ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3921 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:48 am

Going to have to turn sharply north to get to Euro's forecast. A Palm Beach County landfall is not off the table here. Looks like it is going exactly as 12Z euro yesterday has it, and that run went into boca.
Last edited by DestinHurricane on Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3922 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:49 am

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3923 Postby crimi481 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:49 am

Good moisture feed from south. Storm changed tires- oil change. May bulk up soon
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3924 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:51 am

Recon found some unflagged SFMR values of nearly 60 kt between Andros and Nassau, but with only about 45 kt FL to match at that point in time. This would support the IR presentation of collapsing thunderstorms, as this could be from downdraft winds.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3925 Postby FireRat » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:51 am

wxman57 wrote:Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.


i think so too, looks like it's down to a TS today. Perhaps it regains Cat 1 once passing south FL tonight into tomorrow as it heads north for the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3926 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:55 am

wxman57 wrote:Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.


57, wouldn’t a weaker storm track much closer to SFL?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3927 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:56 am

wxman57 wrote:Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.


I think once it hits that Gulf Stream it will go back up to a cat 1 as it scrapes the FL coast...it did the same thing yesterday then built back up
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3928 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:57 am

If somehow Isaias holds on to Cat 1 status AND landfalls in FL it would be the first hurricane landfall on the FL E Coast since a Cat 1 Katrina in 2005.
That said, landfall is absolutely a huge question mark even though the 12z GFS come REAL CLOSE and even more questionable is the intensity of the storm then. If I had to bet now I'd side on a TS landfall somewhere between Jupiter and Melbourne.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3929 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:57 am

Last night's Euro did a very good job of showing Isaias deep convection wine down this morning, it forecasts it to return later today to later collapse and so on while tracks along the FL coast through Sunday.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3930 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:58 am

Off-White clouds building up quickly in Broward County right now... Blue skies over my house a couple hours ago are gone.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3931 Postby Airboy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:58 am

Looks like the center is exiting from the island on the western tip of the island.
Last edited by Airboy on Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3932 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:59 am

Airboy wrote:Looks like the center are exiting from the island on the western tip of the island.

Yes it does. At this heading, it will go right over Bimini later.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3933 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:00 am

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3934 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:00 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Off-White clouds building up quickly in Broward County right now... Blue skies over my house a couple hours ago are gone.

Yeah I noticed it was getting that way as I was driving around.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3935 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:00 am

StormingB81 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.


I think once it hits that Gulf Stream it will go back up to a cat 1 as it scrapes the FL coast...it did the same thing yesterday then built back up


Water temperatures are not the problem now, it's wind shear. It could strengthen when it turns north and tracks WITH the upper-level flow.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3936 Postby crimi481 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:02 am

Seems to be moving more west?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3937 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:03 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Off-White clouds building up quickly in Broward County right now... Blue skies over my house a couple hours ago are gone.

Looks like some broken bands of showers are moving that way.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3938 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:04 am

NDG wrote:Last night's Euro did a very good job of showing Isaias deep convection wine down this morning, it forecasts it to return later today to later collapse and so on while tracks along the FL coast through Sunday.

https://i.imgur.com/nMWYaVy.gif


I think I need to wine down this morning. :D
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3939 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:05 am

Thank goodness I can just shut the weather channel off now this weekend and get stuff done. So happy that it’s fallen apart so much overnight. And development chances are only going to get worse. In MY opinion might still end up with a minimal tropical storm raking the east coast, unless it falls apart faster
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3940 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:06 am

GCANE wrote:Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.


Models are about to be way off. center moving wnw..

Low level cloud deck beginning to really thicken.. new convective burst coming soon

Image
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