ATL: PAULETTE - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Models

#41 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:43 am

While an OTS solution is still most likely due to the latitude it will gain by the time it reaches 60W, we'll have to keep an eye on the 500 mb pattern in the SW Atlantic. If the storm is weaker and follows a slightly more southern track near the VI or PR AND mid level ridging builds in about a week per latest Euro, then this storm could threaten Bahamas or east US coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020090700&fh=168
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Re: ATL: SEVENTEEN - Models

#42 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:49 am

ronjon wrote:While an OTS solution is still most likely due to the latitude it will gain by the time it reaches 60W, we'll have to keep an eye on the 500 mb pattern in the SW Atlantic. If the storm is weaker and follows a slightly more southern track near the VI or PR AND mid level ridging builds in about a week per latest Euro, then this storm could threaten Bahamas or east US coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020090700&fh=168


Just to be clear, this "OTS solution" literally shows a landfall on Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#43 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:53 am

Both the 12z GFS and 12z CMC have Paulette remain on the weaker side until 6-7 days out as it nears Bermuda and finds more favorable conditions to intensify. The GFS has a Category 3 hurricane in 9-10 days, which is too far out to take literally, but it suggests Paulette could have a better opportunity to strengthen down the road.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#44 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:48 pm

Gets close to Bermuda this run of the 12Z GFS. Animation starts at hour 132, the storms is well NE of the Lesser Antilles.

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#45 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:00 pm

EPS sure is ominous for this TS. A huge westward shift.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#46 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:02 pm

12z HWRF makes Paulette nearly into a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#47 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:EPS sure is ominous for this TS. A huge westward shift.


Indeed! Here on this 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette:

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:18 pm

I suspect these models now seen it too weak initially to influence Rene, escape then intensify north of the islands? Basically a Fran or Floyd scenario?
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#49 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:02 pm

GFS shows Paulette with a donut eye as a likely major hurricane near Bermuda in 7 days or so.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#50 Postby TJRE » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm



:double:

6hrs between runs....... let the madness begin
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#51 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:41 pm

TJRE wrote:https://imgur.com/45w2Sbu

:double:

6hrs between runs....... let the madness begin

Yikes. It’s still within the 10 day range, lots of model
shifts to come.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#52 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:41 pm

There really isn't too much room for error on the 18z GFS evolution for Paulette. A lobe rotating along the main trough axis is the primary reason it goes offshore this run. Can't assume that will happen 7-8 days out being in a very data sparse region.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#53 Postby Nuno » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:49 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I suspect these models now seen it too weak initially to influence Rene, escape then intensify north of the islands? Basically a Fran or Floyd scenario?


I could see that as a possibility. I think we'll get further west shifts before recurvature as the models get a better grip on the interaction between Paulette and Rene, which was obviously overdone. I'm curious what next set of ensembles will show, they've been creeping westwards already.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#54 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:49 pm

TJRE wrote:https://imgur.com/45w2Sbu

:double:

6hrs between runs....... let the madness begin

Yeah...that’s a wee bit too close for comfort on the 18z rum.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#55 Postby TJRE » Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:09 pm

more fuel to the fire :roll:
GEFS 12Z 18z ENS.....comp




Can I say, slower and farther south????

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90718&fh=6
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#56 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:43 pm

Ridge to the north..

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#57 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:48 pm

Blocked..

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#58 Postby TJRE » Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:Blocked..

https://i.imgur.com/4I4hdcB.png




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Last edited by TJRE on Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#59 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:57 pm

SFLcane wrote:Blocked..

https://i.imgur.com/4I4hdcB.png


I have my doubts. We saw with Laura the EPS can incorrectly display the ridge as being too strong.

This one screams OTS to me. Bermuda threat at most.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#60 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:00 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:There really isn't too much room for error on the 18z GFS evolution for Paulette. A lobe rotating along the main trough axis is the primary reason it goes offshore this run. Can't assume that will happen 7-8 days out being in a very data sparse region.

Pretty much, but it does show the evolution of a stronger ridge compared to its prior runs. Which isn’t really good news to be quite honest.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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