ATL: PAULETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#421 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:35 pm

15/1730 UTC 38.4N 56.7W T4.5/5.0 PAULETTE -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#422 Postby ClarCari » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:59 pm

Whatever happens from here on out, Paulette wayyyyyy over performed. Last week she was supposed to weaken to 40mph and maybe restrengthen to a strong tropical storm by Bermuda. Instead she held her own and then strengthened to a Cat.2 after making a perfect landfall over the Tiny Target of Bermuda. Paulette was a class all her own, and I hope the effects on Bermuda were minimal.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#423 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:01 pm

And down to 85 kt. Boooo.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#424 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:30 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Yep, definitely smoke from the California wildfires getting indigested into Paulette.

https://i.ibb.co/93mbbdM/g16wvmid.jpg


Just curious - how do you know it's the smoke? I don't see any sort of dry air entrainment on satellite.

 https://twitter.com/weathergeeks/status/1305955545673691137


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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#425 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:41 pm

:uarrow: Apparently that smoke made its way over to me too! It's been cloudy to mostly cloudy all day though, so it's hard to notice much right now.

I don't see it mentioned in the discussion, but is there still a chance Paulette could eventually become tropical again?
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#426 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:10 pm

AnnularCane wrote::uarrow: Apparently that smoke made its way over to me too! It's been cloudy to mostly cloudy all day though, so it's hard to notice much right now.

I don't see it mentioned in the discussion, but is there still a chance Paulette could eventually become tropical again?


I wouldn't count it out. I think the NHC will need to keep it on the discussions even after becoming post-tropical. After all, it will be dropping in latitude over warmer water.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#427 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:53 pm

The 18z GFS has Paulette tighten up and restrengthen into a TS by 120 hours...then it goes the extra mile and keeps it around for like a week, sending it south before turning west and becoming a hurricane again.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#428 Postby Chris90 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:00 pm

It would be so very interesting if Paulette not only managed to come back around, intensify back into a hurricane, but also make it all the way to major, verifying those forecasts.... just doing it days later.

I think a scenario like that could earn Paulette "most interesting to track" for the ATL 2020.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#429 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:40 pm

GFS keeps this cyclone active past Oct 1st.
Could break one of these records...


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899
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Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#430 Postby ClarCari » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:49 pm

Spacecoast wrote:GFS keeps this cyclone active past Oct 1st.
Could break one of these records...


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899
https://i.ibb.co/9Z0DjFy/250px-1899-San-Ciriaco-hurricane-track.png

Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971
https://i.ibb.co/7XMqCxr/220px-Ginger-1971-track.png


Could certainly be possible! Extratropical transition could be short lived.

This will also be a more fun kind of interesting track to watch unlike Our Dear Aunt Sally over here :lol:
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#431 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:16 pm

Spacecoast wrote:GFS keeps this cyclone active past Oct 1st.
Could break one of these records...


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899
https://i.ibb.co/9Z0DjFy/250px-1899-San-Ciriaco-hurricane-track.png

Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971
https://i.ibb.co/7XMqCxr/220px-Ginger-1971-track.png

Lol the non-consecutive and consecutive records are pretty much the same.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#432 Postby storminabox » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:20 pm

ClarCari wrote:Whatever happens from here on out, Paulette wayyyyyy over performed. Last week she was supposed to weaken to 40mph and maybe restrengthen to a strong tropical storm by Bermuda. Instead she held her own and then strengthened to a Cat.2 after making a perfect landfall over the Tiny Target of Bermuda. Paulette was a class all her own, and I hope the effects on Bermuda were minimal.


I agree for sure. The fact that it got as far as it did, after having such a rough couple of days is notable. I just wish it would've taken that extra step and become a major (it wouldn't of taken much). In the grand scheme of things, however, the difference between a 90kt storm and 100kt one is very small.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#433 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:30 pm

NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.
There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#434 Postby us89 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:43 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.
There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.


I wish Paulette could merge with something else and then have that storm gain tropical characteristics - then we'd get further into Greek letter territory.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#435 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:05 am

us89 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.
There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.


I wish Paulette could merge with something else and then have that storm gain tropical characteristics - then we'd get further into Greek letter territory.


Not going to happen. It would still be named Paulette.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#436 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:23 am

The chance of regeneration near the Azores is looking increasingly likely
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#437 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:43 am

Even though it didn't make it to a major it's still very impressive that it's a cat 2 in this location.

Image
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#438 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:45 am

06z HWRF end of the run showing a decent TS

Image
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Hurricane - Discussion

#439 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:57 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
us89 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:NHC now mentioning potential for regeneration.
There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters.


I wish Paulette could merge with something else and then have that storm gain tropical characteristics - then we'd get further into Greek letter territory.


Not going to happen. It would still be named Paulette.


Depends. The unnamed tropical storm in 2005 merged with a frontal low, which then spit out a new low, which became Vince.

I don't think that will happen in this case, Paulette is forecast to remain on its own.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#440 Postby gfsperpendicular » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:03 am

This will almost certainly be mentioned on the 2pm TWO, meaning that we'd have 2 AOIs north of 40N :cold:
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