ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2321 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:52 am

With a landfall as the 12z gfs suggests I just can’t see how palm beach and Broward county doesn’t see TS winds.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2322 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:16 am

Close up look at the 12z GFS for FL.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2323 Postby CFLHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:19 am

NDG wrote:Close up look at the 12z GFS for FL.

https://i.imgur.com/ouqghS9.gif


If the Palm Bay/ Melbourne shield Can block Dorian and Matthew, it can certainly handle this chump of a storm. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2324 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:23 am

NDG wrote:Close up look at the 12z GFS for FL.

https://i.imgur.com/ouqghS9.gif


Interesting how it deepens a little over Brevard country. From what I have seen on the shear maps, Central Florida might be a bit more favorable of an environment.

We are really splitting hairs right now. A little wobble either way can make a huge difference.

It is interesting that a few of the models showed the current collapse of convection followed by another burst later tonight.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2325 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:26 am

12z CMC brings this sloppy mess right into S FL where John Morales is planning a picnic.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2326 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:31 am

JMA takes this to Miami before turning north:

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2327 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:37 am

SFLcane wrote:With a landfall as the 12z gfs suggests I just can’t see how palm beach and Broward county doesn’t see TS winds.


Notice how the GFS turns the storm WNW over the Gulf Stream later tonight between hours 12-18. Then at the last second turns NNW as it stair steps. I expect a :eek: moment later this evening, tonight as convection should be blowing up and it heading towards the coast.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2328 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:39 am

gatorcane wrote:JMA takes this to Miami before turning


Looking at the path it seems to be on now, this seems strangely plausible to me. Going to be an interesting day....
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2329 Postby caneseddy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:39 am

HWRF is more slower and a bit more south and west and intensifying over the Gulf Stream
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2330 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:40 am

Anyone have the 06z Euro?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2331 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:40 am

Canelaw99 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:JMA takes this to Miami before turning


Looking at the path it seems to be on now, this seems strangely plausible to me. Going to be an interesting day....
Was about to say this. Not saying it will happen but wouldn't surprise me if it did at this point. Been moving far more West than North for a while. Still is showing no signs of an impending Northerly turn.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2332 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 am

caneseddy wrote:HWRF is more slower and a bit more south and west and intensifying over the Gulf Stream


Big shift SW here (considering the timeframe) heading WNW: :eek:

Just like the GFS turns it WNW over the Gulf Steam albeit stair-stepping.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2333 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:45 am

Turns NNW at the last second:

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2334 Postby caneseddy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:48 am

gatorcane wrote:Turns NNW at the last second:

https://i.postimg.cc/k4QrGQVB/hwrf-z850-vort-09-L-7.png


Looks like half/half landfall on the Space Coast
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2335 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:50 am

The HWRF is already a bit too far to the right looking at the storm which is moving more west near the western point of northern Abaco Island.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2336 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:51 am

Still big shift south HWRF...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2337 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:52 am

12z HWRF starts moving inland right at my latitude in Port Saint Lucie and bounces on and off the coast from there north.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2338 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:53 am

SFLcane wrote:Still big shift south HWRF...


Also shows a more moist environment than previous runs which may keep Isaias as a Hurricane.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2339 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:53 am

Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2340 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:54 am

HWRF has been pretty right biased so if its still the case this could potentially run through most of the peninsula. Probably low probability but you never know

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Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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