ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:48 am

Defintely a protected pouch. Nearly at 50W.
Been surrounded by a good mid-level moisture envelop on its journey across the pond.
Convection firing along a dry line which has been sweeping SAL out of the way.
Pretty good for this time of year, maybe a harbinger of stronger waves to come.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#22 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:03 am

Looking at 250mb level.
TUTT anchored to the north.
96L just south of an associated Anticylonic Rossby Wave Break (ARWB).
Moving into an area of good UL Divergence.
The magic usually happens when waves get to 50W - very classsic.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#23 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:17 am

Strenghtening TPW convergence.
If convection persists, likely will see a closed circulation.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#24 Postby alan1961 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:22 am

First visible of the day, surprised its held on this long with the way the conditions are,
will it crash into south america or sneek into the graveyard and die there :lol:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#25 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:29 am

All the models have been trying to kill this the last couple days.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:22 am

pretty amazing we have a fully separated MDR tropical wave this time of year with convection... albeit sheared now since it went to far north. had the shear not increased we would likely be seeing a developing TC.

The southern portion down around the ITCZ still needs to be watched as it is in a better upper environment.


actually the first images from visible this morning are showing a clear vort max with the southern area and MLC slightly offset.

shear and moisture down that way are looking ok for the next couple days. until it lifts north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#27 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:51 am

Aric Dunn wrote:pretty amazing we have a fully separated MDR tropical wave this time of year with convection... albeit sheared now since it went to far north. had the shear not increased we would likely be seeing a developing TC.

The southern portion down around the ITCZ still needs to be watched as it is in a better upper environment.


actually the first images from visible this morning are showing a clear vort max with the southern area and MLC slightly offset.

shear and moisture down that way are looking ok for the next couple days. until it lifts north.

Indeed, the first visibles are telling. It has about 36 to 48 hours to organize and gain some latitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#28 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:54 am

Aric Dunn wrote:pretty amazing we have a fully separated MDR tropical wave this time of year with convection... albeit sheared now since it went to far north. had the shear not increased we would likely be seeing a developing TC.

The southern portion down around the ITCZ still needs to be watched as it is in a better upper environment.


actually the first images from visible this morning are showing a clear vort max with the southern area and MLC slightly offset.

shear and moisture down that way are looking ok for the next couple days. until it lifts north.


Yesterday, I saw a hefty outflow boundary coming up from the south to nail the southern-portion of the vort max.
Looks like it survived this morning - amazing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#29 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:56 am

Looks like its firing off a tower at 10.5N 49.1W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#30 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:01 am

700mb vort strengthening and organizing

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#31 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:10 am

I'd give this wave close to a 0% chance of developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#32 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:06 am

Actually looks good on multi-satellite IR analysis.
Appears wind field just above the boundary layer (~700mb) is closed off.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#33 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:16 am

Moderate convection firing directly over the CoC.
IR satellite indicates convection to the north of the CoC, along 10N, is gradually strengthening.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#34 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:54 am

I have to say that 96L has really suprised me in preserving its structure and fighting off the SAL, which I had thought would have taken its toll on it by his time just 36 hours ago. It is so very difficult for waves to come out of the MDR this early in the season in late June, so to see 96L doing this well is quite impressive to say the least.

It will be very interesting to see if and how much longer 96L will persevere as it traverses westward, especially as it approaches the Caribbean later in the week. We shall see. 96L may surprise after all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#35 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:58 am

GCANE wrote:Actually looks good on multi-satellite IR analysis.
Appears wind field just above the boundary layer (~700mb) is closed off.


https://i.imgur.com/DcYYfjy.gif

https://i.imgur.com/qZ4bUBk.gif


yeah it definitely trying this morning... it has a good buffer zone from the SAL do to the wave to the east of it.

main thing holding it back right now is the mid level easterly shear .. if that subsides a little this will have a better chance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#36 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:40 am

Strong rain rate

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#37 Postby drezee » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:02 am

wxman57 wrote:I'd give this wave close to a 0% chance of developing.

Climo, SAL, and common sense agree...but we have all seen crazier things
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#38 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:15 am

Satellite albedo imagery seems to show cirrus is dissipating somewhat.
Lower level clouds becoming exposed.
A definite arc to them.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#39 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:40 am

50W and right at the end of the African Easterly Jet.
Moving into an area of good mid-to-upper level divergence.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#40 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:58 pm

Deep convection firing over that earlier vort max....
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