EPAC: KARINA - Remnants

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EPAC: KARINA - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:31 pm

92E INVEST 200910 1800 15.0N 110.0W EPAC 15


2. A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles south-southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:05 am

50/70

A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles
south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby bob rulz » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:15 am

The EPAC is feeling a little left out..."hey, I can generate storms too!"
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby ClarCari » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:02 pm

With all hell breaking loose in the Atlantic LMAO this thing could very much become Karina and quit in two days and I guarantee nobody will notice :lol:
Unless it becomes a cute Fish Major GOODBYE.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:42 pm

bob rulz wrote:The EPAC is feeling a little left out..."hey, I can generate storms too!"


EPAC: Look at me! I can generate storms too!
** we suddenly see two or three invests popping up with medium to high chances on the 5-day outlook, then two tropical depressions form almost simultaneously and are named shortly thereafter

5 minutes later

cries in La Niña
** both or all struggle, don't get beyond 40 knots and look like squashed, wet burgers with the meat patty somewhere off to the side

Just some good ol' La Niña humour. :ggreen: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: EPAC: 16-E - TROPICAL DEPRESSION

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:47 pm

This is now a Tropical Depression. Like the NHC needs more storms to keep track of.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 112.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:08 pm

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 112.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 112.9
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and a west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the
next few days

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday,
and further gradual strengthening is anticipated on Monday and
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020

The last few visible satellite images indicated convection growing
closer to the center of a low pressure area that NHC has been
tracking for the past few days. Since the low was already
well-defined this afternoon, the development of organized deep
convection means that a tropical depression has formed. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB/SAB fixes
and earlier ASCAT data. The depression is embedded within a
moderate easterly wind-shear environment, partially related to its
position in the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough structure. Global model
guidance is in reasonable agreement on the large-scale circulation
becoming focused on the new tropical cyclone and a slight relaxation
of the shear during the next couple of days. This change should
lead to gradual intensification, and the new forecast is between the
model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids. Beyond 2-3 days,
decreasing SSTs and increasing dry air entrainment should promote
weakening, and that is reflected below.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain northwestward or 315/08
kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward, causing the
cyclone to move west-northwestward for a few days after the weekend.
A westward turn is forecast at long range due to the shallow
cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. One big uncertainty with this
forecast is how it interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough
circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. For now, it is
assumed that only a slight slow down occurs as the depression
becomes the dominant circulation in the area, and the forecast is
more consistent with the GFS- or UKMET-based guidance. However, a
slower ECMWF-like solution is also possible, but is being given less
weight at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:04 am

Should be Karina shortly.

EP, 16, 2020091306, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1133W, 35, 1003, TS
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:00 am

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KARINA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 113.8W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 113.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Recent scatterometer data showed an area of 30-35 kt winds within
about 80 n mi of the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E in the
southwestern quadrant. Based on this data, along with 35-40 kt
intensity estimates from TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus,
the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Karina with an initial
intensity of 35 kt. Satellite imagery show that the system is
still being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, with the
low-level center exposed to the northeast of the main convective
mass.

The initial motion is now 310/10. The global models forecast a
mid-level ridge to build westward to the north of Karina in a day or
two, causing the cyclone to move west- northwestward. A more
westward motion is expected near the end of the forecast period as a
weakening Karin is steered more by the low-level trade winds. The
track guidance is in fair agreement with this scenario, although
there is some spread in the forward speed, possibly due differences
in how Karina interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough
circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. The new forecast
track will follow the forward speed of the consensus models and has
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

The forecast track takes the center of Karin over cooler water,
with the system crossing the 25-26C isotherms in 48-72 h. Present
indications are that the shear will decrease a little before the 72
h point, so the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening
during that time. After 72 h, the cooler water and dry air
entrainment should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast has
some minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it is in
best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model and the
Florida State Superensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 17.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:11 pm

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 114.7W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the southwest of the center. An automated Mexican weather
station on Clarion Island recently reported a wind gust to 44 mph
(71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Karina's center is a little bit closer to the deep convection this
morning, resulting in intensity estimates increasing slightly.
Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB
and SAB, respectively, and an overnight SATCON estimate of 42 kt,
Karina's initial intensity is assumed to be 40 kt. The moderate
northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is not expected
to change appreciably during the next few days. However, Karina
will remain over ocean waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for
the next 48 hours, which should allow for a gradual intensification
trend during that period. The shear is forecast to lighten up in
3-4 days, but by then Karina will be over colder waters and in a
drier, more stable environment, which should induce weakening.
Karina is likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally close to the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity
consensus and shows weakening starting a little sooner than before.

Karina is moving toward the west-northwest (300/9 kt), south of a
mid-level ridge axis which extends from northwestern Mexico
southwestward over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Karina on
this general heading with a very gradually decreasing forward speed
through day 4. Once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is
expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. No
significant changes in the track forecast were required compared to
the previous prediction, and the official forecast lies generally
close to the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 17.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:21 pm

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...KARINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 116.0W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 116.0 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through late Monday or early
Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin later on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

A midday ASCAT pass revealed that Karina still has an elongated
circulation and is likely still attached to the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
The center is also displaced to the northeast of the deepest
convection due to ongoing moderate northeasterly shear. The ASCAT
data confirmed that the storm currently has maximum winds of 40 k,
with most of the tropical-storm-force winds located over the
southern semicircle. With the shear not expected to decrease from
its current magnitude, only modest strengthening is expected during
the next 36 hours or so while Karina remains over waters warmer than
26 degrees Celsius. The peak intensity shown in the official
forecast has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is now the
highest intensity shown by any of the intensity models. Colder
waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should induce gradual
weakening after day 2, with Karina likely to lose all of its deep
convection and become a remnant low by day 4.

Karina turned a little bit to the left today but still has a
west-northwestward heading (290/10 kt). A mid-level ridge located
to the north should keep Karina on a west-northwestward trajectory
with some reduction in forward speed through day 4. Once it weakens
to a remnant low, Karina is expected to turn westward, steered by
lower-level trade winds. There is some north-south divergence among
the track models during Karina's expected remnant low stage, but the
overall guidance envelope has not shifted. Therefore, the updated
NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and
lies close to the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCE
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:32 pm

Karina only exists to brag to its compatriots in the hurricane afterlife about developing in a La Niña and giving forecasters another headache to keep track of
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby ClarCari » Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:50 pm

I keep double taking this storm name bc for a split sec I always see Katrina :oops:
Maybe it’s also Sally giving us some Katrina creeps rn
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:12 pm

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...KARINA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 117.1W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 117.1 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Karina's satellite presentation is not terribly impressive, with the
deep convection sheared well south of what appears to be a somewhat
elongated low-level center by 15 to 20 kt of northerly shear. The
subjective Dvorak Final-T numbers have decreased a little in the
last 6 hours, but overall a blend of the objective and subjective
satellite estimates yields an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

Karina only has a limited window for strengthening, with SSTs
forecast to cool to 26C along the forecast track within 36 hours.
With the shear forecast to persist during until the waters cool and
the atmosphere dries out, the intensity guidance has trended
downward again this cycle, and so has the NHC prediction, which is
close to or a little above HCCA and higher than the simple
consensus aids. Karina should become a remnant low in about 4 days
and is expected to dissipate by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 285/11. Karina should be steered
generally west-northwestward for the next several days, followed by
a turn toward the west in the low-level flow by 96 hours. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...KARINA JOGS WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 118.2W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 118.2 West. Karina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected by tonight, with this motion continuing for
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Karina continues to be a sheared cyclone with the deep convection
displaced to the southwest of the exposed low-level center. Recent
scatterometer data showed winds up to 40 kt in the southern
semicircle, and thus the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

The cyclone has moved more westward during the past several hours,
possibly due to reformation of the center closer to the convection.
This motion of 280/11 is expected to be short-lived, as all of the
available track guidance indicates that Karina should turn
northwestward during the next 24 h, with a northwestward to
west-northwestward then expected through 96 h. After that, the
cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn back to the west. The
new forecast track is adjusted to the west of the previous track
based on the current position and motion, and it lies a bit to the
left of the various consensus models. The 96 h point has been
nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast based on a
northward shift of the guidance at that time.

While Karina is likely to continue to feel the effects of
northeasterly vertical shear for the next 36 h or so, the new
forecast track gives it a little more time over warmer water.
Thus, the intensity forecast keeps the door open for some
strengthening for 24 h or so. After that, the center should move
over cooler water, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a
remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity
forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...KARINA RESUMES ITS NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 118.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 118.5 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast through tonight, with gradual
weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the
past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining
displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate
northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone
is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier
ASCAT data.

The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the
system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight
strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is
forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a
drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should
cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h,
the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and
the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if
not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in
good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids.

Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion
is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while
the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a
mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has
weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn
toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track
guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest
NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is
still to the south of most of the track guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:28 pm

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...KARINA AT PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 118.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kodama


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

The morning visible images showed Karina's partially obscured low
level center under the northeast edge of the cyclone's deep
convection. The displacement of the center is due to the ongoing
presence of moderate vertical wind shear from the northeast. Cloud
top temperatures have generally warmed through most of the morning,
though the latest images showed a small burst of deep convection
south of the center. An ASCAT pass this morning showed a large
swath of 35 kt winds in the southeastern semicircle of Karina's
circulation. The initial wind radii have been increased to account
for the updated data. Dvorak fixes came in at 35 kt from SAB, and 45
kt from TAFB and PHFO. ASCAT peak winds were 37 kt. Based on a
blend of these data, and little change in Karina's appearance in
satellite imagery, the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt for
this
advisory.

Moderate shear is expected to continue to affect Karina for another
24 hours. The shear will become weak from 36 to 72 hours, but by
then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea
surface temperatures. Most of the objective aids indicate that peak
intensity has been reached, and gradual weakening will occur after
24 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows HCCA, and has
Karina becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 hours, if not
sooner. This forecast trend keeps the intensity higher than the
statistical guidance.

The initial motion for this package is 305/9 kt. Karina is expected
to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level
anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72
hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection
ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The
forecast track has been adjusted a bit northward from the previous
forecast, in part due to an adjustment in the initial position, and
closely follows the HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.5N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama


Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 119.8W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 119.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kodama


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Karina may not have reached its peak after all. The northeasterly
vertical wind shear appears to have eased a bit, allowing
the dense cirrus overcast from the central convection to fully
obscure the low level cloud center. The cyclone also appears to be
better organized than 24 hours ago. As a result, most of the Dvorak
intensity estimates have increased, with ADT up to 39 kt, and PHFO
and TAFB indicating 55 kt. SAB was unchanged from the 6 hours ago at
35 kt. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity for
this advisory has been increased to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas radii have
also been adjusted based on guidance from TAFB.

Moderate shear should continue to affect Karina for another
12 to 24 hours. The shear is forecast to weaken after that, but by
then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface
temperatures. There is still a narrow window for additional
intensification, but most of the guidance holds the intensity for
another 12 to 24 hours, with gradual weakening occurring afterward.
The forecast holds Karina at 45 kt for 24 hours, followed by
weakening to post-tropical remnant low status by 72 hours. This is
close to the HCCA guidance.

The initial motion for this advisory is 310/10 kt. Karina is
forecast to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a
mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through
60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep
convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level
flow. The objective guidance is tightly packed through around 60
hours, with variations occurring thereafter regarding when the
southwestward turn will occur. The forecast track is close to the
previous forecast and closely follows the consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:30 am

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 120.6W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 120.6 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening
should begin tonight. Karina is forecast to become a remnant low
in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Karina has continued to become a little better organized tonight
with a concentrated area of deep convection near and over the
estimated low-level center. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and the initial wind
speed is nudged up to 50 kt based on that data.

Karina is approaching the 26 C isotherm, and it should be moving
over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. These
less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more
stable air mass should promote gradual weakening beginning by
tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant
low in about 60 hours. In addition to the cool waters and dry air,
an increase in southerly shear should cause the remnant low to
dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt. A continued
northwestward motion on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge is expected for the next couple of days. After that time, a
turn to the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as
the weak and shallow system moves in the low-level flow.

The initial 34-kt wind radii have been reduced based on partial
ASCAT overpasses.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:59 pm

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...KARINA FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 121.1W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 121.1 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the
west and then toward the west-southwest is expected late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening should begin by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become
a remnant low in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Karina has changed little in organization over the past several
hours with a concentrated area of deep convection mostly over the
southwestern portion of the circulation and over the estimated
position of the low-level center. The initial intensity is kept at
50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB and the objective UW-CIMSS ADT.

Karina is now crossing the 26 isotherm, so it is unlikely that any
further strengthening will occur. The cyclone is forecast to move
over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
atmosphere over the next couple of days. These conditions should
induce a weakening trend soon, and the deep convection is expected
to gradually wane during that time. Karina is forecast to become a
convection-free remnant low by 60 h, or perhaps a little sooner. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various
guidance aids.

The initial motion of the tropical storm is 310/09 kt, as it
continues to move along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its
northeast. This general motion should continue while the system
maintains convection. As the system becomes devoid of convection, a
turn to the west and west-southwest is anticipated as the cyclone
moves within the low-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.4N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 23.9N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 23.5N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 22.6N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:59 pm

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...COOLER WATERS WILL SOON WEAKEN KARINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 122.1W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so. Some slowing in
forward speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected
thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening should begin by tonight, and Karina is forecast to
become a remnant low in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Latest satellite images show little significant change in the
organization of deep convection associated with Karina since the
previous advisory. Although the thunderstorms are primarily
limited to the southwest semicircle, they remain over the center,
and outflow in the northeast semicircle appears somewhat improved
in the last couple of hours. A blend of subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates of 3.0/45 kt from SAB/HFO and 3.5/55 kt from
TAFB supports maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt.

Karina is crossing the 26C isotherm with an initial motion estimate
of 305/10 kt, and much cooler waters lie along the forecast track.
Karina is being steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the
centered to the northeast and north respectively, and the short
term forecast anticipates some relaxation of the recent
northeasterly shear as Karina rounds the ridges. This should lead to
slow weakening in the short term, and as south to southwesterly
shear increases after about 24 hours, Karina will continue
to weaken. Simulated satellite imagery based on HWRF guidance
indicates the cyclone will become convection-free within about 48
hours, with dissipation following soon thereafter. As Karina
weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it will be steered by
the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface
high centered to the distant northwest.

The updated track forecast lies along the same trajectory as the
previous, but is shifted slightly southward due to recent observed
motion, and is near the middle of guidance envelope. The intensity
forecast is essentially unchanged and closely follows trends
presented by SHIPS and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 20.7N 122.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...KARINA HANGING ON BUT WILL SOON WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 123.0W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 123.0 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue into Wednesday. Some slowing in forward
speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected
thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening should begin tonight, and Karina is forecast to
become a remnant low in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Karina's outflow has improved over the
past 6 hours, but persistent deep convection over the low-level
center has shown some signs of warming/weakening in the last couple
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 50
kt, primarily based on a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates of 45-55 kt from SAB/TAFB/HFO.

Karina is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt (310/10 kt), steered
by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the northeast and north,
respectively. Although some relaxation of the recent northeasterly
to easterly shear is expected to continue in the short-term,
gradual weakening is expected as Karina is now over sub-26C water.
As Karina rounds the southwestern portion of the deep-layer ridge in
about 24 hours, south to southwesterly shear is expected to
increase as the cyclone moves over even cooler waters and ingests
increasingly dry air. This will lead to the demise of the cyclone,
and Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in a couple
of days, dissipating shortly thereafter.

As the system weakens, it will be steered by the low-level
northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to
the distant northwest, causing a slowing in forward speed, and a
turn toward the west and southwest. The new official track forecast
has changed little from the previous, and lies very close to the
dynamical consensus TVCE. The new intensity forecast is little
changed, and closely follows both the statistical and dynamical
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 21.3N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:59 am

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...KARINA WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 123.7W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 123.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A slower westward motion is
expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is
expected to become a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Karina is weakening in a hurry. Deep convection near the center
has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is
in the northeastern quadrant. An ASCAT overpass from around 0500
UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that
data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.

The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25
C waters and a dry and stable airmass. Since Karina will be moving
over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger
southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected. Karina is
now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate
within a few days.

Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains
steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about
another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is
expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 123.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 123.9 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn back
toward the west-northwest is forecast today. A slower westward
motion is expected toward the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become
a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this
morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of
the center of circulation. There could still be a few 35-kt winds
remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by
a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous
35 kt for this advisory. Karina is expected to continue traversing
cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic
environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. Therefore, weakening
is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and
the cyclone should continue on this general motion through
Thursday night. A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina
degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level
tradewind flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:16 pm

Tropical Depression Karina Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...KARINA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL SOON BECOME A REMNANT
LOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 124.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karina
was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 124.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn
toward the southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become
a remnant low by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has
moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by
cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly
vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a
well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of
deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt
for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass.

The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by
a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not
expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant
low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered
by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a
turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs
in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the
previous and is supported by global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard
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