ATL: PAULETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#341 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:17 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
aspen wrote:Still has barely intensified. Recon found an extrapolated pressure of 975 mbar.

975mb in a Cat.1 hurricane?

Hanna was 973 mbar as a Cat 1. Isaias, Marco, and Nana all had rather high pressures for a Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#342 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:18 pm

aspen wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
aspen wrote:Still has barely intensified. Recon found an extrapolated pressure of 975 mbar.

975mb in a Cat.1 hurricane?

Hanna was 973 mbar as a Cat 1. Isaias, Marco, and Nana all had rather high pressures for a Cat 1.

I’m used to seeing pressures in the 980’s for Cat.1’s. Pressure seems more inline with a Cat.2.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#343 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:22 pm

Can imagine the dry air intrusions are keeping the rather impressive FL winds from mixing down just yet... a few boundary layer issues to go, though the pressure continuing to fall is hardly surprising given its highly impressive appearance. Any additional dry air intrusions could make it hard to get surface winds to 100kt for an official major if it DOES manage to intrude when shear drops to none, but perhaps the trough interaction could baroclinically force it to major briefly before it begins to fall apart Tuesday.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#344 Postby us89 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:30 pm

aspen wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
aspen wrote:Still has barely intensified. Recon found an extrapolated pressure of 975 mbar.

975mb in a Cat.1 hurricane?

Hanna was 973 mbar as a Cat 1. Isaias, Marco, and Nana all had rather high pressures for a Cat 1.


To be fair, Hanna was RI'ing and would have easily been a cat 2 with another hour or two over water.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#345 Postby Do_For_Love » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:17 pm

I've been confused by the pressure/wind gradient being different for storms before, like how Dorian had winds as high as Wilma even though it peaked at 910 Mbar whereas Wilma peaked at 882. My understanding was that one of the main factors was the surrounding atmospheric pressure, like in that case it was probably higher for Dorian than Wilma. Not sure if that's correct but I think someone told me that before.

Anyway, it looks like Paulette is trying to wrap that heavier convection around the eye but still struggling a bit. Dry air maybe? Bermuda appears to be starting to get some rain from the storm as well on radar.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#346 Postby us89 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:24 pm

Do_For_Love wrote:I've been confused by the pressure/wind gradient being different for storms before, like how Dorian had winds as high as Wilma even though it peaked at 910 Mbar whereas Wilma peaked at 882. My understanding was that one of the main factors was the surrounding atmospheric pressure, like in that case it was probably higher for Dorian than Wilma. Not sure if that's correct but I think someone told me that before.


Yeah, background pressures are generally lower in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico regions than they are in the open Atlantic. Winds are driven by pressure gradient, which is basically the difference in pressure over distance. So if you have two storms of the same size, central pressure, etc... but one is in the GOM and one is in the open Atlantic, the storm in the open ocean will generally have greater max wind speeds because the surrounding pressure is higher - greater pressure difference over the same distance means a stronger gradient.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#347 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:05 pm

Paulette is also a fairly large storm with a broader RMW. That will lead to mismatches compared to, say, Sally.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#348 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:19 pm

So is the eye suppose to make landfall or just brush Bermuda???
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#349 Postby sikkar » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:26 pm

Blinhart wrote:So is the eye suppose to make landfall or just brush Bermuda???


We'll find out very soon.
http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... user=RADAR

Also for pressure watchers:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=M&tz=EST
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#350 Postby Macrocane » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:00 pm

Looks very annular, it's a beautiful storm.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#351 Postby us89 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:13 pm

Macrocane wrote:Looks very annular, it's a beautiful storm.


It does look rather impressive, but it isn't annular (yet, at least). Annular TCs don't have any rainbands - and I'm seeing several of those on satellite imagery.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#352 Postby Jr0d » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:58 pm

Looks like it strengthening on the IR. Going to be a rough night/morning for Bermuda.

I need to go to bed but I might look for live feeds from Bermuda instead.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#353 Postby sikkar » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:22 am

Looks like Bermuda's radar bit the dust?
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#354 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:55 am

96 mph gust! Wow!
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#355 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:36 am

In the eye now, and have been for 10-15 minutes. The first half of the storm we were sheltered but the westerly wind will be more challenging for my house. Next 30 minutes should be interesting.

Doesn’t feel like Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#356 Postby sikkar » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:37 am

plasticup wrote:In the eye now, and have been for 10-15 minutes. The first half of the storm wasn’t too bad but the westerly wind will be more challenging for my house.

Doesn’t feel like Cat 1.


Did you guys lose power? Stay safe.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#357 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:56 am

It just amazes me the number of times & how often Bermuda, a tiny Island in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, gets hit directly. I guess they are in the right spot for cross hair from storms coming from all directions.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#358 Postby JahJa » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:06 am

sikkar wrote:
plasticup wrote:In the eye now, and have been for 10-15 minutes. The first half of the storm wasn’t too bad but the westerly wind will be more challenging for my house.

Doesn’t feel like Cat 1.


Did you guys lose power? Stay safe.


I lost power around 2:30am and I think the majority of the island is without power which is unsurprising. I live on a hill and can see people with power and I can tell you how jealous I am at the moment of them having air conditioning.

I def agree that it doesn’t feel like a Cat 1 storm though!
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#359 Postby al78 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:10 am

Blinhart wrote:So is the eye suppose to make landfall or just brush Bermuda???


Looks to me like a direct hit.

I think the building codes on Bermuda are decent, so hopefully there won't be too much wind damage.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#360 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:11 am

NDG wrote:It just amazes me the number of times & how often Bermuda, a tiny Island in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, gets hit directly. I guess they are in the right spot for cross hair from storms coming from all directions.

i feel like that’s part of the problem. bermuda is kinda “in the way” of a very common path that storms cross in the atlantic.
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