ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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alienstorm
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4241 Postby alienstorm » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:17 pm

Lighting being detected in the blowup just north of the LLC. This will be interesting in another hour or so.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4242 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:17 pm

The mesoscale models are still pretty bullish. They have done well this year.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4243 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:19 pm

Nice pop of convection just to the north of center. Does the center stiff it's nose at it and move on by LOL, or wobble north and try to snuggle itself underneath for the evening?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4244 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:19 pm

Not to get excited, but he’s on his way back.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4245 Postby gfsperpendicular » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:20 pm

Some pink tops, it's been a while.
Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4246 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:21 pm

wx98 wrote:Not to get excited, but he’s on his way back.

To me.. this is the most exciting part of tracking. Watching a storm come back from the dead. Katrina was my favorite to watch.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4247 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:21 pm

GCANE wrote:Hot tower getting stronger.
Big lightning firing off.
The Cuba infeed is hitting the last of the dry slot.
West Texas dryline effect.
At the end of DMIN.
Anti-cyclone coming over this.
South FL is lighting up
I see a bad moon risin.



This convective burst is not messing around. Almost two full hours now since this burst started, and there are no signs of it slowing down: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4248 Postby jaxfladude » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:21 pm

Feeling better about any serious impacts of Isaias for Northeast Florida....hopefully nothing to serious for rest of CONUS Eastern Seaboard...I hope the Bahamas fared okay and prayers....the Caribbean Islands looked to have gotten raked pretty good sadly....This is not the big threat of the season, right. More serious threats likely?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4249 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:24 pm

The storms over FL as slowly starting to erode the dry air.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4250 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:25 pm

Here's my latest afternoon take on Isaias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-YUUcaL5R0
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4251 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:25 pm

I'm wondering if the convection firing to the north could also draw the center somewhat north in the short-term. Any kind of wobbles like this matter a lot now for a track this close to the Florida coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#4252 Postby fci » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:25 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

They want people to still pay attention should it get a burst and re-intensify.
For those of us in the Hurricane Warning area, a TS with 60-70 and minimal Hurricane with 75-80 are basically the same thing.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4253 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:25 pm

jaxfladude wrote:Feeling better about any serious impacts of Isaias for Northeast Florida....hopefully nothing to serious for rest of CONUS Eastern Seaboard...I hope the Bahamas fared okay and prayers....the Caribbean Islands looked to have gotten raked pretty good sadly....This is not the big threat of the season, right. More serious threats likely?

100%

something else is likely going to threaten somebody
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4254 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:26 pm

Convection to the north could cause the LLC to tuck underneath it.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4255 Postby Steejo91 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:27 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:I'm wondering if the convection firing to the north could also draw the center somewhat north in the short-term. Any kind of wobbles like this matter a lot now for a track this close to the Florida coast.


I was curious about this myself. May see a northward jog of the LLC as the convection pressure falls. Looking at Miami radar, looks like the convection is starting to get tighter along the eyewall. Giving it the illusion of stalling/slowing.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4256 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a 50-55 kt (60-65 mph) TS now. Looks like the NHC did downgrade it to a 60kt TS, thinking the plane might find stronger wind later on.


They did show a 60kt unflagged SFMR wind a few minutes ago.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4257 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:29 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:I'm wondering if the convection firing to the north could also draw the center somewhat north in the short-term. Any kind of wobbles like this matter a lot now for a track this close to the Florida coast.

I was thinking the same thing earlier. That tends to happen with big blowups like this.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4258 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:29 pm

NHC finally acknowledged the dry air. It is having a serious effect in addition to the shear which is currently keeping most of the convection to the northeast quadrant. Oddly enough both are expected to diminish but not until it is east of northern Florida. But you never know...

Mid-level dry air:
Image

Shear 15-20 knots is not terrible but certainly not good:
Image
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4259 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:29 pm

Miss Piggy on the way
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4260 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:30 pm

I think it's logical for the LLC to be drawn more North to the new burst of convection. It actually looks to me like the convective burst is working it's way down to meet the LLC.
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