ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#101 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:01 pm

12z Canadian into Nola
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#102 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:01 pm

TheProfessor wrote:We need to stop letting 1 bust determine our opinions of how good a model is. Yes the ICON busted with Dorian's movement in the Bahamas, but that was not a simple forecast. If anyone remembers the steering currents were extremely delicate. There were 4 major players affecting steering and if any one of them were slightly different it would have completely changed the track of the storm. It ended up that the weakness over Missouri was stronger than forecasted and Florida was spared, but there were legit concerns from members here, including me, that the storm could drift southwestward before that feature became clear. More likely than not the ICON just wasn't handling that mesoscale feature well, which is fine, it's not a mesoscale model.

Anyways, if we were going to only judge models by their worst busts then no one would take the UKMET seriously after it kept trying to send Barry into the central Texas coast as a major hurricane last year, even when consensus was showing that Barry likely wouldn't make landfall west of the Tx/La border. :lol:


Actually the track of the 12z ICON makes a lot sense imo. It fits in line with what a lot of the Euro ensembles are showing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#103 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:01 pm

well organized at and nearly at hurricane at 51 hours and just hanging around. well a hurricane at the 850 mb level.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#104 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:yeah 12z HWRF much stronger and organized no extra vorts rotating all over the place which is more indicative of current progress.

Landfall occurs near Dauphine Island, AL, in five days.

Edit: 12Z run from 31 May
Last edited by Shell Mound on Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#105 Postby Siker » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:36 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:yeah 12z HWRF much stronger and organized no extra vorts rotating all over the place which is more indicative of current progress.

Landfall occurs near Dauphine Island, AL, in five days.


Where do you have the full HWRF output from this early?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#106 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:37 pm

Siker wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:yeah 12z HWRF much stronger and organized no extra vorts rotating all over the place which is more indicative of current progress.

Landfall occurs near Dauphine Island, AL, in five days.


Where do you have the full HWRF output from this early?

Tropical Tidbits

Edit: 12Z run is from yesterday (31 May)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#107 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:42 pm

so far the 12z run is much much slower and more organized and little "GYRE" Motion. just more of a lack of steering.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#108 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:45 pm

Looks like the 12z Euro has initialized the storm pretty accurately.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#109 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:56 pm

A few key things to take note of with the HWRF and historical HWRF 850mb vs 10m winds.

The HWRF under hurricane force winds does well with the 10m meter winds. but fails pretty poorly from observed recon data.

long story short. Once the 850MB winds on the HWRF reach Hurricane force it is typically found to be a hurricane by direct observation.

and the difference in the 10m winds and 850mb winds grows apart further as it strengthens to a point where the 10m winds can be 20+ mph lower than actually observed.

This 12Z HWRF has a 850mb hurricane at 51 hours and only increases from that point on.

but 108 hrs it is 100kt hurricane at 850mb and only 64kt hurricane at the 10m winds.

So given the current organization and enviroment.. this could strengthen rather quickly more in line with the 850mb HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#110 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:59 pm

12z HWRF appears to be heading towards the middle Texas coast at the end of its run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#111 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:05 pm

TheProfessor wrote:12z HWRF appears to be heading towards the middle Texas coast at the end of its run.



yeah big shift in thinking. and intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#112 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:12z HWRF appears to be heading towards the middle Texas coast at the end of its run.



yeah big shift in thinking. and intensity.


What strength is it showing?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#113 Postby kevin » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:09 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:12z HWRF appears to be heading towards the middle Texas coast at the end of its run.



yeah big shift in thinking. and intensity.


What strength is it showing?


976 mbar @ 126 hours

Edit: see a screenshot of HWRF below (was parent version earlier)

Image
Last edited by kevin on Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#114 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:12 pm

kevin wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:

yeah big shift in thinking. and intensity.


What strength is it showing?


976 mbar @126 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2020060112/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_93L_43.png


How reliable is this model?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#115 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:13 pm

kevin wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:

yeah big shift in thinking. and intensity.


What strength is it showing?


976 mbar @126 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2020060112/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_93L_43.png

Are we still using the parent HWRF? Has it been adjusted?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#116 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:17 pm

ECMWF hits Mexico and goes back into the Pacific.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#117 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:19 pm

Well through this run of the Euro out the door..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#118 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:23 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#119 Postby Hammy » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Well through this run of the Euro out the door..


Any reason in particular? It seems like a lot of the models are trending towards a second low forming along the gyre as this one rotates around to the west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#120 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:25 pm



So what would cause such a turn back due south into those mountains?
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