ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Bostonriff wrote:Curious why they're dedicating a recon to this when it's projected to be, at best, a TD when it recurves north over PR for a fish future in the North Atlantic.

On a side-note: what's the record for storms running through the east-Carib Hebert Box that never hit Florida (that being what the Herbert Boxes are predictors for)? So far, we're 0-for-2 this season, and will be 0-3 when 99L misses too.

2019 reminds me of 1995 and 1996, which had a lot of storms, but with reduced/less-intense Caribbean and GoM activity, and much early-recurving fish.


I suspect that recon was already stationed in St. Croix after investigating Jerry. It wasn't a long flight to check out the disturbance. I doubt that the NHC would have sent a plane all the way from Keesler to investigate it.


It departed from St Croix.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#42 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:37 pm

Well if the new model runs are correct, we're going to need to watch this system even if it doesn't develop in the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#43 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:14 pm

I don't need anymore "fun" tracks that feature a stalling hurricane near the Bahamas...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#44 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 21, 2019 2:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:I don't need anymore "fun" tracks that feature a stalling hurricane near the Bahamas...

Amen to that...hopefully this is one of those one offs..back OTS on 0z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#45 Postby colbroe » Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:34 pm

Low pressure is now at 1009 location 11.4 N 57.9 W looks like it is trying to consolidate as it gets closer to the islands
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#46 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:35 pm

drezee wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I don't need anymore "fun" tracks that feature a stalling hurricane near the Bahamas...

Amen to that...hopefully this is one of those one offs..back OTS on 0z


The 18zGFS goes into Cuba, more questions than answers
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:27 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave
located less than 100 miles east of Barbados have not become any
better organized during the day, and the system does not have a
well-defined circulation. However, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission
earlier this afternoon indicated that the wave is producing winds
to 35 mph. At least gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
during the next couple of days while it moves westward and
then northwestward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system is then expected to
turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on
Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple
of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#48 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:27 pm

We've been getting quite a bit of squally weather from this in Barbados. Not my location so much, but there have been reports of wind gusts measuring as high as 41 knots, and the seas are pretty rough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#49 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:48 pm

850mb vorticity is on the increase, no wonder models are becoming more bullish. That and also they are backing off on the intensity of JERRY as he recurves which lessens the shear:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#50 Postby msbee » Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:54 pm

abajan wrote:We've been getting quite a bit of squally weather from this in Barbados. Not my location so much, but there have been reports of wind gusts measuring as high as 41 knots, and the seas are pretty rough.

Hoping it passes with nothing serious
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#51 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:09 pm

Is there any chance this could just rapidly intensify literally from the start? It's probably almost a TD now anyway based on the special update (70% is probably conservative).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:11 pm

Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system.
Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#53 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is there any chance this could just rapidly intensify literally from the start? It's probably almost a TD now anyway based on the special update (70% is probably conservative).

Maybe ptc12 at 11am as it is threatening and hitting land and will probably be a tropical cyclone once in the Caribbean before Puerto Rico
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#54 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is there any chance this could just rapidly intensify literally from the start? It's probably almost a TD now anyway based on the special update (70% is probably conservative).


More than that, since it is SO close to land, I wonder why they haven't begun PTC advisories?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#55 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:35 pm

Special TWO issued for it:

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 220258
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.  In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday.  Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#56 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:45 pm

Definitely thinking the GFS is too weak in the short term just based on the organization of 99L right now. HWRF may end up being closer to reality, unfortunately.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#57 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:51 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Definitely thinking the GFS is too weak in the short term just based on the organization of 99L right now. HWRF may end up being closer to reality, unfortunately.

The GFS depicts low shear and does little with it so that in itself makes no sense. And this may be another for the Bahamas which in no way if fair as they’ve been hit 2x in 2 weeks and maybe Florida needs to watch in case of a similar solution to the HWRF intensity wise with the GFS track. The HWRF intensity wise stood head and shoulders above the rest with Dorian so it can’t be discounted
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#58 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:57 pm

Weather deteriorating here in Trinidad ... winds picking up markedly and rain getting heavier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#59 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:18 am

Hurricaneman wrote: The GFS depicts low shear and does little with it so that in itself makes no sense. And this may be another for the Bahamas which in no way if fair as they’ve been hit 2x in 2 weeks and maybe Florida needs to watch in case of a similar solution to the HWRF intensity wise with the GFS track. The HWRF intensity wise stood head and shoulders above the rest with Dorian so it can’t be discounted


From what I saw on visible satellite on Saturday, up until now, I don't think the issue was shear, but the presence of dry air aloft. The tell-tale sign to me was those arcus clouds that raced WNW-NW away from the area of convection on the east side of the wave axis. You don't get large surface outflow boundaries accelerating outward like that in the deep tropics unless you have some mid level dry air. That having been said, to the west, the 00Z RAOBs from Port-of-Spain and Point-a-Pitre were quite moist, and really didn't show much dry air aloft at all. So if dry air aloft had been a problem, it won't be for much longer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#60 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:22 am

The decision to put up a special TWO instead of advisories on a PTC strikes me as kind of odd given its very close proximity to the islands and how close it is to making a run for actual TC status, but will probably wake up to advisories nevertheless. The weird track gives me an uneasy feeling if conditions become any less marginal to the northwest.
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