ATL: PAULETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: PAULETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:42 pm

AL, 92, 2020090418, , BEST, 0, 152N, 252W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#2 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:50 pm

Up to 40/80 in the latest TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#3 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:05 pm

Well hopefully this one won't be as much of a pain in the butt to track like the previous 92L...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#4 Postby ouragans » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:09 pm

Finally!

Code: Select all

3. A tropical wave and area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Last edited by ouragans on Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#5 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:10 pm

Appears to be a good chance that this one will be playing around in the open Atlantic north of the Caribbean over the coming week. Good! I still have 6 more comp days to take...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#6 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:Appears to be a good chance that this one will be playing around in the open Atlantic north of the Caribbean over the coming week. Good! I still have 6 more comp days to take...

Signals look like 9/15 to 10/15 will be a sprint. Rest up
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#7 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:15 pm

About time..

Open atlantic all depends on the interaction. and since 91L is dying quickly there should less of an interaction and out too sea is less likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#8 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:About time..

Open atlantic all depends on the interaction. and since 91L is dying quickly there should less of an interaction and out too sea is less likely.


Hi Aric,

There is very strong ensemble agreement for just that. That's not why 92L is going OTS is due to the weakness in the ridge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#9 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:35 pm

If this goes OTS harmlessly then I'm rooting for it to become a major
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#10 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:39 pm

Looks like it could rack up some ACE while staying out to sea. A good one to track and root for it to become a major knowing it may not impact anybody.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#11 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:40 pm

Really hoping for a nice, harmless, major hurricane fish storm out of this. We've had enough destruction this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#12 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:About time..

Open atlantic all depends on the interaction. and since 91L is dying quickly there should less of an interaction and out too sea is less likely.


Hi Aric,

There is very strong ensemble agreement for just that. That's not why 92L is going OTS is due to the weakness in the ridge.


No I think what he means is that the ensembles are making 92L interact with 91L and because of that they are OTS. If they didn't interact they might not be OTS.

Its too early to declare this OTS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#13 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:06 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:About time..

Open atlantic all depends on the interaction. and since 91L is dying quickly there should less of an interaction and out too sea is less likely.


Hi Aric,

There is very strong ensemble agreement for just that. That's not why 92L is going OTS is due to the weakness in the ridge.


No I think what he means is that the ensembles are making 92L interact with 91L and because of that they are OTS. If they didn't interact they might not be OTS.

Its too early to declare this OTS.


Yes, nobody can say it is a 100% certainty, but it isn't too early to lay odds on OTS at something like 98% based on overwhelming model support for that and overall climo, which favors OTS for most in the E Atl even in a La Nina. Fortunately, there isn't enough westward momentum in the MDR for this to get far west. If someone asked me to lay $1,000 to win $100 on a bet that it would be OTS, I'd take that bet. Bermuda, however, it at much higher risk than the US and Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#14 Postby Jr0d » Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:54 pm

LarryWx wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Hi Aric,

There is very strong ensemble agreement for just that. That's not why 92L is going OTS is due to the weakness in the ridge.


No I think what he means is that the ensembles are making 92L interact with 91L and because of that they are OTS. If they didn't interact they might not be OTS.

Its too early to declare this OTS.


Yes, nobody can say it is a 100% certainty, but it isn't too early to lay odds on OTS at something like 98% based on overwhelming model support for that and overall climo, which favors OTS for most in the E Atl even in a La Nina. Fortunately, there isn't enough westward momentum in the MDR for this to get far west. If someone asked me to lay $1,000 to win $100 on a bet that it would be OTS, I'd take that bet. Bermuda, however, it at much higher risk than the US and Bahamas.


Out to sea, I don't see any scenarios that will allow this one to go west...the next wave might be a different story.

Too bad there is not a site for making weather bets. A skilled forecaster could do quite well. Many people would take that bet the other way, $100 to win $1000 if it does not go out to sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#15 Postby Bizzles » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:04 pm

Jr0d wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
No I think what he means is that the ensembles are making 92L interact with 91L and because of that they are OTS. If they didn't interact they might not be OTS.

Its too early to declare this OTS.


Yes, nobody can say it is a 100% certainty, but it isn't too early to lay odds on OTS at something like 98% based on overwhelming model support for that and overall climo, which favors OTS for most in the E Atl even in a La Nina. Fortunately, there isn't enough westward momentum in the MDR for this to get far west. If someone asked me to lay $1,000 to win $100 on a bet that it would be OTS, I'd take that bet. Bermuda, however, it at much higher risk than the US and Bahamas.


Out to sea, I don't see any scenarios that will allow this one to go west...the next wave might be a different story.

Too bad there is not a site for making weather bets. A skilled forecaster could do quite well. Many people would take that bet the other way, $100 to win $1000 if it does not go out to sea.


https://betonweather.io/ Don't waste all your allowance on it :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#16 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:27 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:No I think what he means is that the ensembles are making 92L interact with 91L and because of that they are OTS. If they didn't interact they might not be OTS.

Its too early to declare this OTS.



Why are they more likely to go out to sea if they interact?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#17 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:48 pm

LarryWx wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Hi Aric,

There is very strong ensemble agreement for just that. That's not why 92L is going OTS is due to the weakness in the ridge.


No I think what he means is that the ensembles are making 92L interact with 91L and because of that they are OTS. If they didn't interact they might not be OTS.

Its too early to declare this OTS.


Yes, nobody can say it is a 100% certainty, but it isn't too early to lay odds on OTS at something like 98% based on overwhelming model support for that and overall climo, which favors OTS for most in the E Atl even in a La Nina. Fortunately, there isn't enough westward momentum in the MDR for this to get far west. If someone asked me to lay $1,000 to win $100 on a bet that it would be OTS, I'd take that bet. Bermuda, however, it at much higher risk than the US and Bahamas.


I mean sure ... all else equal, if you told me a developing wave at 15n, 25w is likely to go OTS, that's easy to agree with simply using climatology as a rationale.

OTOH, if the rationale is that it will go OTS based on the model solutions of the behavior (6-8 days from now) of a rogue ULL spinning in the Central Atlantic .... then, sure I'd definitely lay some dough on the underdog, especially if you're giving me 50-1 odds (~2%) :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#18 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:54 pm

Saved loop as the sun goes down:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#19 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:42 pm

Almost 16N and the circulation of 91L will keep this headed towards the mid Atlantic.
Might even drag down a trough and pull them both OTS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#20 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like it could rack up some ACE while staying out to sea. A good one to track and root for it to become a major knowing it may not impact anybody.


Also it's nice to see a out to sea major... Too many majors inpacted land since 2015. Every year since 2015 had at least 1 landfalling major
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