ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3841 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:28 am

GCANE wrote:If you are a believer in GFS, check this out

https://i.imgur.com/5POi2Xq.png

Trough has gone positive :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3842 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:28 am

GCANE wrote:If you are a believer in GFS, check this out

https://i.imgur.com/5POi2Xq.png



Is that due north or extreme NNW from current location? I’m curious how much of a difference it cross the center of andros will make since every model had him clipping the north.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3843 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:29 am

5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3844 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:30 am

Looks like to my untrained eye it's going to re emerge off Andros well south of NHC and models...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3845 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:31 am

GCANE wrote:5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.


GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3846 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:32 am

Still seems a tad south and west of forecast
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3847 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:32 am

I dunno man, ‘57 seems too preoccupied with his vacation time these days to really trust if he’s being neutral :sun:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3848 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:32 am

Just an observation but look at the split in movement of moisture over north Florida. Some going northeast and the other southwest. I think the high pressure over the gulf is pretty strong and maybe some influence from Isaias of the moisture flowing southwest.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3849 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:33 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
GCANE wrote:If you are a believer in GFS, check this out

https://i.imgur.com/5POi2Xq.png



Is that due north or extreme NNW from current location? I’m curious how much of a difference it cross the center of andros will make since every model had him clipping the north.


Actually has it north of Andros at +12hr.
Here it is down the road a little more at +30hr


Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3850 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:34 am

Center is about to be exposed here soon. Looks to be struggling with producing its own convection. This is no longer a hurricane IMHO. However, I am not an expert.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3851 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:36 am

Seems like Barry has some competition for the ugliest looking hurricane. Isaias is really struggling this morning.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3852 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:37 am

Canelaw99 wrote:
GCANE wrote:5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.


GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?


CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3853 Postby crimi481 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:37 am

Noticing moisture feeds from the south. None last night. May reorganize?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3854 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:37 am

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3855 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:38 am

GCANE wrote:5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.

https://i.imgur.com/tz9j8nR.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eTd9Ppt.gif


Surface base heating and convection over land later may help feed the west side of Isalsa.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3856 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:38 am

toad strangler wrote:I dunno man, ‘57 seems too preoccupied with his vacation time these days to really trust if he’s being neutral :sun:
True..i had posted earlier in the week about his wishcasting the storm away so he gets his comp days
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3857 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:39 am

toad strangler wrote:I dunno man, ‘57 seems too preoccupied with his vacation time these days to really trust if he’s being neutral :sun:

Where's Aric?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3858 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:40 am

GCANE wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
GCANE wrote:5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.


GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?


CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.
We are sunny in fll..ripe to destabilize
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3859 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:40 am

Good to see that Isaias has weakened overnight. I would not write off this storm. Things can change quickly in the tropics. Once Isaias moves off Andros it will move over the gulf stream. Gulf stream might work its magic once again......MGC
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3860 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:40 am

crimi481 wrote:Noticing moisture feeds from the south. None last night. May reorganize?


Problem is there is nothing but dry air to pull from to its west. Mid level WV shows this to the be the case and it is not just a small amount either. We shall see though. Anything is possible, for sure. 8-)
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