ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#161 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:20 pm

There will likely still be enough shear to prevent this from becoming a formidable hurricane.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1267496125549903874


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#162 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:20 pm

TheProfessor wrote:As for SSTs the only area in the Gulf that might not support a hurricane is near the deep purple shade in the northeast GoM. Everywhere else is 26 degrees Celsius or higher.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/K0LW9cd/gulfmex-cf.gif [/url]


This website paints a completely different picture. Do they collate date differently?

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#163 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:24 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:As for SSTs the only area in the Gulf that might not support a hurricane is near the deep purple shade in the northeast GoM. Everywhere else is 26 degrees Celsius or higher.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/K0LW9cd/gulfmex-cf.gif [/url]


This website paints a completely different picture. Do they collate date differently?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png


I've never used data like this so I can't personally say how much merit it has. I'm assuming this is assuming that every atmospheric ingredient for a hurricane is perfect and then basing the potential strength of such hurricane off the SSTs and typical environmental pressures.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#164 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:34 pm

I feel like with all the loops that some models like the Euro and the UKMET are forecasting, may deter the future track a bit past 3 days. So really, forcasting landfall anywhere in the Gulf will be hard depending on the ridge and frontal set up.

Not to mention loops are one of the hardest things models have trouble forecasting and verifying.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#165 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:38 pm

90%/90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that
the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the
Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. The
disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive to support development, and a tropical depression
or storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then
forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern
Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress
of this disturbance as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required for a portion of this area later today or tonight.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely
to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products
from your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion: 2 PM TWO=90%/90%

#166 Postby plasticup » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:50 pm

Looking very good on satellite right now. Once the center gets over water this looks like it could spin up quickly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#167 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:04 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:As for SSTs the only area in the Gulf that might not support a hurricane is near the deep purple shade in the northeast GoM. Everywhere else is 26 degrees Celsius or higher.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/K0LW9cd/gulfmex-cf.gif [/url]


This website paints a completely different picture. Do they collate date differently?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

That’s only using SSTs and oceanic heat content, and represents the maximum possible intensity a system can reach in a certain region assuming other environmental factors (wind shear, atmospheric moisture levels, outflow, etc) are favorable. For example, if shear was very low and there was plenty of moisture, 93L could theoretically break 930 mbar. However, other factors will likely limit it to a Cat 2 at most.
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ATL: INVEST 93L - Recon

#168 Postby MGC » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:13 pm

Ciudad del Carmen airport is reporting a west wind....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion: 2 PM TWO=90%/90%

#169 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:17 pm

Almost a TD from the looks of it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion: 2 PM TWO=90%/90%

#170 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:18 pm

Looks like it is offshore now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#171 Postby plasticup » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:48 pm

That looks like a TD to me. Won't be long now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#172 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:09 pm

93L INVEST 200601 1800 19.5N 90.9W ATL 25 1008
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#173 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:15 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#174 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:50 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#175 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:13 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#176 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:13 pm

... and with 10 kt westerlies at Ciudad del Carmen for the last 2 hours, why not?

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1267549417051000832


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#177 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:21 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:... and with 10 kt westerlies at Ciudad del Carmen for the last 2 hours, why not?

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1267549417051000832


Not surprised at all.. radar and sat, and surface obs showing a well defiend circ.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#178 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:22 pm

THat was fast, forecast track & forecast discussion will be interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#179 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:24 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:There will likely still be enough shear to prevent this from becoming a formidable hurricane.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1267496125549903874


He said Arthur wasn't never going to form either.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#180 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:28 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:There will likely still be enough shear to prevent this from becoming a formidable hurricane.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1267496125549903874


He said Arthur wasn't never going to form either.

I wonder what ever happened to him. I remember he used to post here under the name Alyono. I also remember him comparing August 2017 to 2013.
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