ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2301 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:15 am

Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now :lol:

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2302 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:28 am

NDG wrote:Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/SnLPHy0.png


HWRF and HMON are terrible year over year. Always skewing the TVCN blend one way or other.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2303 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:52 am

NDG wrote:Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now

Image
They need to put HWRF into retirement effective today.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2304 Postby cp79 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:56 am

I definitely would lean towards the more west models right now given its look. It’s really hurting. A weak system is more likely to take a left turn. Already not a lot of models Last night had this thing going right over Andros.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2305 Postby Kat5 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:57 am

12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2306 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:01 am

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:Closer look at the 06z GFS, it shifted around 10 miles west, we are now getting a good consensus between it and the 0z Euro. Fairly close on timing as well.

https://i.imgur.com/xXezFUf.gif
https://i.imgur.com/nUYPJSv.gif

What do you think folks here in NE Palm Beach County could expect from Isaias considering we’ll be on the west side?


If it keeps its current structure not, much. Let me see what the Euro shows.
Edit: Just checked the Euro, it shows at the most wind gusts near 50 mph at the most tomorrow around noon.

So probably not even worth putting shutters up at this point.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2307 Postby Cat5James » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:08 am

Kat5 wrote:12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.

Also showing a landfall in So Flo
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2308 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:09 am

Kat5 wrote:12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.


And ends up west of the 6z
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2309 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:10 am

Kat5 wrote:12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.


But it still shifted west from previous two runs, making landfall in Palm Beach. For whatever is worth.
Edit: what is interesting that it trended stronger with Isaia's strength from previous two runs but still shifted west.

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Last edited by NDG on Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2310 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:10 am

12Z NAM shifts west, looks close to landfall in Palm Beach County. Looking at NDG’s image, looks like Boynton/Delray

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2311 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:12 am

tbf, it’s weaker than 06z
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2312 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:14 am

AutoPenalti wrote:tbf, it’s weaker than 06z


If anything looks a few mb stronger
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2313 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:33 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:tbf, it’s weaker than 06z


If anything looks a few mb stronger

Yeah, it does.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2314 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:00 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:tbf, it’s weaker than 06z


If anything looks a few mb stronger

Yeah, it does.


3km at 24 hours (12z run) has it at 985. If you go back to the 06z at 30 hours it showed 989mb. So slightly stronger. 12z HRRR stayed offshore. It does wobble toward the central FL Coast, but it doesn't really ever get ashore. Looks to still be in close call range. General consensus is a close call with either a hit in northern SC or southern NC.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2315 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:37 am

GFS a small chunk south at 18 and 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2316 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:39 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:GFS a small chunk south at 18 and 24 hours.


Indeed a south shift on the gfs.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2317 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:41 am

Looks like GFS landfall on Palm Beach
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2318 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:41 am

GFS looks like a Palm Beach County landfall (barely), no? Not sure on the hi-res but looks darn close
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2319 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:42 am

12z GFS shifts West

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2320 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:42 am

Image
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