ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

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ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:37 pm

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
2100 UTC MON JUN 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 90.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.8N 92.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 92.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 91.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Campeche westward to Puerto de Veracruz

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a
slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay
of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz and adjacent portions of Guatemala. This
system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum
rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of
Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Recent satellite data and surface observations from Mexico show
that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather
over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and that the center has moved over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche. Although the deep convection has
waned somewhat, there is evidence of banding in both visible
satellite imagery and recent radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico.
Based on these data, advisories are being issued on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which is in
agreement with earlier ASCAT data.

The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of
Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally
conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast is in line with much of the intensity guidance and calls
for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with
some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the
system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche. After that time,
the system's intensity will depend on how much it interacts with
land. Although the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
take the cyclone inland over southern Mexico, the NHC forecast
keeps it just offshore and shows the cyclone maintaining tropical
storm strength. Later in the period, the guidance suggests that
the system could strengthen over the south-central Gulf of Mexico,
but the latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low
confidence.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. The system
has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains
embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward,
and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of
days. On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the
southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and
confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high. After
that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week. The latter portion of both the track and intensity
forecast are of quite low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Re: ATL: THREE - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:37 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a
slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay
of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz and adjacent portions of Guatemala. This
system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum
rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of
Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: THREE - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This heading at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a
even slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern
Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz, portions of Guatemala and the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is also expected to produce rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over parts of El Salvador and
Honduras. Isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches are
possible in the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, Chiapas and
portions of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Satellite imagery, along with radar and surface data from Mexico,
indicate that the depression has changed little in organization or
strength since the previous advisory. There are a couple of small
clusters of convection near the center, while the more concentrated
convection is occurring in ragged bands well removed from the
center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the surface
data and continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is now westward or 270/6. The evolution of this
system during the next several days remains quite uncertain. The
Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to make a slow
counter-clockwise loop inside a larger gyre over Central America
during the next 2-3 days, with the center moving near the coast of
the Bay of Campeche. This would be followed by a more northward
motion with some increase in forward speed as a mid-/upper-level
trough develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. On the other
hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the depression turning southward and
making landfall over the coast of Mexico in the next 24-36 h,
followed by dissipation. These two models subsequently develop a
second low pressure area northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at
around 120 h due to the interaction of the aforementioned gyre and
trough. The new forecast track follows the previous forecast in
showing TD-3 as being the system that moves northward across the
Gulf. However, the new track brings the center closer to the coast
of Mexico and is slower to move it northward than in the previous
advisory. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be
a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3.

In the current track forecast scenario, slow strengthening should
occur during the next 24-48 h while the cyclone moves over the warm
water of the Bay of Campeche in an environment of light to
moderate shear. After time, proximity to the Mexican coast should
limit strengthening, and it is possible that the current forecast
intensities could be generous. The more northward motion near the
end of the forecast period is likely to be accompanied by an
increase in southerly shear, so only modest intensification is
forecast during that time. Overall, the new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast. An alternative intensity
forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over
Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by
the GFS and ECMWF.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and
intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either
of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 19.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 19.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 93.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 18.5N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 18.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 19.5N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 22.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: THREE - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:38 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or
southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern
Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Satellite data, Mexican radar data from Sabancuy, and nearby surface
observations indicate that the depression has become a little better
organized and has strengthened slightly since the previous advisory.
Radar data indicate a mass of convection has developed north of and
over the low-level center, and a broken curved band has also formed
in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity has been increased
to 30 kt based on a 0201 UTC ASCAT-A overpass that showed a couple
of 27-kt vectors located in the northeastern quadrant outside of the
most active convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this
morning.

The initial motion is westward or 270/02 kt. The latest 00Z model
guidance continues to show the depression remaining embedded within
the larger Central American gyre for the next few days, with the
gyre gradually contracting around the depression, with the two
entities merging into one system by 72 hours. Similar to last
night, tonight's model runs have again abandoned the development of
a secondary low east of the depression and moving it northward
toward the U. S Gulf coast. This may be due in part to the lack of
Mexican and Central American upper-air data at 0000 UTC, except for
the Belize sounding. But the global and regional models are in
overall in good agreement on the cyclone remaining trapped in a
break in the subtropical ridge to the east and west of the
depression. By 72-96 hours, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to
drop southward out of the southern plains and into into the ridge
weakness and act as a catalyst to nudge the depression slowly
northward on days 4 and 5. Until that time, the cyclone is
expected to meander over the the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3
days, possibly making landfall along the coast of extreme
southeastern Mexico and the west coast of Yucatan. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and
brings the center close to the coast of Mexico on days 2 and 3. It
should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone
near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3 due to land
interaction and the possible formation of a secondary cyclone.

Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low while the
cyclone remains trapped in the Bay of Campeche during the next few
days, only slow strengthening is expected due to possible land
interaction and intrusions of dry air caused by southwesterly
downslope flow coming off of the mountains in the state of Chiapas,
which already appears to be underway based on satellite and radar
imagery. After the cyclone starts moving northward, increasing
southerly shear is expected to inhibit any significant or rapid
strengthening. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that
the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate
completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and HWRF
models.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity
forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the
current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of
Guatemala and El Salvador. The depression is expected to bring
heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras
and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.6N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.8N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 19.0N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.7N 91.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: THREE - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:47 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (5 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or
southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern
Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: THREE - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:01 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward
this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of
Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very
close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at
30 kt for now. Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with
fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm
should occur today. The official intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus. The intensity forecast later in the period is
dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the
northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain. For now,
the intensity forecast will remain conservative.

The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt. The
cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the
Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving
slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico. Global models
show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones
until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should
begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico
coastline. The official track forecast closely follows the
dynamical model consensus.

At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low
confidence. However, for the next couple of days, the main threat
from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring
additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala,
Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather
office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: THREE - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is
forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward through tonight,
and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal is
forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche
tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The
depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states,
Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches,
with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific
coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these
areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.5 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the
southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern
Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern
Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of
Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the
coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains
inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back
over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.
Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10
to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25
inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala,
and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20
inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35
inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated
winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the
cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested
that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The
current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a
little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening
could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive
atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely
that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday
which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is
forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should
limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is
close to the latest LGEM guidance.

Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone
is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears
to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern
Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped
between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for
the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping
movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico
on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly
flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and
near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track
forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is
roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread
in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in
the NHC forecast at days 4-5.

Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:59 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal is
meandering generally southward near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn
toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday
night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over
eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the
Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance
plane and surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
from the center. An automated weather station on a Mexican offshore
platform recently measured a sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to
62 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.
Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10
to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25
inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala,
and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20
inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35
inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal
is moving toward the south near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a turn
toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday and
move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. The
center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday
night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength
is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening
is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is
expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently
reported at an automated observing site in Ciudad del Carmen.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Campeche. Cristobal is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches
over parts of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Quintana Roo,
Yucatan and Oaxaca. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts
of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches,
with isolated amounts of 10 inches, is expected across portions of
Honduras and Belize. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening. There
has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the
east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery. An Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm
this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak
SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an
elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than
the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of
45 kt. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its
final pass through the center.

Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been
meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast
drift evident. The storm is expected to move slowly southward or
southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered
over eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore
over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on
Wednesday. After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to
move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early
Thursday. After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow
the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There has been a slight eastward
adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a
slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little
change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track
forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track
guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in
the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land
interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center
reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days.

Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before
Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is likely on
Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters
land. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental
conditions are expected to support re-intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less
aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected
consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of
the system after it interacts with land.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:06 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by radar data from Mexico near latitude 18.9 North,
longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near
3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A
motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over
eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with
the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center,
with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center.
Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in
the central convective features, along with an increase in
convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which
previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports
from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt
exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The
same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb.

The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery
indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt.
There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land
interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion
should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this
afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone
inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next
day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good
agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on
the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge
over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical
storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By
72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the
southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly
steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4
over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are
in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with
only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift
out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the
consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning
before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening
is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after
landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far
inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain
relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the
rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones.
But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and
GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker
and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:58 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:55 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 92.0 West.
Cristobal is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h),
and a turn toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward
the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday.
On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of
eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristobal
will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some
re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg



Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center
of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the
west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft
and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity
was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved
inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the
large circulation will take some time to spin down. It is
anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow
evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to
emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is
predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly
shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and
this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is
significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be
dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.

The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt.
Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a
cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn
northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of
Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The
official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER LAND NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
MEXICO...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 91.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn
toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward the
north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern
Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over
the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at
Ciudad del Carmen during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward
the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast
and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short
distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm
force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported. The current
intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and
maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory. Since the system
has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a
slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical
depression by late Thursday. Once the center re-emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday,
re-intensification should begin. However, the model guidance
currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf
will not be very conducive for strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the
high end of the guidance suite. As has been noted, however, there
is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when
it approaches the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the
limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3
kt. Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain
over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico. Later in the forecast period, an
increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move
back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus
TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.3N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:42 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal
has been nearly stationary over the past few hours but a slow
southeast or east motion should resume later tonight. A turn toward
the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday.
On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of
eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone
moves over land, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical
depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected
to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING VERY LITTLE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal
has been nearly stationary this evening but a slow southeast or
east motion should resume overnight. A turn toward the
north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday, and a general
northward motion should continue through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...6
to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy,
Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the
previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone
remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the
circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del
Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure
of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has
taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern
Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to
occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast
while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but
the overall environment is not expected to be particularly
conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast
shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory,
and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model
and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several
hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence
overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving
northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion
should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the
northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track
forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is
close to the various consensus models.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern
Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:43 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 91.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and
along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Cristobal.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.9 North, longitude
91.3 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4
km/h), and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward
the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent
northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, and over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression during the next
several hours. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...
Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico indicate
that Cristobal has resumed a southeastward drift and moved farther
inland. There is no data from near the core of the storm, so the
maximum intensity is set to a possibly generous 35 kt based on
continuity from the previous advisory and earlier scatterometer
data that showed 35 kt winds over water to the northwest of the
center.

The initial motion is a drifting 125/2 kt. A slow eastward motion
is expected today. After that, southerly flow associated with a
strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing
mid-/upper-level trough over northern Gulf of Mexico should turn
Cristobal northward with some increase in forward speed. Later in
the forecast period, a north-northwestward or northward motion is
expected as Cristobal interacts with the trough, with most of the
track forecast guidance bringing the system to the northern Gulf
coast between 96-120 h. The new forecast track has no significant
changes from the previous track, and it lies near the various
consensus models.

Cristobal should weaken to a depression in the next few hours as
the center drifts farther inland. Little subsequent change in
strength is likely through 24 h due to much of the circulation
remaining over water. By 36 h, the global model guidance suggest
that winds will increase over the Gulf of Mexico well northeast of
the center, so the new intensity forecast calls for Cristobal to
regain tropical storm status at that time. From 48-120 h, Cristobal
is forecast to interact with the trough over the Gulf of Mexico,
which is likely to cause dry air entrainment and some shear. The
intensity guidance suggests these conditions will allow only
gradual intensification, so the new forecast follows the trend of
the previous forecast in showing a peak intensity of 50 kt before
landfall on the northern Gulf coast.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed,
the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf
coast the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the
center.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2. Even though Cristobal is inland, tropical storm conditions will
continue along and near the coast of Mexico for a few more hours,
especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern
Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.9N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:42 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and
along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Cristobal.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.8 North, longitude
91.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4
km/h), and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward
the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent
northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression later this
morning. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...
Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:44 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 91.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and
along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Cristobal.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 91.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h), and this motion should continue through midday. A turn
toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a
subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of extreme
northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico today and tonight. The
center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...
Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

With the center remaining inland, Cristobal has continued to
weaken, and the cloud pattern is becoming disorganized. The
current intensity is reduced to 30 kt for this advisory, and the
warnings for the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico have been
discontinued. Assuming that the center will emerge over the Gulf of
Mexico in about 36 hours, re-intensification should begin by
tomorrow evening. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is not
expected to be very conducive for intensification, with moderate
southwesterly shear and some dry mid-level air. Not surprisingly,
the intensity guidance, such as HWRF and LGEM, are not very bullish
on strengthening. The official forecast remains a little above the
latest intensity model consensus. It should still be noted,
however, that there is some uncertainty as to the strength of
Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast due to
the limitations of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The cyclone continues to move slowly east-southeastward, or 120/3
kt. Over the next day or so, Cristobal is likely to move along a
partial cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre. By
tomorrow night, the system should have begun moving northward into
a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This generally northward
motion should continue until the center crosses the northern
Gulf coast. There have been no important changes to the NHC track
forecast, which is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus aids.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed,
the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf
coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the
center.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far
southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also
extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local
weather office for more information.

2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals
center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued
tonight or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.6N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 19.0N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 06/1200Z 22.9N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/0000Z 24.7N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/1200Z 26.7N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1200Z 30.8N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 35.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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