HurricaneFrances04]

Wow, the models/NHC have had a really hard time trying to figure this one out. Mario probably not helping. It may not even travel up the spine of Baja California.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena
has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance
plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt.
However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the
center.

More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track
models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward
as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and
shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was
previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over
waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This
solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with
the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right
occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of
California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that
another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global
models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches
and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland
Mexican coast.

For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings
Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple
of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and
after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the
peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to
to the left, depending on the new track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring
heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into
Saturday, with flash flooding possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

Wasn’t there SFMR data supporting at least 80?

[Astromanía]

It would be awesome if Lorena travel across all the gulf of California and reaching major status. Still I don´t see a really evident landfall and this is heading north right now.

[CrazyC83]

Has any hurricane ever gone the length of the Gulf of California without making landfall until the end? That would be historic.