ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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MJGarrison
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2361 Postby MJGarrison » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:54 pm

Euro 12Z running. Slightly weaker and slightly faster after 12 hours (compared to 06Z)


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2362 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:54 pm

Slight SE shift at hour 24 when compared to 00Z.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2363 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:55 pm

Strangely the GFS is now a bit more west of the Euro at 24 hours. But we are splitting hairs here.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2364 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:Strangely the GFS is now a bit more west of the Euro at 24 hours. But we are splitting hairs here.

Considering where it is now both of them will probably end up being too far east.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2365 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:57 pm

Slightly stronger and a little more to the right compared to last night's 0z run.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2366 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:59 pm

At 18z tomorrow about 5 miles more west than on last night's run.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2367 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:01 pm

And then it takes a jog to the north, lol.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2368 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:03 pm

Then a jog to the NW making landfall in Cape Canaveral, lol.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2369 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:05 pm

12z Euro initialized to far SE. Pretty clear the position Isaias is in now after this persistent WNW movement and its likely to landfall in FL. The question is all the deep convection is far removed and can new convection build between Andros and FL to maintain Hurricane status? My guess is NHC may start backing down intensity at 5pm. JMHO
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2370 Postby MJGarrison » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:05 pm

Yea, it takes an odd jog to the north then into the cape.Image


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2371 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:06 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2372 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:10 pm

MJGarrison wrote:Yea, it takes an odd jog to the north then into the cape.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200801/e143dc916f614536c59e2b2fdac65da1.gif


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Well first benchmark for Euro is it takes the storm to the right of Bimini - we'll be able to quality check that pretty soon
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2373 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:37 pm

jhpigott wrote:12z HWRF simulated IR looks to bring some nasty weather to the SEFL Coast on up towards the Space Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=9


Look what the HWRF does on the simulated IR between hours 6 and 12. Does anyone believe that?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2374 Postby Ken711 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:51 pm

Any change on intensity with the latest Euro run so far?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2375 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:56 pm

NDG wrote:Then a jog to the NW making landfall in Cape Canaveral, lol.



It's doing the Matthew shuffle :D
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2376 Postby ocala » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:00 pm

toad strangler wrote:
NDG wrote:Then a jog to the NW making landfall in Cape Canaveral, lol.



It's doing the Matthew shuffle :D

:D
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2377 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:01 pm

18z TCVN now shows landfall near PBC/Martin
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2378 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:16 pm

18z TVCN

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2379 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:18 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:18z TCVN now shows landfall near PBC/Martin


HRRR is also moving closest to the coast so far on its 18z run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80118&fh=0
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2380 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:22 pm

And boom. Mostly offshore, but HRRR pulses this twice in the next 15 hours. It's got a burst west toward the coast then looking bad then blowing up. Most heaviest convection is offshore, but right along the Coast should easily get some TS conditions out of this.

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