EPAC: INVEST 93E

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2020081218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1040W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, ep712020 to ep932020,

[cycloneye]

2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next few days before the system
reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932020 08/13/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 42 53 63 70 71 67 63 55 50 44 41 40 38
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 42 53 63 70 71 67 63 55 50 44 41 40 38
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 53 54 51 45 39 33 29 26 23 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 11 7 5 6 7 6 12 11 12 10 9 6 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 -2 0 4 3 3 4 1 -1 -1 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 14 336 282 292 302 272 247 232 205 186 179 175 148 155 171 255 276
SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.4 26.7 26.1 24.9 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.3 23.3 23.8 23.6
POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 165 161 157 148 131 124 112 109 103 103 95 95 99 97
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 76 77 74 71 70 65 64 58 55 50 49 45 46 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 16 19 21 20 19 19 16 15 14 12 11 9
850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 11 36 54 45 55 45 50 74 87 81 67 56 58 69 87
200 MB DIV 83 84 46 41 74 64 79 55 87 51 33 22 -5 -15 -11 -9 -15
700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 -3 -5 1 -2 2 0 2 1 0 2
LAND (KM) 334 368 388 430 496 554 531 596 642 771 907 1031 1167 1344 1509 1674 1812
LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.6 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.1 109.1 111.0 112.8 114.7 116.6 118.6 120.6 122.6 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 21 17 15 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 28. 27. 25. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 18. 16. 15. 12. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 28. 38. 45. 46. 42. 38. 30. 25. 19. 16. 15. 13.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 104.9

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 9.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 4.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 26.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 19.9% 9.6% 5.3% 2.5% 35.8% 43.7% 9.8%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.8% 17.1% 12.2% 1.8% 0.9% 20.1% 23.4% 3.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next few days before the system
reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932020 08/13/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 45 53 58 58 54 49 45 41 38 36 33 32
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 45 53 58 58 54 49 45 41 38 36 33 32
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 33 30 26 23 22 20 19 18 16
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 9 6 7 10 10 12 11 10 5 3 3 6 7 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 1 0 -2 0 2 1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 0 1 4
SHEAR DIR 299 290 300 301 280 215 239 185 205 171 185 169 155 248 251 243 203
SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.2 29.1 28.2 26.2 25.3 24.8 24.0 24.5 24.7 24.1 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.7
POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 160 157 156 147 126 117 111 101 106 108 102 93 94 96 96
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 75 74 69 66 63 62 58 56 51 50 46 45 40 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 12 13 16 18 18 18 16 14 13 11 9 8 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 3 27 44 43 37 51 34 34 60 72 83 84 68 54 58 46 46
200 MB DIV 32 27 37 69 50 79 53 64 40 21 26 10 2 -25 -3 -28 -19
700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -8 -3 1 0 -3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 376 414 466 527 533 507 587 696 880 1004 1130 1224 1324 1423 1533 1618 1687
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.0 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.1 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.9 109.9 111.0 113.0 115.3 117.7 120.1 121.9 123.3 124.6 125.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 26 22 17 15 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. 21. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 11. 9. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 20. 28. 33. 33. 29. 24. 20. 16. 13. 11. 8. 7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 106.9

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 7.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 4.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 17.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 6.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 5.8% 9.7% 1.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 8.6% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 8.0% 9.0% 0.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932020 INVEST 08/13/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated
with a trough of low pressure, extends several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next few days before the
system reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A surface trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Even though this system has been slow to
organize, environmental conditions are still conducive for
development before it reaches cooler waters over the weekend, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of
days. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph away from the west-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with a surface trough of low pressure located a few
hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Even though
this system has been slow to organize, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or two before the system
reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is forecast to
move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the west-central
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Time is running out with this as well. It's simply not organizing and this already nearing 18N.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure stretches from a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
southwestward several hundred miles. The northeastern portion of the
trough has slowly organized during the past couple of days and is
producing persistent shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is forecast to move over
colder waters over the weekend and further development is unlikely
after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

14/1131 UTC 19.5N 109.3W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

1. An area of low pressure is located about 200 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system have decreased since last
night. However, environmental conditions are still expected to be
favorable for another day or so and a tropical depression is likely
to form while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to move over colder
waters over the weekend and further development is unlikely after
that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

14/1730 UTC 19.6N 110.6W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with an area
of low pressure located about 175 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little
better defined since yesterday. However, the associated shower
activity remains limited. While some additional development of this
system is possible, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters on
Saturday and the chance of this system becoming a tropical
depression appears to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

14/2330 UTC 20.6N 111.2W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific

[EquusStorm]

I'm fully rooting for some nice EPac activity as much as anyone, but goodness this has had days and days to organize and it's just not wanting to. Maybe the big one to the south gives us something to watch but the models have been dramatically overestimating the potential of some of these. Surprised they're struggling that much with the favorable MJO passing east. So far the outbreak has only given us a brief category two that died immediately thereafter and a struggling depression. Eight named storms is the record low (2010) to beat and during hyper ATL seasons things kind of die off early here a lot of times; don't think we will be less active than 2010 in total named storms but starting to wonder how many we will actually get. Might near the modern ACE record low possibly?

[bob rulz]

It's only mid-August...plenty of time for the EPAC to produce some good storms.

But it's normal for the EPAC to struggle in hyperactive Atlantic seasons.

[Yellow Evan]

Down to 0/0. This is history.