ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#161 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:35 pm

The "UKXI" global model in the Tropical Tidbits site, I take it that is the UKMET?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/03L_tracks_latest.png

I'm asking because it brings the Storm much further east than all the others right toward the FL Panhandle and ends at hour 120.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#162 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:35 pm

18Z GFS takes it further east into SE LA then turns it deeper into the state and crosses into East Texas then finally heads north. That would be a ton of rain for both states.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#163 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:38 pm

SoupBone wrote:18Z GFS takes it further east into SE LA then turns it deeper into the state and crosses into East Texas then finally heads north. That would be a ton of rain for both states.


By far it is dumping the heaviest rain over the FL Panhandle.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#164 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:48 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
SoupBone wrote:18Z GFS takes it further east into SE LA then turns it deeper into the state and crosses into East Texas then finally heads north. That would be a ton of rain for both states.


By far it is dumping the heaviest rain over the FL Panhandle.


I noticed that after I posted. That is a massive easterly lopsided rainmaker.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#165 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:58 pm

AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, HWRF, 051, 185N, 932W, 47, 990

HWRF 18z run suggests 47 kt 990 mb right near the coast of Paraiso, Mexico, and it is the peak intensity in this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#166 Postby Steve » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:00 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, a lot more disagreement between them than on last night's run.

https://i.imgur.com/oKoaBJB.gif


They all pretty much have the same idea. Kind of a reverse "S" track. It's June, so things don't always get pulled out to the northeast like people assume they will. I have no idea, it's too early. But the EC at least sees the potential for the shift toward the NW rather than a fade to the NE
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#167 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:13 pm

As I thought, the 18z HWRF is like the GFS and Euro with a new vorticity coming off the Yucatan and into the Gulf. The next 48 or so hours could have drastic effects on what we might see a few days from now. Kind of reminds of the early stages of Dorian and that center relocation. It completely changed the outcome of that storm.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#168 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:17 pm

12z Euro Parallel is out. Has a 976ish mb hurricane making landfall probably near the Galveston area:

Image

Compared to the 00z Parellel run, the position for the next 96 hours is much more south. So it actually makes landfall over CA but then pulled north, reorganizes and makes landfall.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#169 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:18 pm

TheProfessor wrote:As I thought, the 18z HWRF is like the GFS and Euro with a new vorticity coming off the Yucatan and into the Gulf. The next 48 or so hours could have drastic effects on what we might see a few days from now. Kind of reminds of the early stages of Dorian and that center relocation. It completely changed the outcome of that storm.


Don’t you think this will move the eventual track further east? More towards the central Gulf?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#170 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro Parallel is out. Has a 976ish mb hurricane making landfall probably near the Galveston area:



Compared to the 00z Parellel run, the position for the next 96 hours is much more south. So it actually makes landfall over CA but then pulled north, reorganizes and makes landfall.


Explain the "parallel" to me, is this something new for the season?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#171 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:24 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro Parallel is out. Has a 976ish mb hurricane making landfall probably near the Galveston area:



Compared to the 00z Parellel run, the position for the next 96 hours is much more south. So it actually makes landfall over CA but then pulled north, reorganizes and makes landfall.


Explain the "parallel" to me, is this something new for the season?


It's like a beta that we can access early. it will be a new ECMWF upgrade that's due June 30th.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#172 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:25 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:As I thought, the 18z HWRF is like the GFS and Euro with a new vorticity coming off the Yucatan and into the Gulf. The next 48 or so hours could have drastic effects on what we might see a few days from now. Kind of reminds of the early stages of Dorian and that center relocation. It completely changed the outcome of that storm.


Don’t you think this will move the eventual track further east? More towards the central Gulf?


If that specific scenario happens then yes it could, it would also likely be a weaker storm and would be a heavy rain maker for the Gulf coast like WPC is showing. If we see a scenario where this storm stays over the BoC, shoots northeast for a bit, and then moves toward the TX/LA coast, then it's much more likely we'll see a tighter and stronger system where impacts will be more local, but a lot more significant. It's basically a "Tale of Two Scenarios" right now.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#173 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:30 pm

It's hard to tell but on the 12z Euro Parallel, it might not be a new entity.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#174 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:45 pm

A trend with the 12z and 18z model suite: Those that have this system stay distinct and move north after stalling like the NHC depicts are pretty intense, 980s to 960s. But those that have a new low develop after 03L is pushed into Mexico are far weaker, most in the high 990's, with a much broader system. Something to watch.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#175 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:46 pm

18z Euro which only goes out 90hrs still goes south into Mexico.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#176 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:47 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro which only goes out 90hrs still goes south into Mexico.

How intense does it get?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#177 Postby Visioen » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:49 pm

Am I stupid or is the Euro strengthening it over land?

Image
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#178 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:53 pm

Kingarabian wrote:It's hard to tell but on the 12z Euro Parallel, it might not be a new entity.



12z Euro para keeps TD3 over the BOC the entire run. It's easy to see on the UV-10M parameter on weathermodels.

Closest position to Mexico before it lifts north. This will be interesting to follow to see if the new euro gets this right.



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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#179 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:08 pm

18Z GFS accumulated precip through 10 days. Note all well east of the center of the storm:

Image
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#180 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:10 pm

There is spread on longer range from Texas to Florida.

Image

Image
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