ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:14 pm

Only model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#2 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:19 pm

SHIP has strong CAT 2 in a week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#3 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:29 pm

Models have been trending to a more northward track instead of a Caribbean Cruiser. 12z Euro rams this into Hispaniola as a TC (it develops in only 72-96 hours), while the 12z ICON passes it over or near Puerto Rico as a Cat 1, similar to Dorian.

The NAVGEM is also on board with development. However, it doesn’t develop this until nearly a week out in the middle of the Caribbean. I’m very skeptical of the NAVGEM’s recent runs because it wants Gonzalo to track north and become a hurricane either near the Bahamas/Florida or in the Gulf, a scenario that seems very unlikely.
Last edited by aspen on Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:30 pm

* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922020 07/24/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 33 39 45 50 57 63 69 74 80 86 90
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 33 39 45 50 57 63 69 74 80 86 90
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 12 10 8 10 5 3 4 6 8 5 8 3 6 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 8 11 10 5 9 7 7 5 3 2 1 0 1 -5
SHEAR DIR 77 61 66 66 84 79 105 179 203 231 181 215 181 235 298 256 320
SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 125 130 133 136 136 134 137 136 130 137 138 138 141 143 142 140 147
ADJ. POT. INT. 124 130 133 136 136 134 137 136 130 137 138 138 141 143 142 139 147
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 70 69 72 71 70 65 60 58 57 55 51 54 49 50 49 54 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 68 66 62 63 65 66 58 37 30 41 44 41 39 44 54 52 38
200 MB DIV 63 23 24 65 82 53 4 27 -40 -23 -33 -23 -28 -16 -16 -4 7
700-850 TADV -4 -9 -11 -14 -13 -1 -3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 0 -1
LAND (KM) 526 650 773 885 1026 1354 1709 1735 1538 1270 1068 901 757 634 572 516 400
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.2 26.7 29.9 33.2 36.4 39.6 42.3 44.7 46.9 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 16 16 16 14 13 11 11 10 11 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 4 11 12 13 11 11 10 17 12 33 43 31 26 32 33 42 54

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 13. 19. 25. 30. 37. 43. 49. 54. 60. 66. 70.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 21.5

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922020 INVEST 07/24/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.0% 5.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 0.1%
Consensus: 1.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922020 INVEST 07/24/2020 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 27 33 39 45 50 57 63 69 74 80 86 90
18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 25 31 37 43 48 55 61 67 72 78 84 88
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 27 33 39 44 51 57 63 68 74 80 84
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#5 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:32 pm

Um oh boy!... :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#6 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:49 pm

SFLcane wrote:Um oh boy!... :eek:

https://iili.io/dIApRI.png


How do you access this on the site? Just signed up on there and can't find this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#7 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:52 pm

STRiZZY wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Um oh boy!... :eek:

https://iili.io/dIApRI.png


How do you access this on the site? Just signed up on there and can't find this.


Select “ model lab “
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#8 Postby Senobia » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:52 pm

SFLcane wrote:Um oh boy!... :eek:

https://iili.io/dIApRI.png


:shoot: No. I rebuke it. :shoot:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#9 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:55 pm

The CMC ensembles are similar to the Euro ensembles: :eek:

Image
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#10 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:57 pm

Meanwhile the GFS does absolutely nothing with this nor does the usually bullish CMC. But now all the other models do: JMA, NAVGEM, ICON, and UKMET. Surprised they tagged this so early.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#11 Postby crownweather » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:58 pm

STRiZZY wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Um oh boy!... :eek:

https://iili.io/dIApRI.png


How do you access this on the site? Just signed up on there and can't find this.


https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_global_cyclones.php & then select Spaghettios
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#12 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:09 pm

crownweather wrote:
STRiZZY wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Um oh boy!... :eek:

https://iili.io/dIApRI.png


How do you access this on the site? Just signed up on there and can't find this.


https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_global_cyclones.php & then select Spaghettios


Thank you guys for the help...

There's quite a few members that have a hurricane awful close or hitting the WC of FL :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#13 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:The CMC ensembles are similar to the Euro ensembles: :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/zBjVZWWq/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-33.png

If the CMC ensembles are going crazy like the Euro, then why has the main CMC model dropped 92L? It just seems odd, especially since it used to favor development and was able to sniff out Gonzalo well before the rest of the global models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:24 pm

ECMWF ensembles.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:28 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#16 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:29 pm

Another thing to watch for is whether a strong easterly wind surge at the upper-levels occurs in the next few days. Looks like that is another reason the GFS and CMC do not develop. These models stretch out the vorticity to the point it cannot develop once the wave finally hits more favorable conditions further west:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#17 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:Another thing to watch for is whether a strong easterly wind surge at the upper-levels occurs in the next few days. Looks like that is another reason the GFS and CMC do not develop and stretch out the vorticity instead:

https://i.postimg.cc/x1p4TFvZ/gfs-shear-nafr-9.png


CMC is garbage and GFS for some reason is playing catch up on every cyclone this yr. This wave has a lot going for it for starters a moist environment and a powerful convective pulse moving in next 2-3 days. This one could be a powerful hurricane in time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#18 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:Meanwhile the GFS does absolutely nothing with this nor does the usually bullish CMC. But now all the other models do: JMA, NAVGEM, ICON, and UKMET. Surprised they tagged this so early.


No reason not to tag it, its not like they're classifying a system that doesn't meet criteria--I think it just allows more detailed model runs. And the GFS has been completely useless this year which might be another reason they may have tagged it now, see if the models can zero in on it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#19 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:17 pm

Can anyone point me in the right direction for a list of computer model run times? I tried the search bar but couldn't find anything.
Trying to set up some alarms on my phone so I'll know when to watch them roll in for this potential TC. Thank you.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#20 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:29 pm

Yeah I think we can essentially toss the GFS for tropical genesis for now, could still be the one that gets it right but the recent track record is getting abysmal so I wouldn't lean very hard on it
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