ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4181 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:25 pm

God awful IR presentation currently. It took me awhile to find the actual storm. Yikes, at least for this storm yikes. Praying it falls apart. I am not buying into convective bursts tonight. I think we are seeing what this storm will look like for the most part throughout its life.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4182 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:28 pm

The first center drop is 996 mb
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4183 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:29 pm

Breezy and gusty now in palm city. Feels good
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4184 Postby Condor » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:29 pm

WxEp wrote:It actually appears to me that the shear has begun to reduce slightly in Isaias' vicinity/near term future path. Also, if you look at the past several 3 hour increments, it appears the anticyclone to the south of the system may be making its way toward a more favorable location for Isaias. Whether or not that is enough to make a difference at this point remains to be seen.

Would like to make a GIF of the last several 3 hour increments but don't have the ability to do so right now. Here is the source of what I'm looking at: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4185 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:29 pm

Naked Swirl Alert!

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4186 Postby drewschmaltz » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:30 pm

It's a valuable learning experience to watch a semi naked swirl enter the warm waters near the gulf stream and struggle. It underpins the importance of all key factors. That said, I'm trying to understand better where the moisture is going to come from. On vapor loops I can usually identify feeders. Where is this going to come from?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4187 Postby alienstorm » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:30 pm

This storm is crawling I would say no more than 10 mph, also wnw seems appropriate.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4188 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm thinking we can discount that 150kt SFMR wind...


Yep, no fence straddling there. I'm with you on that one!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4189 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:32 pm

Nimbus wrote:Only 1 tenth of one percent reporting power outage in Broward county thus far so those squall lines are probably 40 mph max winds. It doesn't seem to be that far off track and if the core stays even just offshore it will likely redevelop once the shear lets up. Could blow some nasty squalls up with tornado's when the core gets closer to the coast but I think Florida lucked out.
that's a real victory considering th power grid is suspect at best in sofla :flag:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4190 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:32 pm

alienstorm wrote:This storm is crawling I would say no more than 10 mph, also wnw seems appropriate.

My opinion is more NW, just judging by the way it has moved since leaving Andros.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4191 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:36 pm

Plane is finding a little stronger flight level wind NW of Nassau. SFMR still about 40 kt (give or take a couple kts). Maybe they will sample some of these new towers N and NE of the LLC.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4192 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:37 pm

Convection really firing off North of center.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4193 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:38 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Only 1 tenth of one percent reporting power outage in Broward county thus far so those squall lines are probably 40 mph max winds. It doesn't seem to be that far off track and if the core stays even just offshore it will likely redevelop once the shear lets up. Could blow some nasty squalls up with tornado's when the core gets closer to the coast but I think Florida lucked out.
that's a real victory considering th power grid is suspect at best in sofla :flag:


It sure is off track as a weaker storm.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289658146223345665


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4194 Postby otowntiger » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:40 pm

Now the question of the hour is: what does the NHC do with the intensity at 5:00? I cannot believe they would keep it at hurricane status. It’s obvious to everyone including the average Joe general public who doesn’t pay much attention that this thing is no longer a hurricane and is even possibly just a depression at the moment. So why not just come clean be realistic and downgrade. Then upgrade as necessary? We’ll see.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4195 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:41 pm

The new convective blowup may draw the LLC more northward underneath it, correct?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4196 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:43 pm

drewschmaltz wrote:It's a valuable learning experience to watch a semi naked swirl enter the warm waters near the gulf stream and struggle. It underpins the importance of all key factors. That said, I'm trying to understand better where the moisture is going to come from. On vapor loops I can usually identify feeders. Where is this going to come from?


Right? This storm (or I should say the overall conditions around the storm) is really odd. Like, there's almost always either one "tap-root" type feeder band, or impressive banding all around the center, or at least some limited banding.... somewhere. Just seems that the air around the storm is humidity depleted. Even now, on visible there plenty of evidence of low level convergence to the west and south of the storm. Looks like all spotty cumulus or limited topped CB's. None of that flow seems to be able to fill in and form convective feeder bands though.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4197 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:43 pm

otowntiger wrote:Now the question of the hour is: what does the NHC do with the intensity at 5:00? I cannot believe they would keep it at hurricane status. It’s obvious to everyone including the average Joe general public who doesn’t pay much attention that this thing is no longer a hurricane and is even possibly just a depression at the moment. So why not just come clean be realistic and downgrade. Then upgrade as necessary? We’ll see.


I believe they will downgrade it. It’s the right thing to do. They can always upgrade if the system intensifies
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4198 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:44 pm

It is pretty amazing to go back and look at the long range models 9 days ago and see where the storm is now. I think some of the models did an outstanding job in predicting the track.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4199 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:44 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:God awful IR presentation currently. It took me awhile to find the actual storm. Yikes, at least for this storm yikes. Praying it falls apart. I am not buying into convective bursts tonight. I think we are seeing what this storm will look like for the most part throughout its life.


Why with the weakening shear?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4200 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:44 pm

wx98 wrote:The new convective blowup may draw the LLC more northward underneath it, correct?


yes, this is a definite possibility
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