ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

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wx98
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#121 Postby wx98 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:50 pm

Oh well...
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#122 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:50 pm

The NHC brings up that it may have briefly been a TS in between advisories. The perks of 6 hour advisories I guess.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#123 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:51 pm

We might get an unnamed tropical storm in post analysis - even though I think NHC is hesitant to do such.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#124 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:16 pm

Hey I'm just thrilled we got a designated TC out of it, probably technically was a depression and intermittent TS for 2-3 days in reality but better than nothing
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#125 Postby gfsperpendicular » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:45 pm

I don't really understand the discussion... wouldn't you expect the strongest convection to have the strongest winds, especially in a slow-moving system like this? I guess I don't understand the process behind looking at the winds in the naked swirl part for the intensity as a whole.
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I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!

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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#126 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:55 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:I don't really understand the discussion... wouldn't you expect the strongest convection to have the strongest winds, especially in a slow-moving system like this? I guess I don't understand the process behind looking at the winds in the naked swirl part for the intensity as a whole.


It sounds like they just didn't want to name it maybe especially since it's already on the way out? I do think it was a TS earlier today, but it will be up to the NHC to reanalyze it. I don't remember the last time a designated TD was upgraded to a TS in post-analysis.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#127 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:24 am

Convection basically collapsed, refiring a little but ain't long for this world; fun to watch while it lasted for sure
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#128 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:40 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:I don't really understand the discussion... wouldn't you expect the strongest convection to have the strongest winds, especially in a slow-moving system like this? I guess I don't understand the process behind looking at the winds in the naked swirl part for the intensity as a whole.


It sounds like they just didn't want to name it maybe especially since it's already on the way out? I do think it was a TS earlier today, but it will be up to the NHC to reanalyze it. I don't remember the last time a designated TD was upgraded to a TS in post-analysis.


1988, ironically in the exact same place.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#129 Postby djones65 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:17 am

The unnamed 50 knot storm that formed as Gilbert was developing and rumors were NHC Staff didnt want to "burn" Gilbert's name on a short-lived storm since iconic Gil Clark was retiring! LOL
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#130 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:47 am

djones65 wrote:The unnamed 50 knot storm that formed as Gilbert was developing and rumors were NHC Staff didnt want to "burn" Gilbert's name on a short-lived storm since iconic Gil Clark was retiring! LOL


Ha! Never knew that!
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#131 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:33 am

djones65 wrote:The unnamed 50 knot storm that formed as Gilbert was developing and rumors were NHC Staff didnt want to "burn" Gilbert's name on a short-lived storm since iconic Gil Clark was retiring! LOL


In before the NHC has an accurate long-range model that they secretly use, and not naming TD10 was the only way to prevent the name Nana from going to a cat 5 monster :lol:
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ATL: TEN - Advisories

#132 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:29 am

What?! No big discussion about this system? I can't believe it...

I think it was a TS 2-3 days ago before the NHC recognized it. Perhaps it will get a post-season upgrade?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Advisories

#133 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:What?! No big discussion about this system? I can't believe it...


Same system near east coast or in GoM and you would see an endless diskussion here...

I think this one has to be upgraded in post season.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#134 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:33 pm

This depression was quite a surprise because of its unusual formation location. Normally, SSTs in this area are too cool to support tropical cyclogenesis this early in the season.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#135 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:32 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:This depression was quite a surprise because of its unusual formation location. Normally, SSTs in this area are too cool to support tropical cyclogenesis this early in the season.

Yes, definitely an over achiever that came out of nowhere! Wasn’t really expecting a TS even when the first advisory yesterday forecasted one.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

#136 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:20 pm

RIP TD 10... hopefully you'll have a chance to get upgraded during the post-season.

Everything about this system was just so weird. It spent a few days looking better than pre-Isaias but was largely ignored. When it was finally designated as an Invest, it still took a day before the system was upgraded to a TD (despite ASCAT passes indicating it had a clear circulation). Then, in the first advisory, the NHC mentioned that winds were at 30kt because ASCAT likely undersampled the system due to its small size. Yet when an ASCAT pass a few hours later showed a few 30kt wind barbs and a single 35kt wind barb, the system was not upgraded on the basis that there may have been rain contamination.

The models kept on killing the system early on, so maybe that's why the NHC was hesitant to upgrade the system? It would make sense that they didn't want to use a name on a single advisory storm... but the problem was the storm defied the models and kept on staying alive, which may have forced them to eventually pull the trigger at the end. By that point, there was no way the storm would make it past TD status with the time it had, given the NHC's preference for consistency and continuity between advisories.

It's also possible that the NHC had data we didn't have, which would certainly be a reasonable explanation (they're the experts, after all). Or they wanted to save up the names so we wouldn't have to deal with the headache of getting an October monster named after a Greek letter (which as of now can't be retired) :lol:
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