ATL: KAREN - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Euro Ensembles: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL99

12Z EPS: confusing because some of these US hits from Jerry & others from 99L

EPS for 99L looks exactly as I expected: chaotic. Barring a simple fast track East of PR and quickly out to sea, this looks like an interesting next few days as there is a chance of 99L to pull off a very anomolous track

Basically shows anyone from Cuba to New Foundland including Bermuda need to watch this according to the models and their ensembles

[toad strangler]

18z GFS wants to do the same as Euro north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/aw6ylwN.gif

Yep. And with an even more ominous upper level setup

A track like this anytime in Oct requires a extremely anomalous 500mb set up. I’d go with climo this far out all day and night.

[sma10]

Absolutely in love with the 18z GFS.

Tropical Genesis in far SE Caribbean, NNW thru Puerto Rico, gets halfway to Bermuda, stops, then heads SW and strikes northern Cuba before heading back into the Caribbean.

Assignment for history buffs: please find an analog to this track

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS wants to do the same as Euro north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/aw6ylwN.gif

Yep. And with an even more ominous upper level setup

A track like this anytime in Oct requires a extremely anomalous 500mb set up. I’d go with climo this far out all day and night.

I would honestly go down the middle of both scenarios which would be off the east coast but the fact that the models are showing this definitely raises an eyebrow

[sma10]

18z GFS wants to do the same as Euro north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/aw6ylwN.gif

Yep. And with an even more ominous upper level setup

A track like this anytime in Oct requires a extremely anomalous 500mb set up. I’d go with climo this far out all day and night.

A track like this in ANY month would be ridiculous

[Hurricaneman]

Yep. And with an even more ominous upper level setup

A track like this anytime in Oct requires a extremely anomalous 500mb set up. I’d go with climo this far out all day and night.

A track like this in ANY month would be ridiculous

This scenario the models have has happened before and here are examples

1985 Elena
2008 Ike
1965 Betsy

So while very anomalous it has happened before but from starting in the Caribbean and heading north toward Bermuda and changing course across Cuba I don’t think it has happened in that configuration

[toad strangler]

Yep. And with an even more ominous upper level setup

A track like this anytime in Oct requires a extremely anomalous 500mb set up. I’d go with climo this far out all day and night.

A track like this in ANY month would be ridiculous

I’m talking a general W to WSW track after passing N of the GA’s. I don’t react to individual model runs at this range.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well, the latest trends in the 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF are... interesting.

[sma10]

A track like this anytime in Oct requires a extremely anomalous 500mb set up. I’d go with climo this far out all day and night.

A track like this in ANY month would be ridiculous

This scenario the models have has happened before and here are examples

1985 Elena
2008 Ike
1965 Betsy

So while very anomalous it has happened before but from starting in the Caribbean and heading north toward Bermuda and changing course across Cuba I don’t think it has happened in that configuration

Yeah, there are elements of Ike and Betsy that I could agree with, but this would be a unique track from a SE Caribbean genesis

[aperson]

Throw climo out the window. There's an upper latitude omega block over Greenland, not a climo pattern at all. The consistency of long-lasting blocks like this may be why both GFS and Euro are seeing the same thing at long time scales.

[sma10]

A track like this anytime in Oct requires a extremely anomalous 500mb set up. I’d go with climo this far out all day and night.

A track like this in ANY month would be ridiculous

I’m talking a general W to WSW track after passing N of the GA’s. I don’t react to individual model runs at this range.

Yes in the general sense, a W, WSW motion in October in that area would be unusual. But when you consider 99L's point of origin, the whole track looks goofy

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Would certainly be quite something to see a storm out by 25N/60W moving north end up in the western Caribbean.

[ronjon]

And finally 18z GFS info the eastern GOM as a tropical storm that hits the FL panhandle. Very entertaining...chance its real? <1%

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS legacy with no development but you can track the low-level vorticity which follows a similar track to the FV3 GFS except a bit more north heading through South Florida then into the GOM:

[Nimbus]

Throw climo out the window. There's an upper latitude omega block over Greenland, not a climo pattern at all. The consistency of long-lasting blocks like this may be why both GFS and Euro are seeing the same thing at long time scales.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485131981043269632/625103652570529802/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_29.png

Nice find! The polar vortex can be modeled fairly accurately at longer ranges if the storm intensity is also predicted correctly. A stronger storm can put a kink in the jet stream that changes everything though.

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF has a more organized system through 66 hours than the 12Z and a bit more to the right. That is Puerto Rico to the NW:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF has a hurricane by 75 hours (probably too strong).

[SpaceyLacey]

18Z HWRF has a more organized system through 66 hours than the 12Z and a bit more to the right. That is Puerto Rico to the NW:

Didn’t the HWRF also have Jerry stronger than the other models did?

[CrazyC83]

Absolutely in love with the 18z GFS.

Tropical Genesis in far SE Caribbean, NNW thru Puerto Rico, gets halfway to Bermuda, stops, then heads SW and strikes northern Cuba before heading back into the Caribbean.

Assignment for history buffs: please find an analog to this track

Inez would be the closest parallel. But that was much earlier in the season.

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF MUCH stronger heading NNW: