ATL: ISAIAS - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7078
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2341 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:55 am

HMON stays offshore and doesn't appear to strengthen coming up to the Carolinas.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2084
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2342 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:55 am

gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png


He might be weak, but he could be your landfall from the East :wink:
1 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 345
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Atlantic, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2343 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:58 am

gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

Image
Just my personal opinion but I think this is still too far east. Gonna have a tough time getting there from its current position unless it changes its course really soon.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
0 likes   
96'-Bertha 96'-Fran 98'-Bonnie 99'-Dennis 99'-Floyd 03'-Isabel 04'-Alex 05'-Ophelia 11'-Irene 14'-Arthur 16'-Matthew 18'-Florence 19'-Dorian 20'-Isaias (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7078
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2344 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:59 am

toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png


He might be weak, but he could be your landfall from the East :wink:


lmao

Canadian still likes Miami. It's been too far west all along, but you never know until it happens.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=6
1 likes   

jhpigott
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 464
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2345 Postby jhpigott » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:01 pm

12z HWRF simulated IR looks to bring some nasty weather to the SEFL Coast on up towards the Space Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=9
2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4857
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2346 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png


Wouldn’t that bring TS inland? Broward/PB
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4857
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2347 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:08 pm

:eek:

Eric Webb...

Worth noting that #Isaias will be ~ 100 km S-SW of the 6z HWRF & HMON 12hr forecast pts valid at 18z today. #Isaias weakening over Andros Isl. will have a big effect on impacts in the SE US. Expect a significant westward shift in upcoming computer model & official track forecasts.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289600962529759232


4 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21928
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2348 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:14 pm

SFLcane wrote::eek:

Eric Webb...

Worth noting that #Isaias will be ~ 100 km S-SW of the 6z HWRF & HMON 12hr forecast pts valid at 18z today. #Isaias weakening over Andros Isl. will have a big effect on impacts in the SE US. Expect a significant westward shift in upcoming computer model & official track forecasts.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 59232?s=21


12Z HWRF position in 6 hours. Don’t see it that far north. It would have to move north now.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21928
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2349 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:25 pm

HRRR shifts west. Looks like sustained TS winds for coastal Broward/Palm Beach County:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1024
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2350 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:29 pm

jhpigott wrote:12z HWRF simulated IR looks to bring some nasty weather to the SEFL Coast on up towards the Space Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=9


That would be quite the “blow up” from what Isaias looks like now if it verified!
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21928
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2351 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:30 pm

12Z GFS ensembles:

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5885
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2352 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:32 pm

toad strangler wrote:12z CMC brings this sloppy mess right into S FL where John Morales is planning a picnic.
Haha, it would be an epic fail if it landed more than 1mm S of Boca
1 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5885
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2353 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:35 pm

SFLcane wrote:Still big shift south HWRF...
The hwrf is a model without a plan, all it does is oscillate on intensity and track each run keeping us all wondering that maybe its on to something..like a hack golfer that hits enough decent shots to keep coming back
1 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5885
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2354 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

Image
im getting in my car and driving the 10 miles N on A1A to see the hwrf verify, unlikely
1 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5885
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2355 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach / Broward County one unforeseen wobble from it landfalling or skimming coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Px9Mg9fD/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-7.png


Wouldn’t that bring TS inland? Broward/PB
Yes, landfall deerfield beach/ boca line
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1228
Age: 66
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2356 Postby CourierPR » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:44 pm

Why the disparity between what we see on satellite and what has been forecast? This reminds me of Irene in '99 when it was supposed to pass south Florida in the Gulf but ended up going over my house in Pompano Beach.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21928
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2357 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:47 pm

Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.
5 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4857
Age: 42
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2358 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.


Quite curious to see the 12z Euro I bet it comes west.
0 likes   

Kat5
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 139
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:28 pm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2359 Postby Kat5 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.


Quite curious to see the 12z Euro I bet it comes west.


East
0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1194
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2360 Postby MississippiWx » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:54 pm

gatorcane wrote:Let’s face it. When the CMC is insisting only a weak to at most moderate TS as it moves into South Florida, we shouldn’t be surprised at what we are seeing, that model is very bullish normally and just hasn’t been for this storm.


The CMC hasn’t been “bullish” all season.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests