BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 110.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warnings for
the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula and replaced it
with a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo. The government of Mexico also adjusted the watches and
warnings for mainland Mexico and a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Huatabampito to Puerto
Libertad.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San
Evaristo.
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion toward the
north is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track,
the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California
today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
tonight and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center
reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are
possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.
RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:
Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.
Sonora...3 to 6 inches.
Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.
This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019
The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain
of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most
likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very
difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to
be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of
California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of
Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that
the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening
is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since
we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air
Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide
a better assessment of Lorena's winds.
Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is
uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees
at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high
over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force
Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring
the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the
center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the
corrected consensus HCCA.
Key Messages:
1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and
northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to
bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.
2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force
winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of
mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
