ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3901 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:29 am

Actually it makes no sense. Almost impossible for it to hit the GFS forecast point now. Will end up West of it.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3902 Postby cp79 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:30 am

Steve wrote:
cp79 wrote:Time to put this thing on life support. It looks bad but that’s great news for Fla and parts north.


It may or may not hit Florida. But this post won't age well even today.


Just trying to be honest. Not trying to scare or encourage people. It is struggling badly and trying to be honestly optimistic, not pessimistic. But I’m not writing it off yet. It just has some major obstacles ahead of it. But it still needs to be watched of course.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3903 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:33 am

cp79 wrote:
Steve wrote:
cp79 wrote:Time to put this thing on life support. It looks bad but that’s great news for Fla and parts north.


It may or may not hit Florida. But this post won't age well even today.


Just trying to be honest. Not trying to scare or encourage people. It is struggling badly and trying to be honestly optimistic, not pessimistic. But I’m not writing it off yet. It just has some major obstacles ahead of it. But it still needs to be watched of course.


Well going based off your earlier prediction it should be an open wave. How did we get from your prediction of an open wave to an 80mph hurricane? Not trying to be rude or anything but I think you're a bit too bearish on this one. Never turn your back on a TC going over the gulf stream.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3904 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:33 am

center is nearly off the NW coast of Andros per recon.

satellite clearly showing the center now..

but the low level cloud deck to the west as started to thicken..

new convective burst is likely on the way..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3905 Postby nativefloridian » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:33 am

Blown Away wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis
Is that the circulation center moving NW about to exit Andros on the NW side. Zoom in.


It appears so. Tolakram pointed out the possible center peeking out over Andros a few posts back.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3906 Postby robbielyn » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:33 am

Blown Away wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis
Is that the circulation center moving NW about to exit Andros on the NW side. Zoom in.

Yes i believe so.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3907 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:33 am

cp79 wrote:
Steve wrote:
cp79 wrote:Time to put this thing on life support. It looks bad but that’s great news for Fla and parts north.


It may or may not hit Florida. But this post won't age well even today.


Just trying to be honest. Not trying to scare or encourage people. It is struggling badly and trying to be honestly optimistic, not pessimistic. But I’m not writing it off yet. It just has some major obstacles ahead of it. But it still needs to be watched of course.


Yeah, you won't ever get any hate from me cp. I'm just saying that even yesterday, there was a weakening period on several of the models before it came back with a vengeance. We'll see how it plays out. What's interesting to me and was partially covered in the models thread, is the lack of intensification pulling up past GA and SC. That part of the Atlantic begs for storms to intensify. But fortunately that doesn't really look to be the case. Maybe it will be moving faster or maybe there will be too much SWly shear ahead of the trough
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3908 Postby Michele B » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:34 am

Hubs just pointed out that TWC has never put coordinates for CoC for this storm.'

Is this the new protocol, or is this storm just that hard to pin down?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3909 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:34 am

Y’all really writing off a system that the NHC has classified as a Cat 1 as of an advisory made 30 minutes ago.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3910 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:center is nearly off the NW coast of Andros per recon.

satellite clearly showing the center now..

but the low level cloud deck to the west as started to thicken..

new convective burst is likely on the way..


Can u post the recon stats to show that?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3911 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:37 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Y’all really writing off a system that the NHC has classified as a Cat 1 as of an advisory made 30 minutes ago.


To be fair, it doesn't look that good right now. The convection is split a little, and it will need to reconsolidate in the next blowup.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3912 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:40 am

Steve wrote:
wx98 wrote:This thing looks dreadfully sick on IR this morning. The deepest convection near the center is confined between Andros and Eleuthera. Cloud tops have been warming, with storms collapsing and pushing outflow to the west. That could, incidentally, actually help to moisten the environment heading toward Florida. I don’t think it’ll be down for too long.


None of this should be a surprise to anyone who looks at the IR simulations. Nor will it be a surprise later when it blows back up.

HRRR 10:00am
https://i.imgur.com/4lGCPuS.png

HRRR 10:00pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020080114/hrrr_ir_us_13.png

NAM 10:00am


HRRR working that Gulf Stream magic...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3913 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:43 am

12z GFS shifts track a little West. Florida landfall.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3914 Postby cp79 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:44 am

DestinHurricane wrote:
cp79 wrote:
Steve wrote:
It may or may not hit Florida. But this post won't age well even today.


Just trying to be honest. Not trying to scare or encourage people. It is struggling badly and trying to be honestly optimistic, not pessimistic. But I’m not writing it off yet. It just has some major obstacles ahead of it. But it still needs to be watched of course.


Well going based off your earlier prediction it should be an open wave. How did we get from your prediction of an open wave to an 80mph hurricane? Not trying to be rude or anything but I think you're a bit too bearish on this one. Never turn your back on a TC going over the gulf stream.


I’m actually amazed it’s held its winds, not gonna lie. By looking at it on satellite, it’s close to what I expected it to look like when I made that prediction 24 hours ago, I just didn’t expect the winds to stay up. We’ll see what happens over the next 24 hours. Shear is still gonna be staying strong along with dry air. It’s got a huge fight on its hands, that’s for sure. I’m just hoping shear and dry air win the battle.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3915 Postby psyclone » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:45 am

Levi Cowan's general bearishness last night looks to have been on point.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3916 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:45 am

LCfromFL wrote:
GCANE wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
GCANE - can you explain in layman’s terms for us amateurs, please?


CAPE is a measure of unstable air.
5000+ is extreme.
That will fill in over FL later today.
Skies are clear this morning which rapidly heats the land.
The rising heat mixed with the very unstable air will set off large thunderstorms later today.
The moist remains of the thunderstorms will flow into Isaias adding fuel and likely give it a nudge west.


:uarrow: Great explanation, GCANE.


Much thanks
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3917 Postby FireRat » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:46 am

Seems like good news today, Isaias seems to be weakening due to the shear and to me looks like it will drop briefly to a TS today, before probably bumping back up to a Cat 1 later tonight or early tomorrow.

We could've woken up to a strengthening Cat 2 today en route to eastern FL, thank goodness for the shear and dry air doing a number on its structure! Strong TS conditions are the likeliest effects during the worst of the storm IMO, along coastal sections of Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and points north along east-central FL.

Those of us in the Carolinas should still be on guard in case Izzy decides to go for the Cat 2 over the gulfstream before crashing ashore in SC or NC on Monday. Most likely though, I think the NHC has the intensity forecast pretty well on this one. TS to Cat 1.
Last edited by FireRat on Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3918 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:47 am

I drove around town this morning in Palm City and life is moving along as normal. No shutters up except for 1 house so far that I've seen.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3919 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:47 am

Steve wrote:
wx98 wrote:This thing looks dreadfully sick on IR this morning. The deepest convection near the center is confined between Andros and Eleuthera. Cloud tops have been warming, with storms collapsing and pushing outflow to the west. That could, incidentally, actually help to moisten the environment heading toward Florida. I don’t think it’ll be down for too long.


None of this should be a surprise to anyone who looks at the IR simulations. Nor will it be a surprise later when it blows back up.

HRRR 10:00am
https://i.imgur.com/4lGCPuS.png

HRRR 10:00pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020080114/hrrr_ir_us_13.png

NAM 10:00am


Yes the real test will come when the center moves off of Andros in the next hour or so. When that happens, we’ll see how quickly (if at all) Isaias can ramp back up. He’ll have some relatively More attractive conditions per latest NHC discussions so ...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3920 Postby Steejo91 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:48 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Y’all really writing off a system that the NHC has classified as a Cat 1 as of an advisory made 30 minutes ago.


I don't think anyone is writing it off when the Gulf Stream is to its north, but it's pretty evident that the core of Isaias s taking a pretty big hit from the dry air, and will be a problem throughout its trek to FL, even with just light shear. Nobody has said Isaias is dead, but in the short term, its going to take a lot to rebuild its CDO. Pretty much what the NHC Discussion has said.
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