ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#221 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.


So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19391
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#222 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:22 pm

SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.


So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


Upper TX coast landfall with flooding TX and LA
0 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2056
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#223 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:28 pm

SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.


So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.
0 likes   

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1044
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#224 Postby plasticup » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.


So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


Upper TX coast landfall with flooding TX and LA


What do you think of Florida? I know that is 6-7 days out but do you care to give us a wild speculation?
0 likes   

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#225 Postby La Breeze » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:30 pm

floridasun78 wrote:their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.
0 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#226 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.


So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.


No shot calling, he referred to a specific system so I was curious what his thoughts are.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1775
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#227 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:33 pm

La Breeze wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.


One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2027
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#228 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:33 pm

Florida will get some rain but this won’t be a Florida system
0 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2056
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#229 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:33 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.


No shot calling, he referred to a specific system so I was curious what his thoughts are.


I don’t think anyone except the man upstairs could accurately predict where this is going right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1384
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#230 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:33 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm still thinking 2 separate storms. Second may form near the northern edge of the gyre next weekend. Reminds me very much of Frances in 1998. That's what I expect in the Gulf this weekend.


So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.


He is a Pro-Met, he has information than us, so I believe a lot of what he says, don't say it is too early, a week isn't a lot of time.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#231 Postby La Breeze » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:34 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Oh boy, this one has roared to life far sooner than I thought it would.

I sure hope this isn't an Audrey 1957 type scenario, but that's the vibe I'm getting (setup, location, time of year, and projected track). :eek:

Stay safe everyone and think good thoughts. :sun:

Although I was quite young, I do remember Audrey - I've also lived through many others including Rita, I certainly hope that we don't experience any of this again. My grandfather always told me, "Never turn your back on the Gulf" - I have found this to be true. The Gulf holds lots of surprises.
4 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1384
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#232 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:35 pm

La Breeze wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.



Which channel KATC or KLFY??? No matter what it looks like we will be getting a lot of rain and possible flooding, so going to Rockefeller Wednesday for some crabbing.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#233 Postby La Breeze » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:35 pm

SoupBone wrote:
La Breeze wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.


One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.

"hard right turn"?
0 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1384
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#234 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:36 pm

La Breeze wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Oh boy, this one has roared to life far sooner than I thought it would.

I sure hope this isn't an Audrey 1957 type scenario, but that's the vibe I'm getting (setup, location, time of year, and projected track). :eek:

Stay safe everyone and think good thoughts. :sun:

Although I was quite young, I do remember Audrey - I've also lived through many others including Rita, I certainly hope that we don't experience any of this again. My grandfather always told me, "Never turn your back on the Gulf" - I have found this to be true. The Gulf holds lots of surprises.


I don't even want to think about an Audrey like storm coming in with everything going on right now, this will be horrible if that happens.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1384
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#235 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:37 pm

La Breeze wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
La Breeze wrote:Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.


One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.

"hard right turn"?


I think they mean after making a hard left turn at Vermillion Bay going West until around Galveston Bay and turning hard right.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#236 Postby La Breeze » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:37 pm

Blinhart wrote:
La Breeze wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:their talk about going texas but cone came out have it going toward central part of gulf not texas do you all track more west later in week?

Local weather met here just stated that he believes (at this time) that this system could make its way north toward the LA coast and then scrape our coast as it turns west towards upper TX coast. We'll see as time goes by, I suppose.



Which channel KATC or KLFY??? No matter what it looks like we will be getting a lot of rain and possible flooding, so going to Rockefeller Wednesday for some crabbing.

KATC
0 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#237 Postby La Breeze » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:38 pm

Blinhart wrote:
La Breeze wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
One of the models showed that earlier taking a hard right turn into Texas following it scraping across the Louisiana coast.

"hard right turn"?


I think they mean after making a hard left turn at Vermillion Bay going West until around Galveston Bay and turning hard right.

Ah, ok, got it.
0 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2056
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#238 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:39 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.


He is a Pro-Met, he has information than us, so I believe a lot of what he says, don't say it is too early, a week isn't a lot of time.


Models are all over the place. Central Texas coast to Florida panhandle are all in play. Ensemble spreads is wide. You can’t let your guard down.
0 likes   

wayne1701
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 10
Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:38 pm

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#239 Postby wayne1701 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:43 pm

Over the last 30+ years I have seen many of these cyclones turn Southwest into the mountains of Mexico and dissipate.
0 likes   

davidiowx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 336
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:07 am
Location: Richmond, TX

Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#240 Postby davidiowx » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:24 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
So a central Texas landfall with a lot of flooding for the Greater Houston region?


It’s a week out. Too early to call shots.


He is a Pro-Met, he has information than us, so I believe a lot of what he says, don't say it is too early, a week isn't a lot of time.


While he does have more info than us, a week is a significant amount of time for track adjustments and potential impacts from a storm.

However, a week is not a lot of time to be prepared. It’s Hurricane season and everyone along the gulf coast should be getting their supplies, kits and plans ready. It’s a little tougher with everything going on but now is the time to start.
2 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests