ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[ClarCari]

Well since BT already says she’s SS, is NHC updating the TWO just a formality then since they won’t issues advisory until 11PM?
It must be odd knowing something is already a system but having to pretend it’s not for procedure.

NHC would have had that best track data for the 5pm advisory cycle.

Nope. BT didn’t upgrade it until right after the 5PM advisories were already released.

[CyclonicFury]

AL, 17, 2020092200, , BEST, 0, 336N, 262W, 50, 1004, TS

[aspen]

AL, 17, 2020092200, , BEST, 0, 336N, 262W, 50, 1004, TS

Back to a mid-grade tropical storm. She should get a decent amount of ACE before dissipating for good.

[tomatkins]

AL, 17, 2020092200, , BEST, 0, 336N, 262W, 50, 1004, TS

Back to a mid-grade tropical storm. She should get a decent amount of ACE before dissipating for good.

The Euro still has this low around moving westward north of the Azores on day 10.

[aspen]

The latest ensembles on Tropical Tidbits show a curve back to the west. I know it’s unlikely, but I hope that Paulette is able to make its way back to >26.5C SSTs and become a hurricane again. That would be enough to make it break a total of 20 ACE.

[us89]

Well since BT already says she’s SS, is NHC updating the TWO just a formality then since they won’t issues advisory until 11PM?
It must be odd knowing something is already a system but having to pretend it’s not for procedure.

NHC would have had that best track data for the 5pm advisory cycle.

Nope. BT didn’t upgrade it until right after the 5PM advisories were already released.

Whoops, you're right. This forum runs on Central time when not logged in, so I read the SS update as being posted at 4:17

[ClarCari]

NHC would have had that best track data for the 5pm advisory cycle.

Nope. BT didn’t upgrade it until right after the 5PM advisories were already released.

Whoops, you're right. This forum runs on Central time when not logged in, so I read the SS update as being posted at 4:17

haha I feel you! I’m in CDT too. It gets even more confusing for storms like Paulette getting advisories way out by the azores too.

[supercane4867]

[plasticup]

AL, 17, 2020092200, , BEST, 0, 336N, 262W, 50, 1004, TS

Back to a mid-grade tropical storm. She should get a decent amount of ACE before dissipating for good.

The Euro still has this low around moving westward north of the Azores on day 10.

Yep, two more loops! That would be hilarious. I don’t see it losing latitude and coming back to Bermuda though

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1308233570293440513

[tomatkins]

Back to a mid-grade tropical storm. She should get a decent amount of ACE before dissipating for good.

The Euro still has this low around moving westward north of the Azores on day 10.

Yep, two more loops! That would be hilarious. I don’t see it losing latitude and coming back to Bermuda though

Mught be long enough to bridge the gap until the Caribbean sees some action.

[aspen]

If Paulette follows the NHC forecast track exactly are goes west as a remnant low, could it get far enough west to regenerate a second time over warmer SSTs?

[tomatkins]

Back to a mid-grade tropical storm. She should get a decent amount of ACE before dissipating for good.

The Euro still has this low around moving westward north of the Azores on day 10.

Yep, two more loops! That would be hilarious. I don’t see it losing latitude and coming back to Bermuda though

On the other hand, the hurricane models have this moving into Portugal - which would be their second storm of the month.

[ElectricStorm]

Welcome back Paulette! Only in 2020 where we get the P storm and Beta active at the same time

[AnnularCane]

Well! Welcome back, Paulie.

[SconnieCane]

Paulette will be the Leslie ('18) of 2020. Just hanging around by the Azores moving in circles for weeks over SSTs just warm enough to hang on.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

TS Paulette after regenerating and coming back to see the Atlantic basin.

[ElectricStorm]

If Paulette follows the NHC forecast track exactly are goes west as a remnant low, could it get far enough west to regenerate a second time over warmer SSTs?

I don't know but it seems like it could... Nadine '12, Leslie '18, and now potentially Paulette '20. These girls just can't ever figure out what exactly they want to do... just like real life

[ClarCari]

What’s fitting is that Paulette was the one who started this big explosion of storms 2 weeks ago, it only makes sense she comes back to die with (or heck even outlive) all of them. mwahahaha

[tomatkins]

If Paulette follows the NHC forecast track exactly are goes west as a remnant low, could it get far enough west to regenerate a second time over warmer SSTs?

The 0Z Icon brings it into the area of 26 C water shown in this image by day 5, so its possible I guess.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png