ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Ubuntwo
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#201 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:09 pm

The NHC mentions two possible scenarios:
The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week.

We could see two tropical cyclones by the end of the week.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#202 Postby xironman » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:12 pm

Basically in one of the few places that could support development

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#203 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:13 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:The NHC mentions two possible scenarios:
The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week.

We could see two tropical cyclones by the end of the week.


That will be wild if that happens, I don't recall ever happening before.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#204 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:17 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I think if the NHC sticks with that track forecast, then they will have really bump the intensity. Majority of the solutions that take this north also have it as a respectable hurricane.


Those that take it that far north also move it more toward the central Gulf coast too, right?

I think it's too far out to say for sure, but it would definitely put the central gulf in play. Just need to see if it can remain away from land in the short term, and see if the upper level conditions will be conducive for it to deepen if/when it moves north.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#205 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:19 pm

5 PM discussion still looking at two centers rotating around the broader circulation with lots of uncertainty about which or if one center becomes dominant. Big sloppy mess across a wide area that is hard to micro analyze unless the convection focuses beneath the mid level center.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#206 Postby Fester » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:20 pm

Is this storm likely to be stronger or is it the possible new cyclone?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#207 Postby TorSkk » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:21 pm

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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#208 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:21 pm

I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#209 Postby psyclone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:21 pm

Well what a mess of a forecast. plenty of time for us to watch things evolve. At least now that we have a designated system we get a new forecast every 6 hours from the smart people. Hurricane season...when everyone's favorite time is 5 and 11 (4 and 10 for the central gang)..
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#210 Postby xironman » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:24 pm

Nimbus wrote:5 PM discussion still looking at two centers rotating around the broader circulation with lots of uncertainty about which or if one center becomes dominant. Big sloppy mess across a wide area that is hard to micro analyze unless the convection focuses beneath the mid level center.


The current location is basically on the beach in a not too bad environment, low shear for the most part, minimal dry air, and upper anti-cyclone. If it pops over the next day it could just dominate and take out the second center.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#211 Postby Kazmit » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:33 pm

Is it only possible for a second storm to form if this one dissipates over land? Could another one form if this heads north into the Gulf sooner than expected?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#212 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:33 pm


I don't think its some NHC agenda to prop up storm count. I think the technicalities they use is what's confusing. It's almost certain that Amanda's LLC dissipated completely. However I also feel like since TD-3 is mainly the remnants of Amanda, this should be called Amanda. Reason why is we've seen systems in the past that form in the ATL MDR, struggle and become remnant low's, and then when they find a better environment they re-strengthen but keep their names.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#213 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

I don't think its some NHC agenda to prop up storm count. I think the technicalities they use is what's confusing. It's almost certain that Amanda's LLC dissipated completely. However I also feel like since TD-3 is mainly the remnants of Amanda, this should be called Amanda. Reason why is we've seen noticeable systems in the past that form in the ATL MDR, struggle and become remnant low's, and then when they find a better environment they re-strengthen but keep their names.

This situation is different because it's also a basin crossover, which only has storms keep their name if they maintain status as a TC the whole way through.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#214 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:38 pm

NHC's first forecast closely follows ICON, although it runs just a little higher than the consensus in the near term.

AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 0, 0N, 0W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 12, 0N, 0W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 24, 0N, 0W, 31, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 36, 0N, 0W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 48, 0N, 0W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 60, 0N, 0W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 72, 0N, 0W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 84, 0N, 0W, 37, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 96, 0N, 0W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 108, 0N, 0W, 45, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2020060118, 03, ICON, 120, 0N, 0W, 50, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#215 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.


Frances is when I witnessed my first Houston flood from a tropical cyclone. Got stuck at a gas station @ Montrose & W. Alabama for about 4 hours. I believe it was a Diamond Shamrock back then.

I'm thinking this will be a similar system....a June GOM slopfest.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#216 Postby Gums » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:46 pm

Salute!

I don't like the eastrern track showing up now. Was about 15 miles from Alma in 1966, early June that year. Being on west side, it was a nothing-burger, but methinks it was the overall strength. Michael was about 50 n.m. from here, but our eye clinic in Panama City was hit very hard, amd they were on the "weak" Side!!

We Panhandle folks have seen enuf last two years. Hopefully, we'll have a good rain event all along the northern Gulf coast.

Besides, maybe the sucker could blow a lotta virus doofers away.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#217 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:53 pm

their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#218 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:54 pm

That upper-level vort is weakening now.
Better chances now for development.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#219 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:57 pm

floridasun78 wrote:their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?


Yes. High pressure building in to its north will send it west. But that’s low confidence as of now. Way too far out.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#220 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:57 pm

Oh boy, this one has roared to life far sooner than I thought it would.

I sure hope this isn't an Audrey 1957 type scenario, but that's the vibe I'm getting (setup, location, time of year, and projected track). :eek:

Stay safe everyone and think good thoughts. :sun:
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