ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3861 Postby typhoonty » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:41 am

Isaias is likely not a hurricane right now, the recon data indicates a generous maximum intensity right now of 60 knots. That being said, I'd bet my bottom bitcoin that NHC will not lower intensity below 65 kt at 11. Isaias has seen rapid changes in intensity due to it's small core size. The customers here are the taxpayers of the general public, and since this could restrengthen to a hurricane over the gulf stream, they will likely leave it as such. Public safety and awareness comes first, meteorological preciseness can wait until the TCR.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3862 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:42 am



You can see the NW motion there. I’m interested in what it does when it’s fully over the water again.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3863 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:42 am

GCANE wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
GCANE wrote:5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.


GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?


CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.


It sounds like you’re saying there’s a chance of rain later?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3864 Postby flamingosun » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:42 am

GCANE wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
GCANE wrote:5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.


GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?


CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.


Well, crappola. Sometimes it's better to remain ignorant! Now I'm more worried
Last edited by flamingosun on Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3865 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:42 am

Barfing out a huge outflow boundary on its Western half. Isaias is struggling right now

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3866 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:43 am

GCANE wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
GCANE wrote:5500 CAPE to the NE of FL, 5000 to the west.
Clear skies over the state. No CIN.
Ominous.


GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?


CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.


The nudge west come from the erosion of the leading edge of the trof due to thunderstorms.
Models never factor in mesoscale effects like this.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3867 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:46 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
crimi481 wrote:Noticing moisture feeds from the south. None last night. May reorganize?


Problem is there is nothing but dry air to pull from to its west. Mid level WV shows this to the be the case and it is not just a small amount either. We shall see though. Anything is possible, for sure. 8-)


just wait a few hours, the afternoon thunderstorms will be coming soon...

it is really hot here in Central Florida today
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3868 Postby artist » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:47 am

Visioen wrote:My take is it's going to keep fluctuating and I think NHC's track is pretty accurate by now.

If you are within the cone, you can be hit. The hurricane forecast is not a line.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3869 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:47 am

Please notice there are over 70 guests browsing this forum now. Think twice before you post your definitive opinions about the storms Impending demise. Lots of curious Floridians are looking in trying to get information to help them make decisions.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3870 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:48 am

Down to 80 mph this advisory.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3871 Postby Steejo91 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:48 am

Looks like the center is trying to become exposed out of the decaying cirrus above it.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3872 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:50 am

It’s getting stretched west to east with the shear and on a weakening trend, that is also why the LLC is now moving more WNW out from under the MLC and upper level cyclone. The storm is not stacked and dry air is going to impede it more. Not telling anyone to lower their guard along the Coasts but you can clearly see what is taking shape on visible and WV imagery. This is good news and hopefully it weakens to nothing more than weak TS unable to inflict much erosion and damage along the coasts.
This is my opinion only and please go by your local officials and official weather forecasts.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3873 Postby Visioen » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:50 am

artist wrote:
Visioen wrote:My take is it's going to keep fluctuating and I think NHC's track is pretty accurate by now.

If you are within the cone, you can be hit. The hurricane forecast is not a line.

Lol even when you're out of the cone you can be hit. It's just about probabilities. Notice also how I didn't say "perfectly accurate".
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3874 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:51 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:Please notice there are over 70 guests browsing this forum now. Think twice before you post your definitive opinions about the storms Impending demise. Lots of curious Floridians are looking in trying to get information to help them make decisions.


The weakeaning trend is actually worse for FL. Weakening in the short term means more west and could still come back in intensity over gulf stream.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3875 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:51 am

Center right over the center of the island.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3876 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:55 am

Gonna end up in the keys if it keeps its current heading only kidding but i think this ends up on Western side of guidance.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3877 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:56 am

11am track doesn’t appear to have changed much at all. Still calling for a cat 1 just off of palm beach in 24 hrs
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3878 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 am

NHC sticking to its guns about it just staying off the coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3879 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 am

Dean4Storms wrote:It’s getting stretched west to east with the shear and on a weakening trend, that is also why the LLC is now moving more WNW out from under the MLC and upper level cyclone. The storm is not stacked and dry air is going to impede it more. Not telling anyone to lower their guard along the Coasts but you can clearly see what is taking shape on visible and WV imagery. This is good news and hopefully it weakens to nothing more than weak TS unable to inflict much erosion and damage along the coasts.
This is my opinion only and please go by your local officials and official weather forecasts.


As of 11am NHC still forecasting an 80mph cat 1 approaching SFL
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3880 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:59 am

This thing looks dreadfully sick on IR this morning. The deepest convection near the center is confined between Andros and Eleuthera. Cloud tops have been warming, with storms collapsing and pushing outflow to the west. That could, incidentally, actually help to moisten the environment heading toward Florida. I don’t think it’ll be down for too long.
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