ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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aspen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#121 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:25 pm

HWRF wants a strong TS or a weak hurricane in the BOC by Thursday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#122 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:25 pm

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Well through this run of the Euro out the door..


Any reason in particular? It seems like a lot of the models are trending towards a second low forming along the gyre as this one rotates around to the west.


I agree, but would it keep the same name?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#123 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:27 pm

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Well through this run of the Euro out the door..


Any reason in particular? It seems like a lot of the models are trending towards a second low forming along the gyre as this one rotates around to the west.


Because Current actual trends are showing less of a GYRE motion it has condensed. the Vorticity on the pacific is much weaker.

and the majority of the EPS have been showing less of a cyclonic loop and staying over the BOC>
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#124 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:34 pm

The European and GFS seem to be showing a second storm forming near the tip of the Yucatan. Both of them bury 93L into Mexico. Very interesting and plausible idea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#125 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:36 pm

MississippiWx wrote:The European and GFS seem to be showing a second storm forming near the tip of the Yucatan. Both of them bury 93L into Mexico. Very interesting and plausible idea.


Is that what that is on the Euro at 168 heading almost due west into central Texas?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#126 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:38 pm

SoupBone wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:The European and GFS seem to be showing a second storm forming near the tip of the Yucatan. Both of them bury 93L into Mexico. Very interesting and plausible idea.


Is that what that is on the Euro at 168 heading almost due west into central Texas?


Correct.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#127 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:39 pm

SoupBone wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:The European and GFS seem to be showing a second storm forming near the tip of the Yucatan. Both of them bury 93L into Mexico. Very interesting and plausible idea.


Is that what that is on the Euro at 168 heading almost due west into central Texas?


Yes. It probably has a landfall just south of Matagorda. Maybe Port O’Connor.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#128 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:43 pm

More like Galveston
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#129 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:46 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:More like Galveston


Yeah I wasn’t expecting that hard north turn like that. Very strange movement. A hard left turn then a hard north turn. Crazy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#130 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:The European and GFS seem to be showing a second storm forming near the tip of the Yucatan. Both of them bury 93L into Mexico. Very interesting and plausible idea.


Is that what that is on the Euro at 168 heading almost due west into central Texas?


Yes. It probably has a landfall just south of Matagorda. Maybe Port O’Connor.


Then it turns it due north sending it on top of Houston. :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#131 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:47 pm

Well hard left then is from ridge building in, doesn’t surprise me
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#132 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:49 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Well hard left then is from ridge building in, doesn’t surprise me


Yeah that part doesn’t surprise me either, but the sharp north turn does. I mean I can see why it happens though because it has the ridge breaking down.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#133 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:51 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#134 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:52 pm

Yep makes sense no doubt
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#135 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:55 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Yep makes sense no doubt


It’s all going to come down to that ridge. Placement and strength. Regardless it’s looking like a Texas landfall as at least a moderate tropical storm is looking more and more likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#136 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:58 pm

Yep, corpus to lake Charles
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#137 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:01 pm

The most interesting thing about that run is how the Euro makes the storm stronger over Mississippi after it has been inland for two days. :spam:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#138 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:02 pm

It’ll be interesting to see what the ensemble shows as most members were disregarding the second circulation theory. Maybe hinting at a stronger ridge in the short term?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#139 Postby USTropics » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:19 pm

SoupBone wrote:


So what would cause such a turn back due south into those mountains?


Currently there's a bit of a blocking pattern to the north, which is creating weak steering currents:
Image

With no dominating steering dictator, 93L is inherently attached to the CAG's rotational momentum (or angular momentum). Imagine you have a round tabletop, and it's spinning counter clockwise (CAG). Now drop a fidget spinner or some type of table top spinner (vorticity of 93L), and it will inherently start to follow the tabletop's angular momentum even though its rotation is also independent.

Essentially we have this large scale feature (CAG), and now a small scale feature embedded within. It's typical for the CAG to create numerous areas of low pressure that eventually can form into separate lows. They can become detached, especially when dominant steering currents become present (such as a passing trough). This pattern is typical for May-June, but the current position is anomalous (it's typically more biased towards the Pacific in May/June and biased towards the Atlantic in September/October).

So what will eventually become of these processes? There are (as usual) quite a few possibilities this early on. In the short term, location of consolidation for 93L is important. A more north and eastern location could give it time for steering currents to break down and allow for a more northern component. Reformations due to pressure drops could also impact this. Later in the week, there will be a passing trough to lift this north.

The more likely scenario with the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF is for 93L's vorticity to get pinwheeled back into Mexico. While the vorticity of 93L is long gone, there's enough consolidation of the broad cyclonic flow of the CAG to lift north, as a passing trough lowers pressure in the central GOM. The 12z GFS forecast shows these processes:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#140 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:24 pm

MississippiWx wrote:The most interesting thing about that run is how the Euro makes the storm stronger over Mississippi after it has been inland for two days. :spam:


I wonder if it's land interaction that is causing the vorticity to tighten?
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