ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:42 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 73.3 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the
north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight and move near
or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near or east of the Florida
peninsula on Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is
expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos this
morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
southeastern Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Satellite images indicate that Isaias is maintaining a small
central dense overcast, with a new burst of convection recently
forming near the center. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the
pressure had fallen to 990 mb, although there was little from the
aircraft that supported more than the previous advisory's intensity
of 70 kt.

The hurricane has been moving between west-northwest and northwest
during the last several hours, estimated at 305/15 now. Isaias
should gradually turn to the north-northwest and north over the
weekend as it moves around the western periphery of a weakening
western Atlantic subtropical ridge. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement over the first couple of days of the forecast, so little
change is made at that time, other than a small westward adjustment
near the Bahamas. After that time, there is a considerable spread,
growing to over 700 miles, in the reliable models on how quickly
Isaias moves northeastward near the east coast of the United States.
The large spread appears to be related to both how strong the
cyclone is by early next week and how much mid-level ridging
remains near the Carolinas. There are no obvious reasons to choose
either the fast GFS or slow ECMWF right now, so the official
forecast will remain close to the previous one and the model
consensus. It should be noted that given this large spread, the
extended forecast could be subject to large speed/timing changes if
either of those solutions become more likely.

Strengthening is expected during the next day or so while the
hurricane remains over the very warm waters near the Bahamas with
reasonably low vertical shear. The forecast for the first 24 hours
has been raised from earlier, at the top of the guidance spread.
Increasingly southwesterly flow aloft should cause an increase in
shear over the weekend, which is forecast by most of the guidance
to lead to a gradual decrease in intensity. The details are not
very clear at all, especially considering the track uncertainty,
but there is a notable chance of a hurricane moving close to the
U.S. East coast, so the forecast continues to show that scenario.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect South and east-Central Florida
beginning late Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next
week, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor
river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently
needed for this area, they may be required later today if the
forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central
Florida beginning late tonight, potentially resulting in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly
drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast
through early next week. The details of the track and intensity
forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests
along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of
Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 20.9N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:58 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 73.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula later today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the
Dominican Republic will likely be discontinued later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 21.3 North, longitude 73.9 West. Isaias is moving toward
the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
couple of days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the
Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the
Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern
Bahamas and be near or east of the Florida peninsula on Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected
to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A private weather observing site at Long Bay Beach
in Providenciales recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86
km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern
Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:07 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 74.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
Bahamas radar near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 74.5 West. Isaias
is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected for the day or so followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias
will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move
near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is possible today and tonight, and Isaias is expected
to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the
southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central
northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of
Florida on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

After a brief convective hiatus earlier this morning, a small burst
of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80C to -85C have
developed over the previously exposed low-level center. Dry
downslope air coming off of Hispaniola wrapped into the center,
eroding the inner-core convection somewhat. However, a surge of
moist southwesterly inflow moving through the Windward Passage now
appears to be fueling the recent increase in convection. The
upper-level outflow has improved somewhat in the western
semicircle but still remains restricted due to some modest
southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 65 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of near 70 kt
and an increase in the central pressure of 992 mb, which is based on
a dropsonde report of 995 mb with 26-kt surface winds.

Isaias is continuing on a steady northwestward motion of 305/14 kt.
This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so as
the hurricane rounds the southwestern periphery of the
Bermuda-Azores High. A gradual turn to the north-northwest and
north is expected by 48-60 hours due to a break in the ridge
developing in response to a central U.S. shortwave trough digging
into the southeastern United States. The timing and strength of this
trough will determine how far west Isaias moves before the hurricane
turns northward. The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward,
closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift
seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields. By 72 hours, the hurricane is
forecast to begin accelerating northeastward, possibly passing over
eastern North Carolina by day 4 and across eastern New England on
day 5. As a result of the westward shift in the latest model
guidance, the new NHC forecast track has also been shifted farther
west closer to the southeastern U.S. coast, and lies a little to the
west of the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA. The westward shift
in the track forecast has required the issuance of a Hurricane Watch
for portions of the Florida east coast.

Although some slight weakening has occurred, radar data from the
aircraft and the Bahamas radar indicate about a 60-percent
eyewall has formed in the northeastern semicircle, which is an
indication that the cyclone is trying to reorganize. As a result,
strengthening is still expected during the next day or so,
especially tonight and Saturday morning during the convective
maximum period when the hurricane will be moving over the Gulf
Stream where SSTs are 30C or warmer and while the vertical remains
reasonably low. Increasing southwesterly shear could cause a gradual
decrease in intensity over the weekend. The new official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a little above
the available model guidance out of respect for continuity.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect south and east-central Florida late
Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next week,
potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor
river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning
Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in
effect. Storm surge watches or warnings could be needed for part of
this area this afternoon.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge beginning late this weekend along the northeastern Florida
coast and spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east
coast through early next week. Interests along the entire U.S. east
coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 21.7N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 24.8N 78.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 26.3N 79.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 27.7N 79.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 29.2N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 31.6N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 36.4N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:08 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 75.2 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near
or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be
near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the
Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected later today and tonight, and Isaias is
forecast to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the
southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central
northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:03 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from
Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Volusia/Brevard County Line
to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and from south of Boca Raton to
Hallendale Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from
Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to Ponte Vedre Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later tonight and Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by satellite imagery and Bahamas radar data near latitude 22.6
North, longitude 75.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest
near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near
or over the Southeastern Bahamas this afternoon and evening. Isaias
is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or
over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected later tonight and early Saturday,
and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A private weather observing station at Pitts Town Point,
Bahamas, recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread northwestward
into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated
minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and
into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Deep convection, with occasional overshooting cloud tops of -85C to
-90C just north of the center, has continued to develop during the
normal diurnal convective minimum period, which is quite impressive.
The most recent Air Force Reserve recon flight-level wind data,
along with ASCAT surface wind data, indicate that the inner-core and
outer wind field have both contracted in size. Furthermore, radar
data from the Bahamas and an 1810Z AMSR-2 microwave pass also
indicate that a small 10-nmi-wide mid-level eye is forming. The last
recon central pressure was 991 mb and the 700 mb height had
decreased by 30 meters since the earlier maximum height around
1230Z. These data indicate that Isaias is getting better organized.
The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on an earlier 700-mb
flight-level wind speed of 72 kt, which reduces to a 65-kt surface
wind speed using a 90-percent adjustment factor.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The 12Z
global models have once again made a westward shift due to the ridge
to the north of Isaias not weakening as quickly as expected. This is
partly due to the ridge being stronger than expected and a shortwave
trough over the central United States moving a little slower into
the southeastern U.S. than previously indicated. The UKMET and ECMWF
explicitly show Isaias making landfall in 36-48 hours along the
southeast Florida coast, but appear to weaken the system below
hurricane strength. The GFS similarly brings the cyclone close to
the southeast and east-central Florida coasts, but also as a
somewhat weaker system. In the 48 to 60-hour period, the cyclone is
forecast to move slowly north-northwestward and northward through a
break in the subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic
across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. By that time,
however, Isaias is expected to weaken below hurricane strength due
to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and
interaction the Florida peninsula. Around 72 hours, the cyclone
should accelerate northeastward and possibly strengthen some before
passing over eastern North Carolina on day 4, and across eastern New
England on day 5. The NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of
the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA and is east of the UKMET
and ECMWF with the system forecast to be stronger than those
models indicate. Due to the westward shift in the NHC forecast
track, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been issued
for portions of the Florida east coast.

The center of Isaias is now located in the center of an expanding
CDO feature. The improved inner-core wind field and aforementioned
convective structure, along with very warm SSTs near 30C, should
support some strengthening overnight and early Saturday morning.
However, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
cause a gradual decrease in intensity by Sunday and continue into
early next week. The new official intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous advisory and is near the higher end of the
intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas across south to east-central Florida, and across the Carolinas
to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is possible
across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.

5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early
next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias
and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 22.6N 75.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 23.9N 77.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 25.4N 78.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 28.3N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 30.0N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 32.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 45.4N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:51 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas, and discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later tonight and Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.9
North, longitude 75.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest
near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the
Central Bahamas tonight, near or over the Northwestern Bahamas
Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday
afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected later tonight and early
Saturday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Staniel Cay in the Exumas recently reported
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread northwestward
into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated
minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and
into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch is changed to a Hurricane Warning from the
Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 76.4 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas tonight, near
or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early
Saturday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the
Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas on
Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night
and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength on Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and
are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by
Saturday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated
minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and
into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Isaias has a somewhat asymmetrical appearance on satellite images,
with lots of deep convection over the eastern semicircle and not as
much over the western part of the circulation. Reports from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure
has dropped a few mb, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface
wind observations from the aircraft indicate an intensity of near
70 kt. The hurricane is experiencing some westerly shear, and this
is likely to limit intensification. However, some strengthening is
still possible on Saturday. When Isais moves farther north in a
couple of days, the shear should cause a gradual weakening trend to
begin. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the
previous one, and a little above the model consensus.

The hurricane continues moving northwestward at a bit slower pace,
or 310/13 kt. The general track forecast philosophy has not
changed. Isais should continue to move northwestward on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge through Saturday and begin to
turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday.
Thereafter, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an
increase in forward speed is likely during days 3 to 5. The
official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very
close to the latest dynamical model consensus.

The hurricane warning has been extended northward along the Florida
east coast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should
be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the
Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is
possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next
week.

5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early
next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias
and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.3N 76.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 24.5N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 25.9N 79.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 27.1N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 30.2N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 33.1N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 41.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 47.5N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:59 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 77.1 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas this morning,
near or over the Northwestern Bahamas later today and near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and
and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the
Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later
today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the
watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this
morning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry air
entrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size,
although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near the
center and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dry
slot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the central
convection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Hunter
mission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75
kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the
storm during the next several hours.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track
forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to
move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today
and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the
ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the
mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track
guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida
coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous
guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little
east of, and slower than, the previous track.

The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly
vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the
center. This combination should prevent any more intensification,
and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes
near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur
during this time. Current indications from the global models are
that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it
recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous
forecast in calling for weakening during this time.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the
Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.

5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early
next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias
and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 23.9N 77.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:04 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...RAGGED EYE OF ISAIAS NEAR EASTERN ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM S OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas
radar near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern
Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of
Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and
Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was
987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the
Northwestern Bahamas later today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the
watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:03 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL ON NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Volusia/Flagler County Line to
Ponte Vedra Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Ponte Vedra
Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
Bahamas radar near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.9 West. Isaias
is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by
late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move
over northern Andros Island during the next few hours and move
near or over Grand Bahama Island in the Northwestern Bahamas later
today. Isaias is forecast to move near the east coast of the
Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
Sunday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this
time. Slow weakening is expected to begin by late Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). Reports from a U.S. Navy site on Andros Island indicate
that sustained winds of 45 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111
km/h) occurred about 3 hours ago. More recently, a sustained wind of
35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h) were measured at
Nassau, Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the
Northwestern Bahamas through today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch
area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch
area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around 1410
UTC indicated that the center of the eye of Isaias was located
along the southern coast of northern Andros Island about 15 nmi
south-southwest of Andros Town. The eye appearance in Bahamas and
aircraft radar data, along with the visual reports from the flight
crew, has gone from nearly closed a few hours ago to open in the
southwestern quadrant more recently. However, the diameter of the
eye has been has been holding steady between 20-22 nmi, an
indication that Isaias has been able to fight off some modest
southwesterly wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 70 kt based on maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 77 kt, which
equals about 70-kt surface wind speed, and the central pressure
fluctuating between 987-990 mb.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/10 kt. The latest NHC model
guidance is now tightly packed about the previous 18-h worth of
official track forecasts, and as a result, no significant changes
were made to the previous advisory track. The global and regional
models have come into much better agreement compared to 24 hours ago
in taking Isaias northwestward slowly for the next 36 h or so, and
moving the center near or keeping it just offshore the east-central
Florida coast. By 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to turn
northward around the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge
that will slowly be eroded by an approaching mid-level shortwave
trough currently situated over the central United States. By 60 h
and beyond, the aforementioned trough is expected to gradually
accelerate Isaias northeastward near or along the coast from
South Carolina to New England. The new NHC track forecast is
basically an extension of the previous one, and lies very close to
an average of the simple consensus model TVCA, and the corrected-
consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE.

In the near term, Isaias could weaken a little bit this afternoon
while passing over northern Andros Island. However, the still
impressive vertical structure of the cyclone should allow for some
re-strengthening after the center moves back over the warm Gulf
Stream by this evening. The current SHIPS analyzed westerly
vertical wind shear of 25 kt could be too high due to the model
incorporating some of the storm's outflow. The models forecast the
shear to weaken somewhat over the next 36 h while Isaias is moving
over the Gulf Stream, and the 06Z UKMET shows Isaias moving
underneath a 200-mb anticyclone, which would normally favor some
strengthening. Given all of these factors, the official forecast
maintains a steady intensity through Monday night. Slow weakening
is forecast when Isais encounters more significant southwesterly
vertical wind shear ahead of a strong upper-level trough that will
be approaching the U.S. east coast on days 3-5.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in
portions of the northwest Bahamas today and tonight.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast by late tonight and Sunday. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash urban flooding, especially
in low-lying and poorly drained areas, in eastern Florida, and from
the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Minor river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia
early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions
of the northeast Florida and southern Georgia coasts. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be issued later today and Sunday
along the U.S. east coast as the risk of wind, heavy rainfall, and
storm surge impacts continues to increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 24.7N 77.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 25.7N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 27.1N 79.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 32.6N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 36.0N 76.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:47 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS EMERGING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the Miami NOAA
Doppler weather radar near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 78.4 West.
Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward
motion by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias
will move over the Straits of Florida tonight, and approach the
southeast coast of Florida early Sunday morning. Isaias is then
forecast to move near or along the the east coast of the Florida
peninsula Sunday and Sunday night.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Although Isaias has weakened after passing
over Andros Island, some re-strengthening is expected tonight and
Sunday morning when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters
of the Straits of Florida and the Gulf Stream. Isaias is forecast to
remain a hurricane through Monday, followed by slow weakening
beginning Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently
observed at Nassau, Bahamas. Doppler radar indicates that
tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore Broward and
Miami-Dade Counties.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the
Northwestern Bahamas through today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch
area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch
area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Across the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey,
southeast New York, and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas in
eastern Florida and across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 78.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch from Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton
Florida has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 25.1 North, longitude 78.7 West. Isaias is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday
and a turn toward the north and north- northeast on Monday and
Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida
tonight and move near or along the east coast of Florida Sunday and
Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move
quickly from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast, and Isaias
is expected to regain hurricane strength tonight. Slow weakening is
expected to begin Sunday night and continue through Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. During hew past couple of hours, a Weatherflow
observing site at the Dania Pier in Broward County, Florida,
reported a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) in an outer rainband. More
recently, a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) was reported by a
Weatherflow site in Juno Beach, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida on Sunday and will spread
northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch
area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river
flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

The last data received from a previous Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, along with recent satellite and radar
imagery, indicate that Isaias has weakened to a tropical storm due
to a combination of shear, dry air and interaction with Andros
Island earlier today. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on
SFMR surface wind speeds of near 60 kt in the northeastern quadrant
on the last flight. A new reconnaissance mission into the cyclone is
currently ongoing and will provide new data concerning the Isaias'
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 315/09 kt. After making a slight
west-northwestward jog a few hours ago after convection
significantly weakened, Isaias appears to have returned to its base
northwestward course. The new NHC model guidance is tightly packed
but has shifted slightly westward, with some of the more reliable
models now showing landfall along the east-central Florida coast in
about 24 hours. Earlier NOAA G-IV jet dropsonde data and 12Z
upper-air data reveal that the surface to 700 mb ridge extending
east-west across central and northern Florida remains intact whereas
the 500-300 mb ridge has completely eroded. The result is that lower
level ridge will cause Isaias to slow its forward motion to
northwestward at 6-8 kt during the next 36 hours. By 48 hours, the
erosion of the ridge due to an approaching shortwave trough will
allow the cyclone to move northward, followed by a gradual increase
in forward speed toward the northeast on days 3-5. The new NHC track
forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central
coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the
previous forecast after 36 hours.

A combination of Isaias moving over the warm Gulfstream waters
during the convective maximum period and increasing frictional
convergence due to land interaction with Florida should lead to an
increase in deep convection near and over the center, as shown by
simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model. As a result,
Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by
the HWRF and HMON model fields. By 36 hours and beyond, the global
models are in good agreement that an approaching mid- to upper-level
trough will increase southwesterly vertical wind shear, which
should result in gradual weakening until Isais becomes an
extratropical cyclone in about 96 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the HMON in 12 hours and closely follows the
IVCN and HCCA consensus models after 36 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in
portions of the northwest Bahamas tonight.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to
begin tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the East
Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and Virginia early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of
the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South
Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
tonight and Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or
over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 25.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 26.1N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 33.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 37.4N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 45.4N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 50.7N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:18 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT
WHILE IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Eleuthera, New Providence, Andros Island, and the
Abacos Islands

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.3
North, longitude 78.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so,
followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. A turn
toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and
Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida
tonight and move near or along the east coast of Florida Sunday and
Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move
from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic
states.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast, and Isaias is expected to
regain hurricane strength later tonight and early Sunday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Sunday night and continue through
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, recently
reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial observing
station in Ft. Lauderdale Beach recently reported a wind gust of 39
mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over
portions of the Northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida on Sunday and will spread
northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch
area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river
flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:05 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by
late Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed.
On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the
southeast coast of Florida tonight and early Sunday and move near or
along the east coast of Florida Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday
and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the
coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is possible, and Isaias could regain
hurricane strength early Sunday. Slow weakening is expected to
begin Sunday night and continue through Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow site in Morningside Park in Miami
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial
observing station on Great Harbour Cay recently reported a wind gust
of 40 mph (64 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over
portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through Sunday morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida Sunday morning and will spread
northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida
Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch
area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river
flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Deep convection has increased this evening in a cluster to the east
and northeast of the aircraft-observed center position. Radar data
suggests a mid-level center or vorticity maximum in that area,
which is between Grand Bahama and Andros Island. Observations from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isaias has not
restrengthened thus far, but there is still a small window of
opportunity for it to regain hurricane intensity Sunday while
passing over the Gulf Stream waters. Synoptic surveillance data
from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV aircraft indicate that the upper-level
west-southwesterly flow over Isais will begin to increase by late
Sunday. The resulting increase in shear and interaction with land
should cause weakening beyond 24 hours, and the official intensity
forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus.

Assuming that the aforementioned mid-level feature is not the
dominant center of circulation, the aircraft fixes give a motion
estimate of about 310/8 kt. Isais has been moving northwestward
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area.
An approaching trough near the Ohio Valley is expected to cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northward within 48 hours. After that,
Isaias should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead
of the trough, and move near or over the east coast of the United
States. The official track forecast remains close to both the
simple and corrected dynamic model consensus tracks, TVCN and HCCA
respectively.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in
portions of the northwest Bahamas through Sunday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to
begin late tonight. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the east
coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and mid Atlantic early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of
the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South
Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
on Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the
southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 25.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 26.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST
36H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 32.0N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 35.3N 78.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 39.7N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0000Z 47.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 07/0000Z 51.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:43 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 79.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
southeast United States coast to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South
Carolina northward to Cape Fear North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Surf City,
North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Hallandale Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 79.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a
north-northwestward motion by tonight. A turn toward the north
and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today
through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias
will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along
the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg


Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the
center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement
in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance
aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still
being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind
shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb
flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51
kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate
that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft
and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion
of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated.

Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it
appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is
closing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show
the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves
near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast
shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the
period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward
along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus.

Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving
northwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward to
north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of
Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. After
that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward
into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has
necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida.
The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas through today.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the east coast of Florida within the warning area through early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the
coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on
Monday.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, and
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly
drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this week.

5. Tropical storm watches are in effect for portions of the coast
of South and North Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to move
northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts over
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 26.3N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 33.7N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 37.8N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 42.9N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0600Z 50.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:28 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 79.5
West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a
north-northwestward motion tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today
through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias
will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55
mph (89 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and a
Weatherflow observing site at Junno Beach Pier, Florida, measured a
wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along
the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along
coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on
Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:25 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 79.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast
from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Jupiter Inlet Florida and for
Lake Okeechobee has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida east coast has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Interests elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North,
longitude 79.6 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to
continue through Monday morning. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida today through late
tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from
offshore the coast of Georgia into the mid-Atlantic states.

Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength
will be possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN
station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind
gust of 64 mph (103 km/h). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was
reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. Along the east coast of
Florida, tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been observed from
Juno Beach northward to Port St. Lucie.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area
on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North
Carolina on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek
along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the
United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding
is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along
coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on
Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN



Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Another recent burst of deep convection has recently developed
northeast of the center, which has resulted in Isaias making a
slight northward jog. An impressive mid-level circulation has
developed within the strongest thunderstorm cluster, along with rare
reflectivity values of 55-60 dBZ for a tropical cyclone. The
Melbourne, Florida, Doppler weather radar has been indicating
patches of velocity values of 65-66 kt at around 10,000 ft just
north of the center, which equates to 58-59 kt surface winds. For
now, the intensity will remain at 55 kt since previous convective
bursts have not persisted for more than a couple of hours at best.
Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Isaias later today.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is now moving toward
the north-northwest or 340/07 kt. A slow north-northwestward motion
should continue for the next 24 hours or so as Isaias moves into a
weakness that has developed in the Bermuda-Azores ridge over north
Florida and off the Georgia coast seen in 02/1200Z upper-air data. A
turn toward the north is forecast to occur by all of the global
models by Monday morning, followed by a faster forward motion toward
the northeast by Monday afternoon and evening when the cyclone will
be influenced by southwesterly steering flow ahead of a strong
eastward-moving mid- to upper-level trough. Continued northeastward
acceleration across the mid-Atlantic and New England states is
expected on days 3 and 4. The global models continue to show little
cross-track difference, but still have significant along-track
differences with the GFS being the fastest and the ECMWF being
the slowest . Since the preponderance of the model guidance is
slower than the GFS solution, the new official forecast track
closely follows the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, and lies near
the previous advisory track after 12 h.

Isaias will remain over warm Gulfstream waters where water
temperatures are near 30 deg C. Despite very unfavorable vertical
shear conditions of 25-30 kt the past couple of days, the cyclone
has managed to hold together, which is an indication that the system
has a deep, well-formed vertical circulation. While some slight
intensification is possible if the shear decreases, the official
forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady until landfall
occurs in the Carolinas in 36 hours or so. Some baroclinic
interaction with the right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically
curved jet streak is expected to hold the intensity a little above
what would normally be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone
in 48-72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus model.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the east
coast of Florida within the warning area through early Monday and
will reach the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North
Carolina within the warning area Monday and early Tuesday.

2. Dangerous storm surge is possible from Edisto Beach South
Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. A Storm Surge Warning may be needed for a
portion of this area later today, and residents there should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek
along and near the path of Isaias along the U.S. East Coast.
Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the North
Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible on
Tuesday. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later
today as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts Tuesday and Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.9N 79.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:26 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 79.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Interests elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radar near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning.
A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday
and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida
today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of
Isaias will move from offshore the coast of Georgia into the
mid-Atlantic states.

Data from the aircraft and the Melbourne, Florida, Doppler radar
data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be
possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN
station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind
gust of 48 mph (78 km/h), and a weather station at Sebastian Inlet,
Florida measured a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area on Monday
and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North
Carolina on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek
along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the
United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding
is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along
coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on
Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Edisto Beach South Carolina
to Cape Fear North Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Cape Fear to Duck North
Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Ocracoke
Inlet North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Watch Hill
Rhode Island, including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac
River, Delaware Bay, Long Island and Long Island Sound.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sebastian
Inlet Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 79.8
West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an
increase in forward speed is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east
of the Florida east coast through tonight. The center of Isaias
will move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South
Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern North Carolina
Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday.

Data from the aircraft and the Melbourne, Florida, Doppler radar
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be
possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected
to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of
northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina Monday night.
Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region late Monday
and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida,
recently measured a wind gust of 49 mph (80 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are be possible in the watch area in
South and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday
night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
4 inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwestern Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across
eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

The earlier intense recent burst has waned since this morning, but
the large convective cell has persisted. At the peak of the activity
around 1500Z, several small patches of Doppler velocities of 90-96
kt were co-located with the pronounced mid-level circulation that
was evident in the Melbourne radar reflectivity data. However,
these intense wind speed values were short-lived for only about 20
minutes and, thus, were not considered to representative of Isaias'
tangential wind field. Since that time, the cyclone has become more
steady state with Doppler radar and Air Force Reserve aircraft data
indicating surface winds in the 56-63 kt range. Therefore, the
initial intensity of 60 kt is an average of these values.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is still moving
toward the north-northwest or 345/08 kt. The latest model guidance
remains in excellent agreement on Isaias moving north-northwestward
through a break in the subtropical ridge tonight and turning
northward by Monday morning, all the while remaining offshore of the
coast from east-central Florida to Georgia. By Monday night, Isaias
is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate toward the
Carolinas, reaching the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and New
England by early Wednesday. The new NHC forecast track during the
first 24 hours lies a little east of the previous one, but is
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track
thereafter, and lies close to the various consensus models, which
are lightly packed around the previous NHC foreast.

Isaias will continue to move slowly over the warm Gulfstream waters
for the next 36 h or so. Despite unfavorable vertical shear
conditions of around 25 kt, Isaias is expected to maintain its
current intensity until landfall, and could restrengthen to
hurricane status in 24-36 h when the vertical shear vector is
forecast to switch from westerly to southwesterly which would align
the shear along the direction of storm motion. Some baroclinic
interaction is expected on days 2-3 when Isaias will move into the
right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically curved jet streak, which
is expected to hold the intensity a little above what would normally
be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model and the
IVCN intensity consensus model, which agree well with the GFS and
ECMWF model intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to
Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent
waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the
North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through
Monday night. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are
likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch
area.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, are expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the U.S. East
Coast. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.

4. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the U.S. mid-Atlantic
coast, including the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island
Sound, as tropical storm force winds are possible in these areas on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be issued tonight and Monday as Isaias is expected to move
northward near or over the mid-Atlantic and New England states
Tuesday and Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 27.8N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 29.0N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 30.9N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 33.7N 78.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 38.1N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 42.5N 72.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 46.3N 68.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 54.2N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 79.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.2
North, longitude 79.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east
coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore
of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move
inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday
night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the
next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm
when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern
North Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after
Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41009, located just off the coast of
Cape Canaveral, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A Florida Institute of
Technology observing station at Sebastien Inlet measured a sustained
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph (78 km/h) during the
past couple of hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday
night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
4 inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwestern Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across
eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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