ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1313
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#181 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:29 pm

The record for earliest third named storm was set by Colin in 2016. This will likely be named within 24 hours, beating the record Colin set by 4 days or so.
1 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4426
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#182 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:40 pm

NDG wrote:THat was fast, forecast track & forecast discussion will be interesting.


Euro brings it onshore pretty quickly down there.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3655
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#183 Postby psyclone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:41 pm

WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11463
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#184 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:46 pm

Can't wai to see how the NHC blends everything in.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#185 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:47 pm

psyclone wrote:WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186

That seems a little off unless it's forecast to be sheared.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#186 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:47 pm

psyclone wrote:WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186


This system could be lopsided with most of the rain displaced well to its east.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4230
Age: 36
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#187 Postby Hammy » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:
NDG wrote:THat was fast, forecast track & forecast discussion will be interesting.


Euro brings it onshore pretty quickly down there.


Still has about 60 hours and deepens fairly quickly on that same run.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gfsperpendicular
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
Location: Northern Virginia

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#188 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:51 pm

SoupBone wrote:
psyclone wrote:WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186


This system could be lopsided with most of the rain displaced well to its east.


It feels like most June Gulf systems are (including Colin whose record is in trouble here haha)
0 likes   
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11463
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#189 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:51 pm

Yeah the gulf can do some wild things. Humberto 2007.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18871
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#190 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:53 pm

Also remember that the stronger/deeper this becomes the less likely the perturbations in the shrinking GYRE, will have enough momentum to tug this south back inland.
1 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1044
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#191 Postby plasticup » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:55 pm

Can't remember a time when I've seen the models more discordant on a well-established system. GFS makes nothing of it, ICON and CMC push a Cat 1-2 all the way across the gulf. Really curious what the NHC will make of it all.
0 likes   

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1044
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#192 Postby plasticup » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:56 pm

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#193 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Also remember that the stronger/deeper this becomes the less likely the perturbations in the shrinking GYRE, will have enough momentum to tug this south back inland.


This would also "eliminate" the 2nd system that some models showed.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11463
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#194 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:58 pm


This will put the entire gulf states on notice.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11686
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#195 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:59 pm

The NHC forecast track has is it staying offshore.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#196 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:59 pm

Wow, this is all so very clear now. :lol:
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18871
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#197 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:00 pm

low level cloud lines really starting to speed up as this pulls away from the coast and all quads are friction free...

looks like we are about to have a big old convective burst shortly..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11463
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#198 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:01 pm

I think if the NHC sticks with that track forecast, then they will have really bump the intensity. Majority of the solutions that take this north also have it as a respectable hurricane.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3393
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#199 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:02 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#200 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:04 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think if the NHC sticks with that track forecast, then they will have really bump the intensity. Majority of the solutions that take this north also have it as a respectable hurricane.


Those that take it that far north also move it more toward the central Gulf coast too, right?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests