ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

All past storm threads will be archived here by year.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:42 am

96L INVEST 200628 1200 12.5N 36.5W ATL 20 1009


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120966
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 928
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:51 am

I highly doubt we’d get anything out of this, not even a weak TD, before it gets gutted by SAL or shear. Still, it’s impressive that we’re already watching AEWs for development this early in the year.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
Siker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 884
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Siker » Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:33 am

It's over waters <26C right now and will continue to be so for at least 24 hours, going off CDAS.
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1136
Age: 21
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:40 am

I'm surprised this gets invested now when there is no longer any model support. SHIPS guidance has shear increasing to near 50 kt in about 36 hours, so even a 20% development chance might be generous.
2 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11686
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:07 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I'm surprised this gets invested now when there is no longer any model support. SHIPS guidance has shear increasing to near 50 kt in about 36 hours, so even a 20% development chance might be generous.


I was about to say the same thing, they are being too generous with a 20% chance when the usual over aggressive SHIPS model doesn’t even develops into a TD.
2 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:29 am

This came unexpected and out of nowhere. No model support whatsoever, next!
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18836
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:15 am

Nice well defined circ developed pretty quickly overnight with minimal convection. Now exposed and with dry air everywhere it will have a tough time. has a good moisture feed... but sustaining convection will be a problem.
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18836
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:44 am

Either way, this is a incredibly strong and well defined wave for this time of year.
1 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
alan1961
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 725
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:58 am
Location: Derby, Derbyshire, England
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby alan1961 » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:45 am

As Aric said it has a decent circulation on it but the dry air and shear awaits... :wink:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:43 pm

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is moving west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next 2
to 3 days. After that time, environmental conditions are forecast
to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
MoliNuno
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby MoliNuno » Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Either way, this is a incredibly strong and well defined wave for this time of year.


The fact we're seeing such rigorous waves this far out in June is highly concerning going forward.
1 likes   
Andrew (1992), Irene (1999), Katrina (2005), Wilma (2005), Irma (2017)

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18836
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:24 pm

appears to be a second circ to the south the on the north side of the wave. a little convection is firing. The circ to the south has a decent buffer from the dry air.

worth watching.

Image
1 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Socalhurcnegirl227
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 223
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:appears to be a second circ to the south the on the north side of the wave. a little convection is firing. The circ to the south has a decent buffer from the dry air.

worth watching.

https://i.ibb.co/0hHdypT/58906045.gif


Im wondering if any portion of this wave could actually end up keeping enough energy to traverse the lower latitudes and find more favorable conditions in the carib or southern gulf
1 likes   
"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3740
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:28 pm

They went with an invest at 36W rather than wait.
Its got some mid level rotation and low level convection and they are giving it up to 20% chance of development with no model support.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1631
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby toad strangler » Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:59 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:20 pm

Down to 10%.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is moving west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Shower
and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has become
limited, and environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1043
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby plasticup » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:28 pm

What a funny little Invest. Looks nothing special, about to splat into a wall of dry shear. I wonder what they see that gives it 10%
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18836
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:31 pm



That is exactly what was happenig at least pretty clear before the sun set. circ was pretty clear on the south portion of that convection.
1 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7250
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:25 am

Yup, same old story.
A LL vort fractures off and heads NW (near 15N) while the wave moves due west.
Anticyclone over head on the LL vort of the wave (just below 10N) with some moderate convection and lightning.


Image

Image

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:47 am

Wow. the 06z best track changed to below 10n.

Location: 8.5°N 46.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Storm Archives”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests