Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by radar data from Mexico near latitude 18.9 North,
longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near
3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A
motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over
eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:
Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with
the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center,
with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center.
Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in
the central convective features, along with an increase in
convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which
previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports
from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt
exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The
same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb.
The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery
indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt.
There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land
interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion
should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this
afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone
inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next
day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good
agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on
the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge
over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical
storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By
72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the
southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly
steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4
over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are
in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with
only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift
out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the
consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.
Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning
before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening
is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after
landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far
inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain
relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the
rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones.
But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and
GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker
and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND