ATL: PAULETTE - Models

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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#61 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:32 pm

even nhc talk about high building more west we know next few days if that case and see nhc move cone more west
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#62 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:55 pm

Could 94L have something to do with the ultimate destiny too? So many unknowns with the medium to long range models being so horrendous this year.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#63 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:25 pm

Far too many unknowns to make an accurate forecast. Still over a week away. Even looking at trends is useless for right now. Pattern so far suggest stronger ridging. Ridging has been strong since last month. Pattern this year has been W-ATL based with +NAO. Hyperactive Cape Verde season increases chances of US strikes. Those in strike zones stay vigilant.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#64 Postby Keldeo1997 » Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:41 am

Image

New Euro is not good for Bermuda...

Edit: Not good for PR and the LA either
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#65 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:15 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Could 94L have something to do with the ultimate destiny too? So many unknowns with the medium to long range models being so horrendous this year.


Especially out in open water where we have almost no observations
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#66 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:56 pm

And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are like 31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#67 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:21 pm

LarryWx wrote:And now for something really wacky, the 12Z Para GEFS has 2 (I think there are like 31 members) Paulette members that hit the SE US! One is a major H and the other is a TS.


And they both hit Georgia, which is even wackier
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#68 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:15 pm

Interesting trends


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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#69 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:24 pm

The models do seem to like the idea of Paulette intensifying into a hurricane after 3-4 days. If these play out and Paulette is able to undergo RI, she could finish with 15-20 ACE, a nice boost to 2020's total.
Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#70 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:01 pm

Another oddity with regard to Paulette: although the 12Z CMC ensemble has no member with the wave just off Africa even coming close to the Bahamas and CONUS, it has 4 Paulette members (20%) threatening and 2 that hit FL.

Also, the 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.

To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#71 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:16 pm

Looking less and less likely that Bermuda dodges this one.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#72 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:49 pm

LarryWx wrote:Another oddity with regard to Paulette: although the 12Z CMC ensemble has no member with the wave just off Africa even coming close to the Bahamas and CONUS, it has 4 members (20%) threatening and 2 that hit FL.

Also, the 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.

To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major.


Thank you sir. I guess you saw my post from above as well. The 12Z Para GFS Ensembles compared to the 6Z Para GFS Ensembles. Did you notice that group of those stronger ones went almost 5 degrees farther west? 6Z had them turning around 65W and then 12Z had them turning around 70W. Do you have any ideas as to why these changes might be taking place? I'm curious as to whether the storm is just staying weaker for longer in the central Atlantic due to the shear and then being forced more westward because of that extra time going west or whether these changes are due to the trough to the north being flatter?
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#73 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:02 pm

Also, is everyone in agreement that there will be no CONUS impacts from this one? I mean. It is 2020 and all but...???? Just wanted to see if anyone had any concerns? I went through Florence personally and remember the crazy forecast changes with that one so I'm just curious. Thanks!

Image
Last edited by 'CaneFreak on Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:50 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#74 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:06 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Another oddity with regard to Paulette: although the 12Z CMC ensemble has no member with the wave just off Africa even coming close to the Bahamas and CONUS, it has 4 members (20%) threatening and 2 that hit FL.

Also, the 18Z GEFS has 2 of 21 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20.

To top that off, the 18Z Para GEFS has 4 of ~31 Paulette members hitting the SE US 9/18-20 with Hs, some major.


Thank you sir. I guess you saw my post from above as well. The 12Z Para GFS Ensembles compared to the 6Z Para GFS Ensembles. Did you notice that group of those stronger ones went almost 5 degrees farther west? 6Z had them turning around 65W and then 12Z had them turning around 70W. Do you have any ideas as to why these changes might be taking place? I'm curious as to whether the storm is just staying weaker for longer in the central Atlantic due to the shear and then being forced more westward because of that extra time going west or whether these changes are due to the trough to the north being flatter?


To be honest, I haven't yet had a chance to investigate it enough to answer you. But good questions!
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#75 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:09 pm

00z GFS coming in significantly stronger in the short term. Cat 1/2 by 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#76 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:15 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z GFS coming in significantly stronger in the short term. Cat 1/2 by 96 hours.


More west too, major hurricane recurving between Bermuda and the US by 138 hours.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:07 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z GFS coming in significantly stronger in the short term. Cat 1/2 by 96 hours.


More west too, major hurricane recurving between Bermuda and the US by 138 hours.


It will definitely keep us up at night in the short term...
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#78 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:38 am

Euro also blows it up.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#79 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:03 am

Models far stronger this run. I think the more westerly course takes them over the warmer gulf stream, thus the difference. Bermuda in the cross hairs.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#80 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:12 am

Most 12z models now bring this to hurricane strength. 06z GEFS ensembles (00z para ensemble) are also stronger than before. Safe for a single member, all tracks recurve away from the US, but Bermuda seems to be directly in Paulette's path.

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