ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2241 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:08 pm

0Z UKMET is nearly identical to the current NHC forecast, landfall in Martin County and then up the east coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2242 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:11 pm

NDG wrote:GFS timewise is now in tune or very close with the Euro which had been trending slower already with its forward speed.


Slowing down yet not further west. Clearly sounds like Isaias will be approaching a COL. Steering influences practically equalize just prior to the point where the trough digs just enough, and the ridge finally begins to wane, and Isaias' exit door to N. Carolina finally opens. If a Florida landfall hadn't occured by that time, it likely won't.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2243 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:19 pm

0z CMC landfall in the Miami area.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2244 Postby Nore » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:19 pm

CMC initialized with stronger ridgeing
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2245 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:19 pm

GFS Rainfall through the week
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2246 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:22 pm

Nore wrote:CMC initialized with stronger ridgeing


It moves immediately into South Florida. It's been western biased most of the storm's history, so you have to think it just missed the strength of the ridging. Or else it's right but kind of on its own for the 00z models.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2247 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:23 pm

UK Coordinates:

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2020 0 22.5N 76.1W 1001 42
1200UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.9N 77.3W 999 42
0000UTC 02.08.2020 24 25.0N 78.4W 998 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 36 26.1N 79.4W 997 44
0000UTC 03.08.2020 48 27.2N 80.1W 995 43
1200UTC 03.08.2020 60 28.4N 80.4W 994 47
0000UTC 04.08.2020 72 30.2N 80.0W 986 56
1200UTC 04.08.2020 84 33.0N 78.8W 967 71
0000UTC 05.08.2020 96 37.3N 76.6W 980 62
1200UTC 05.08.2020 108 42.3N 73.1W 984 46
0000UTC 06.08.2020 120 46.9N 69.0W 991 32
1200UTC 06.08.2020 132 50.5N 65.7W 996 35
0000UTC 07.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2248 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:26 pm

Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2249 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:27 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.

it did this last night too. hopefully it stays this time though.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2250 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:29 pm

Euro running.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2251 Postby Nore » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:30 pm

Steve wrote:
Nore wrote:CMC initialized with stronger ridgeing


It moves immediately into South Florida. It's been western biased most of the storm's history, so you have to think it just missed the strength of the ridging. Or else it's right but kind of on its own for the 00z models.

Yeah, my guess is its keeping it west due to it being so far off in terms of initial intensity. That westward motion into miami seems unreasonable given the current strength of the storm
Last edited by Nore on Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2252 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:31 pm

CMC is on the order of a hundred miles or so too far west. I' don't agree with this run of the CMC and feel like it's a western outlier (at least through FL/GA/SC).
Last edited by Steve on Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2253 Postby chancebreaks » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:32 pm

CMC 36 HRS
Last edited by chancebreaks on Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2254 Postby fci » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:33 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.

Trend is our friend (except Friday afternoon when the trend was west, lol)
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2255 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:34 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.


I’m not sure it’s good news, this storm has been running on the southern end of the guidance envelope it’s entire life, with hurricane Douglas the GFS/HWRF were to far to the right.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2256 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:34 pm

HMON 18 hours
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2257 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:36 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Euro running.


You are about a hour to early for the Euro.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2258 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:36 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.


I’m not sure it’s good news, this storm has been running on the southern end of the guidance envelope it’s entire life, with hurricane Douglas the GFS/HWRF were to far to the right.

The Canadian has shifted East also, let’s hope it’s a trend
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2259 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:36 pm

HMON 24 bypassing South Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2260 Postby chancebreaks » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:37 pm

It's not like the model coordinates ever check out exactly. So 10 miles east or 10 miles west doesn't really matter. It's just a computer spitting out the data, not the actual 'cane . Just like whatever NHC puts out, isn't necessarily what it will end up doing. Tell that to the people 15 years ago or w/e when the storm decided to make a right turn into the west coast of florida early. Or IRMA, Straight up the spine of the state. Probably should of posted this in discussion.

on topic, euro is coming... if it stays west, and doesn't big flux, i am leaning more towards it over gfs on this system.
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