ATL: PAULETTE - Models

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plasticup
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#81 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:22 am

kevin wrote:Most 12z models now bring this to hurricane strength. 06z GEFS ensembles (00z para ensemble) are also stronger than before. Safe for a single member, all tracks recurve away from the US, but Bermuda seems to be directly in Paulette's path.

https://i.imgur.com/9clNT5G.png

https://i.imgur.com/NzwLF04.png

https://i.imgur.com/Oy3zpXZ.png


Reminiscent of Humberto.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#82 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:08 am

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#83 Postby shiny-pebble » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:01 am

Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#84 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:29 pm

shiny-pebble wrote:Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

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Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#85 Postby mitchell » Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:48 pm

plasticup wrote:
shiny-pebble wrote:Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

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Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major


I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#86 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:03 pm

mitchell wrote:
plasticup wrote:
shiny-pebble wrote:Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

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Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major


I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!

It doesn’t, gfs is too low res to accurately resolve winds. Considering where Paulette is located, I would imagine anything mid 960s or lower would equate to a cat3
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#87 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:05 pm

mitchell wrote:
plasticup wrote:
shiny-pebble wrote:Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major


I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!


It's influenced by factors like environmental background pressure and storm size (smaller storm=tighter gradient=not as low pressures required to produce very strong winds); but it certainly could be.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#88 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:05 pm

mitchell wrote:
plasticup wrote:
shiny-pebble wrote:Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major


I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!


You can find the 10 meter elevation windfield here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91012&fh=6

Text in the top right outputs the maximum wind speed. The 12z run maxes out at 84 knots while passing Bermuda, briefly weakens, then has a second maximum of 88 knots while making the extra-tropical transition.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#89 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:19 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
mitchell wrote:
plasticup wrote:
Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major


I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!

It doesn’t, gfs is too low res to accurately resolve winds. Considering where Paulette is located, I would imagine anything mid 960s or lower would equate to a cat3


GFS had similar issues with Laura as well if I remember correctly, bringing it in as a low-end Cat 2 despite pressure in the 940s.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#90 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:47 pm

The euro is having Fujiwara fits. It has systems spinning around systems to where its hard to even follow. I dont think the models (for this reason) are doing a very good job on this scenario. It has Rene following Paulette in tandem only to spin around the next system (Sally) only to die out heading to the GA from the NE
?????
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#91 Postby mitchell » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:48 pm

plasticup wrote:
You can find the 10 meter elevation windfield here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91012&fh=6


Thank you! I've looked at that graphic a million times and never seen that text you pointed me to.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#92 Postby mitchell » Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:50 pm

mitchell wrote:
plasticup wrote:
You can find the 10 meter elevation windfield here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91012&fh=6


Thank you! I've looked at those 10 meter winds model output graphics a million times and never seen that text you pointed me to.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#93 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:00 pm

0z gfs does not look good for Bermuda. Passes very near the island as a cat3
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#94 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:07 am

00z Euro continues to be too weak through 72 hours. NHC forecast at this point is a solid Cat 1, whereas the model shows a 45 knot TS.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#95 Postby plasticup » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:28 am

Cat 3, eyewall over my house.

Image
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#96 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:52 pm

18z HWRF is weaker but still shows a Cat 2/3 hurricane (it might be underestimating the winds). Bermuda gets struck by the eastern eyewall.
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#97 Postby plasticup » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:18 am

Image

Cat 3 landfall is still in the cards
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#98 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:50 pm

18Z GFS has at 294 a weak but hanging on Paulette way ESE of Teddy at 26N, 39W moving WSW!

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#99 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:14 pm

18z GFS hangs onto Paulette for the next 16 days! Of course it weakens significantly after four days.
:double:
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Models

#100 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:59 pm

The latest gfs run is making me wonder if my fantasy storm could become a reality. A storm making two trips around the Atlantic.
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