ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

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kevin
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#41 Postby kevin » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:11 pm

Of course it's not my call and the people at NHC have a lot more data to work with, but based on everything I've seen, including the sat images, I think it already looks classifiable. Guess we'll just have to wait to see what NHC will decide.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#42 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:14 pm

Probably not as important at the moment, I’ve heard they tend to classify systems faster the closer to land (which seems reasonable)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#43 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:23 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Probably not as important at the moment, I’ve heard they tend to classify systems faster the closer to land (which seems reasonable)


I have seen other systems that were no where near land get classified and looked much worse than this. I think that is not the primary reason for not classifying the system. I think there are other reasons why this is not getting classified but I could not guess what they are.
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ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#44 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:33 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have increased and become better organized during the day. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it drifts generally north-northwestward. After that time, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


$$ Forecaster Roberts


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#45 Postby kevin » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:36 pm

That's a big jump in %, I think there's a pretty good big chance now that this one will be classified at some point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#46 Postby abajan » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:41 pm

shiny-pebble wrote:Has there ever been a July where there was 3 deep tropic TC developments??

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For some weeks now, Mark Sudduth has occasionally been mentioning the possibility of this happening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#47 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:42 pm

If named, this would beat Jose in 2005 for the earliest "J" storm by over 3 weeks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#48 Postby MGC » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:49 pm

93L is spinning....could be upgraded soon with sufficient convection. CV islands need to be on guard....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#49 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:10 pm

Doesn't look like many forecast models have latched onto this yet.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#50 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:16 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Doesn't look like many forecast models have latched onto this yet.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif

The models haven’t done well this year so all you can do is go by the eye test as the models aren’t picking up on these systems
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#51 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:29 pm

At least ASCAT isn't missing it today. Slightly open to NE may be why they didn't pull the trigger? I dunno. I think it is starting to lose organization and was probably closed earlier

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#52 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:16 pm

DMIN did a number on 93L. Convection significantly decreased near the center, though it has begun to redevelop SE of the center. In order to still get classified as a tropical depression, it will need to rebuild convection overnight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#53 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:47 pm

A small area of low pressure is located about 250 miles southeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity from
earlier in the day that was associated with a circulation in the
middle levels of the atmosphere has mostly dissipated, however
there is still some disorganized shower activity located near the
surface circulation center. This low has a small window of
opportunity to become a tropical depression through Friday while it
moves northward at about 10 mph, before environmental conditions
become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#54 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:16 pm

I'm still of the thinking that this was a TD for a decent chunk of time between last night and late this morning, but convection and organization have decreased since. Let's see if the upcoming Dmax can help it regain its footing and make a final push for classification.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#55 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:20 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#56 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:28 pm



Was this issued after the chances were lowered?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#57 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:36 pm

This is a tropical cyclone!
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#58 Postby zhukm29 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:59 pm

I don't know why the NHC is taking so long, but this has checked all the boxes for a tropical cyclone for quite a while now. I guess Isaias is taking up the spotlight...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#59 Postby bob rulz » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:00 pm

The NHC has simultaneously tracked 4+ storms before, so I don't really see why that would be an issue. I think they're just hesitant to designate storms right off the coast of Africa because of how quickly those big tropical waves can fall apart, especially with limited to no model support.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#60 Postby zhukm29 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:22 pm

bob rulz wrote:The NHC has simultaneously tracked 4+ storms before, so I don't really see why that would be an issue. I think they're just hesitant to designate storms right off the coast of Africa because of how quickly those big tropical waves can fall apart, especially with limited to no model support.


Personally, I think if it meets the requirements, it should be designated for consistency. What ends up happening is that a storm isn't designated even though it is like a TC, and then it falls apart when NHC waits too long. 93L has looked better than several other tropical depressions over the past day, and models have done a not-so-great job this year so far.

That being said, I'll defer to the experts on this - maybe they're seeing something we don't. 2020 might end up getting snubbed out of its record 6th July TC... I hope it doesn't try to beat 2005 in another way out of spite. :lol:
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