EPAC: FOUR-E - Remnants

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EPAC: FOUR-E - Remnants

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:45 pm

95E INVEST 200628 0000 10.0N 95.0W EPAC 15 NA
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:49 pm

NHC 78E GENESIS00 20200628 0000 143N 1043W 295 067 1006 1008 0371 13 111 -999 -999 -999 -999 S -999 -999 -999 -999 -9 -99N -999W -999 -999 -999 -999

EP, 95, 2020062800, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1043W, 25, 1006, DB,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:20 am

Not to bad:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:38 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
a few hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Further development of
this system is possible while the trough moves northwestward at
about 15 mph before reaching cool waters on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:07 pm

Was looking like a shear pattern tropical cyclone around five hours ago but seems to have fallen apart.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:22 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico
have become better organized today. Although the system does not
currently have a well-defined center, additional development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form tonight or Monday as
the system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time,
additional development will become unlikely as the disturbance moves
over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:23 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Was looking like a shear pattern tropical cyclone around five hours ago but seems to have fallen apart.


Take this back. Looks great but it's quickly running out of time.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:43 pm

Took long to consolidate due to its large size. But looks a lot better than Boris.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:18 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952020 06/29/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 32 29 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 32 29 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 5 4 11 19 23 24 30 35 42 44 44 49 39 39 22 23 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 -4 1 -3 0 -6 -3 -6 -5 -3 -2 1
SHEAR DIR 235 255 255 236 231 236 221 221 215 224 223 233 244 259 279 297 287
SST (C) 27.1 25.8 25.0 23.9 23.1 22.1 21.5 21.1 20.8 25.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 136 122 114 102 93 82 75 71 69 117 136 137 137 136 134 131 127
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 1 1 0 3 0 5 1 6 4 7 5 8
700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 63 61 56 50 48 43 43 42 43 44 42 47 42 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 7 6 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -5 -14 -17 -9 2 14 10 18 8 4 16 -21 -23 -40 -26 -11
200 MB DIV 93 78 31 18 15 9 19 13 22 10 37 40 33 12 13 -12 1
700-850 TADV 3 -2 0 4 1 0 -1 -6 -3 -7 -8 2 -2 2 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 459 413 335 280 276 225 175 116 -40 46 -96 -374 -641 -828 -935 -956 -974
LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.2 20.1 21.1 21.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 27.6 29.6 32.0 34.4 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.4 111.2 111.9 112.5 113.5 114.0 114.1 113.9 113.5 112.9 112.0 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 7 7 8 10 12 12 13 11 7 5 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 2 2 1 1 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -13. -25. -35. -43. -47. -51. -53. -59. -60.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -6. -19. -31. -41. -46. -50. -55. -59. -66. -66.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 109.4

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.41 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 8.1% 5.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.7% 7.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:27 pm

This is clearly a tropical cyclone at this point.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:00 pm

Agreed :uarrow:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:08 am

Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has decreased during the past several hours. The
disturbance is moving northwestward toward colder water, but it
could still briefly become a tropical depression if showers and
thunderstorms redevelop on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:10 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952020 06/29/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 24 20 20 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 24 20 20 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 4 9 12 13 15 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 266 257 251 237 234 233 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.0 23.9 23.3 23.2 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 112 100 93 91 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 62 60 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -10 -14 -20 -22 -28 -18 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 69 42 15 13 11 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 0 4 -1 -3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 463 419 395 386 389 394 381 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 6 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.8 110.8

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:33 am

SAB had 1.0/1.0.

00z Euro initialized this @ 1003mb.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:46 am

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has re-developed in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. The disturbance could still become a short-lived tropical
depression later today or tonight if the thunderstorm activity
becomes better organized before moving over colder waters Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:18 am

Looks like a depression
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:00 pm

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system could become a short-lived tropical
depression later today or tonight before moving over colder waters
on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:00 pm

29/1730 UTC 19.5N 111.7W T2.0/2.0 95E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:39 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:43 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952020 06/29/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 17 19 19 23 26 27 29 29 30 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 20 22 27 33 38 36 41 45 43 37 38 34 35 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -6 -5 -5 -4 -4 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 245 238 231 228 222 212 203 202 214 212 224 231 247 252 268 263 266
SST (C) 25.5 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.2 22.1 21.5 20.6 22.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 23.3 24.3 27.2 27.4 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 118 105 101 100 93 81 76 67 84 138 138 137 96 105 135 137 136
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 0 1 1 3 2 4 2 4 6 8 9 12
700-500 MB RH 65 63 58 59 54 48 45 40 42 40 40 43 42 45 44 49 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -20 -29 -12 6 15 22 5 -12 10 1 40 5 38 5 31 24
200 MB DIV 17 10 9 -2 11 20 17 41 36 59 29 21 -1 34 -2 65 -11
700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 0 3 0 -1 -4 -5 -11 0 -4 2 2 3 5 17
LAND (KM) 398 378 379 359 318 241 212 37 -28 0 -275 -532 -775 -971 -999 -999 -999
LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.5 24.8 26.6 28.9 31.2 33.7 35.9 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.7 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.2 114.4 114.0 113.8 113.3 112.8 111.9 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 6 8 10 12 12 13 11 11 8 8 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 1 2 2 2 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 11. 12. 10. 7. 7. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -7. -16. -27. -38. -44. -49. -52. -57. -65. -69.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -21. -33. -41. -49. -54. -60. -67. -73. -80. -83.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 112.1

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.22 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 06/29/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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