ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#241 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:23 am

It looks like an eye might be forming.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#242 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:30 am

Someone is jealous! Surprised they aren't issuing a Special Advisory on Teddy, but they must be overworked and this is no threat to land.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#243 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:46 am

Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#244 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:49 am

ClarCari wrote:Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!

Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#245 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:49 am

16/0530 UTC 15.3N 48.4W T5.0/5.0 TEDDY -- Atlantic

Supports 90 kt. Teddy is RI'ing this morning.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#246 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:53 am

Weather Dude wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!

Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though


I'm thinking Teddy reaches cat 4 by this evening at this rate. The Raw T# is 6.3.

Obviously someone is jealous that Sally stole the spotlight! :blowup: :bored:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#247 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!

Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though


I'm thinking Teddy reaches cat 4 by this evening at this rate. The Raw T# is 6.3.

Obviously someone is jealous that Sally stole the spotlight! :blowup: :bored:

This has potential to be the strongest storm of the year unless an October Caribbean monster steals the show
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#248 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:03 am

Weather Dude wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though


I'm thinking Teddy reaches cat 4 by this evening at this rate. The Raw T# is 6.3.

Obviously someone is jealous that Sally stole the spotlight! :blowup: :bored:

This has potential to be the strongest storm of the year unless an October Caribbean monster steals the show


With no Recon, they'll go cat 3 with T5.5 on Dvorak and cat 4 with consensus T6.0.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#249 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:38 am

Category 2!!
Whewww he’s BOMBING overnight.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#250 Postby bob rulz » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:43 am

70 to 100mph in one standard advisory. Structure and satellite presentation is as classic as it gets. Teddy is going to be a beast.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#251 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:56 am

bob rulz wrote:70 to 100mph in one standard advisory. Structure and satellite presentation is as classic as it gets. Teddy is going to be a beast.


Yeah, I go to bed with Teddy a tropical storm; get up, go to work, have a little time to catch up on the Sally thread, glance at the map on the top of S2K and realized Teddy is also a Cat. 2!! :double:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#252 Postby Ryxn » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:59 am

Now we have 3 simultaneous Category 2+ hurricanes spinning in the Atlantic. Rare feat.

#2020ing
Last edited by Ryxn on Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#253 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:46 am

Does anyone have a link to the definition of explosive intensification? I know rapid intensification is defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in a 24 hour period. But Teddy has already intensified by 30 mph in just the last 6 hours. Surely, that's explosive intensification!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#254 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:14 am

abajan wrote:Does anyone have a link to the definition of explosive intensification? I know rapid intensification is defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in a 24 hour period. But Teddy has already intensified by 30 mph in just the last 6 hours. Surely, that's explosive intensification!


A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.


https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=explosive%20deepening

Best I could find. Couldn't find any specified wind criteria.

Pretty sure Teddy should qualify either way, given it would be a Cat 4 by evening at this rate.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#255 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:23 am

New England should keep a eye on Teddy.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#256 Postby storm4u » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:26 am

Hurricane Mike wrote:New England should keep a eye on Teddy.



Watching up here for sure.


Dry weather is on tap this weekend, but there is more uncertainty early next week. The GFS/GGEM keep us dry, but the upper level pattern on the ECMWF becomes amplified enough to pull some of the rain and wind from Hurricane Teddy into southern New England. We will keep that at a low probability at this point, but something will need to watch.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#257 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:31 am

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#258 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:34 am

Hammy wrote:
abajan wrote:Does anyone have a link to the definition of explosive intensification? I know rapid intensification is defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in a 24 hour period. But Teddy has already intensified by 30 mph in just the last 6 hours. Surely, that's explosive intensification!


A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.


https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=explosive%20deepening

Best I could find. Couldn't find any specified wind criteria.

Pretty sure Teddy should qualify either way, given it would be a Cat 4 by evening at this rate.

Teddy's pressure dropped 12 mb from the 11 PM advisory to the 5 AM one. So yes, based on the pressure alone, it indeed qualifies. Thanks for the info. 8-)
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#259 Postby Do_For_Love » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:46 am

Explosive intensification huh? Wow. Teddy looks like a freakin beast already. I'd imagine it's gonna have incredible satellite presentation by this afternoon. RIP to the "low ACE 2020" talk.

...you guys really think theres a chance this could hit NE?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#260 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:50 am

Do_For_Love wrote:Explosive intensification huh? Wow. Teddy looks like a freakin beast already. I'd imagine it's gonna have incredible satellite presentation by this afternoon. RIP to the "low ACE 2020" talk.

...you guys really think theres a chance this could hit NE?


The setup is there for it to possibly happen, but everything would have to go right (or wrong in this case), maybe 5% or less chance
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