ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1193
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4221 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:00 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?


Maybe because the circulation was so small it couldn’t feed off of any water during that time?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1193
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4222 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:01 pm

About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1326
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4223 Postby Kazmit » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

Its very flat but it’s also big- larger than all the other Bahaman islands combined.
3 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1193
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4224 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:02 pm

Storms definitely filling back in right now

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1095
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4225 Postby curtadams » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:03 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?
I don't think Andros Island had much to do with it. It looks like the main issue was dry stable air getting sheared in at midlevels and snuffing deep convection. Andros would limit the LLC's ability to loft wet moist air to resist that, but I think it was secondary.
4 likes   

hohnywx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 320
Age: 29
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4226 Postby hohnywx » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:04 pm

Jr0d wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

The EURO, NAM, HWRF and a few others show deeping later on. Also the pressure is still fairly low, another indicator that he could make a quick comeback.

The potential for Isaias to restrengthen is there, hence hurricane warnings are still valid. It appears that Isaias is currently starting to convection around the center. If it can maintain this convection over night, it will likely be a hurrucane by 5am.


Thank you for this...UKMET does as well.
1 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1231
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4227 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:04 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

in my opinion, it was over it for a long enough for stable air/land friction from the island to disrupt it. plus with shear, dry air, and cutoff outflow, it was the perfect setup to weaken it for the time being.
2 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7192
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4228 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:06 pm

Kazmit wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

Its very flat but it’s also big- larger than all the other Bahaman islands combined.

I’ve just never heard of this from any of the other storms that passed over the island. Makes sense and good to know!
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4857
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4229 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:06 pm

Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.
4 likes   

WilmingtonSandbar
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 477
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:11 pm
Location: Southport, NC

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4230 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:07 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.



Wow! I would have thought that after the storms of the 80s and 90s, utilities all would have been underground in coastal Florida by now.
0 likes   
Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 358
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: Boca Raton, FL. Formerly Destin, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4231 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:09 pm

Still think it may stay a hair to the left of new NHC track. Looks to be headed for south Bimini island. Of course it will wobble but that is the trajectory as of now.
0 likes   
The above is my opinion and not an official forecast. Consult the NHC for official forecasts.

Erin 1995, Opal 1995, Danny 1997, Earl 1998, Georges 1998, Ivan 2004, Dennis 2005, Irma 2017, Nate 2017, Michael 2018

jhpigott
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 464
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4232 Postby jhpigott » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:10 pm

SFLcane wrote:Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.


What do the probabilities for TS winds in WPB say now after the 5pm update?
1 likes   

Ubuntwo
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 453
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4233 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:11 pm

jhpigott wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.


What do the probabilities for TS winds in WPB say now after the 5pm update?

We're up to 90%
0 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
CFLHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 207
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
Location: Floriduh

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4234 Postby CFLHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:13 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.



Wow! I would have thought that after the storms of the 80s and 90s, utilities all would have been underground in coastal Florida by now.


You mistake Florida for being a fully developed state. There’s still a lot of pioneer types and second home folks who could care less about Florida’s infrastructure which is why we are not as prepared for hurricanes as we could be with underground utilities, sufficient escape routes, and extra shelters.

It’s very frustrating as a full time resident.
Last edited by CFLHurricane on Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
6 likes   
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1691
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4235 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:13 pm

jhpigott wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.


What do the probabilities for TS winds in WPB say now after the 5pm update?


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2048.shtml?
0 likes   
Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5329
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Plantation/Sunrise, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4236 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:14 pm

SFLcane wrote:Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.


Man, I was just about the make the exact same observation :lol:
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19564
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4237 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:14 pm

Looks like a 50-55 kt (60-65 mph) TS now. Looks like the NHC did downgrade it to a 60kt TS, thinking the plane might find stronger wind later on.
7 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1260
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4238 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:15 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

The guidance did not show this becoming a hurricane right off the coast of hispanola .
The pressure is still low enough to support a hurricane just needs a blowup of convection
over the gulf stream.
I will trust the NHC on this.
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7919
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4239 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:16 pm

Hot tower getting stronger.
Big lightning firing off.
The Cuba infeed is hitting the last of the dry slot.
West Texas dryline effect.
At the end of DMIN.
Anti-cyclone coming over this.
South FL is lighting up
I see a bad moon risin.

Image

Image
10 likes   

eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1193
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4240 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:16 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.



Wow! I would have thought that after the storms of the 80s and 90s, utilities all would have been underground in coastal Florida by now.


You’d think so but...Florida...

Every storm one small gust and it’s out
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests