ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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skillz305
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2281 Postby skillz305 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:02 am

EURO HOUR 48 00Z 8/1

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2282 Postby crimi481 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:02 am

Shows strong ridge?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2283 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:07 am

hour 54 shows landfall near Melbourne/ Cocoa Beach 999mb
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2284 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:16 am

Roughly 5-6 hours over Florida then back off shore and strengthening to 992mb and landfall just north of Charleston at about 80 hrs
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2285 Postby chancebreaks » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:31 am

It was inland on the last model run.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2286 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:36 am

00z Euro landfall:

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2287 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:01 am

Landfall ñear Indian River County/ Melbourne/ Brevard County
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2288 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:44 am

06z GFS shifts slightly west, stronger as well. Landfalls in Cape Canaveral - a true coast scraper. This is a game of inches, any wobble from this point in either direction has large ramifications
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2289 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:46 am

AdamFirst wrote:06z GFS shifts slightly west, stronger as well. Landfalls in Cape Canaveral - a true coast scraper. This is a game of inches, any wobble from this point in either direction has large ramifications


Pretty much rides the beach from Jupiter to Daytona.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2290 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:17 am

Closer look at the 06z GFS, it shifted around 10 miles west, we are now getting a good consensus between it and the 0z Euro. Fairly close on timing as well.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2291 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:48 am

NDG wrote:Closer look at the 06z GFS, it shifted around 10 miles west, we are now getting a good consensus between it and the 0z Euro. Fairly close on timing as well.

https://i.imgur.com/xXezFUf.gif
https://i.imgur.com/nUYPJSv.gif

What do you think folks here in NE Palm Beach County could expect from Isaias considering we’ll be on the west side?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2292 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:51 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:Closer look at the 06z GFS, it shifted around 10 miles west, we are now getting a good consensus between it and the 0z Euro. Fairly close on timing as well.

https://i.imgur.com/xXezFUf.gif
https://i.imgur.com/nUYPJSv.gif

What do you think folks here in NE Palm Beach County could expect from Isaias considering we’ll be on the west side?


If it keeps its current structure not, much. Let me see what the Euro shows.
Edit: Just checked the Euro, it shows at the most wind gusts near 50 mph at the most tomorrow around noon.
Last edited by NDG on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2293 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:56 am

06z HWRF is way off, out the window with this run.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2294 Postby jhpigott » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:38 am

06Z Euro out yet?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2295 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:04 am

jhpigott wrote:06Z Euro out yet?


Partially, it does show it go over the Central Part of Andros, then landfalls around Melbourne tomorrow night and goes further inland than the 0z. Also seems a bit faster than the 0z run.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2296 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:25 am

GFS ensembles, still a good clustering with landfall over SE Florida or very near, weak overall:

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2297 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:33 am

06z Euro shifted to the west, landfall Vero Beach.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2298 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:44 am

:uarrow: Yeah it looks like Indian River County/Vero Beach will be landfall, siiniar to the 00Z run from the EURO.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2299 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:53 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yeah it looks like Indian River County/Vero Beach will be landfall, siiniar to the 00Z run from the EURO.


Actually last night's 0z HR run did not showed landfall down there, Cape Canaveral is where it showed a quick landfall.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2300 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:15 am

NAVGEM back west:

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