ATL: PAULETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#401 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:37 pm

Not yet a major.

17L PAULETTE 200915 0000 35.1N 63.3W ATL 90 965
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#402 Postby ClarCari » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:41 pm

Even if it does go thru an EWRC it could still recover and go through RI easily in the next two days before it starts really weakening.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#403 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:20 am

Looks to be steady state right now: 90 kt seems right, although 95 kt would also be a decent estimate.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#404 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:52 am

Quickly running out of time if it wants to be a major.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#405 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:46 am

Nearly all global models have Paulette turn south after ex-tropical transition and possibly regenerates into a TC SW of Azores.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#406 Postby Do_For_Love » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:42 am

supercane4867 wrote:Nearly all global models have Paulette turn south after ex-tropical transition and possibly regenerates into a TC SW of Azores.


Wow, would she keep the same name?

Kinda looks to me like she is trying to wrap up some intense convection around the eye but falling short. She still has a little bit of time, we'll see...
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#407 Postby tomatkins » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:03 am

Do_For_Love wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Nearly all global models have Paulette turn south after ex-tropical transition and possibly regenerates into a TC SW of Azores.


Wow, would she keep the same name?

Kinda looks to me like she is trying to wrap up some intense convection around the eye but falling short. She still has a little bit of time, we'll see...

My understanding is that as long as it keeps the same low level center, it will keep the name. This seems like it will be a relatively easy case - Paulette isnt forecast to merge with a frontal low or anything.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#408 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:07 am

Do_For_Love wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Nearly all global models have Paulette turn south after ex-tropical transition and possibly regenerates into a TC SW of Azores.


Wow, would she keep the same name?

Kinda looks to me like she is trying to wrap up some intense convection around the eye but falling short. She still has a little bit of time, we'll see...

It would be crazy and totally 2020 if she redevelops south of the Azores, then wanders west into warmer waters and then is able to RI into a major.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#409 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:15 am

Can smoke play a role in TC intensity? There's a ton of smoke out over New England making its way to Paulette.

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#410 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:18 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Can smoke play a role in TC intensity? There's a ton of smoke out over New England making its way to Paulette.

https://i.imgur.com/HbTSiCd.jpg

I believe Ernesto ‘18 ingested a ton of wildfire smoke, and that could’ve helped kept its intensity down, so maybe it’s possible for Paulette.

Also, I didn’t know all of that smoke was right over me.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#411 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:39 am

I highly doubt this becomes a major hurricane at this point.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#412 Postby tomatkins » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:11 am

aspen wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Can smoke play a role in TC intensity? There's a ton of smoke out over New England making its way to Paulette.

https://i.imgur.com/HbTSiCd.jpg

I believe Ernesto ‘18 ingested a ton of wildfire smoke, and that could’ve helped kept its intensity down, so maybe it’s possible for Paulette.

Also, I didn’t know all of that smoke was right over me.

Here outside of Baltimore the sky has been hazy with the sun quite obscured since yesterday. No smoke smell though - I think the smoke is like 20000 feet up.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#413 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:40 am

No longer forecasted to become a major. :roll:

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural
changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic
zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water
vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into
the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's
rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system,
while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments
of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial
intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by
the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical
characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity
to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface
temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water
temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes
more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a
result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its
extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an
agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical
guidance.

The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of
circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and
therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be
northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate
further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward
the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east-
southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the
western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low
to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little
faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the
GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#414 Postby Dean_175 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:52 am

aspen wrote:
Do_For_Love wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Nearly all global models have Paulette turn south after ex-tropical transition and possibly regenerates into a TC SW of Azores.


Wow, would she keep the same name?

Kinda looks to me like she is trying to wrap up some intense convection around the eye but falling short. She still has a little bit of time, we'll see...

It would be crazy and totally 2020 if she redevelops south of the Azores, then wanders west into warmer waters and then is able to RI into a major.



No, nothing in 2020 seems to want to become a major.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#415 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:53 am

Yep, definitely smoke from the California wildfires getting indigested into Paulette.

Image
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#416 Postby St0rmTh0r » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:38 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Yep, definitely smoke from the California wildfires getting indigested into Paulette.

https://i.ibb.co/93mbbdM/g16wvmid.jpg

That's amazing how that smoke traveled thousands of miles to effect a hurricane way out in the ocean
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#417 Postby storminabox » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:12 am

I’m gonna be really bummed if this doesn’t become a major (for 2020 stats purposes). Doesn’t seem likely at this point.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#418 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:09 pm

storminabox wrote:I’m gonna be really bummed if this doesn’t become a major (for 2020 stats purposes). Doesn’t seem likely at this point.

You and me both! :roll:
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#419 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:12 pm

Come on Paulette! You can do it!
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#420 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:57 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Yep, definitely smoke from the California wildfires getting indigested into Paulette.

https://i.ibb.co/93mbbdM/g16wvmid.jpg


Just curious - how do you know it's the smoke? I don't see any sort of dry air entrainment on satellite.
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