ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ryxn]

We have Teddy! Way ahead of previous earliest 19th storm (October 4, 2005). #2020ing

[Extratropical94]

[...]The initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS
SATCON. [...]

TAFB is at T2.5. T3.5 would be 55 kts

[Hurricane Mike]

Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make that forecast at this time.

Nice pun by Stewart.

[kevin]

So with Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy and TD21 there are now 5 active tropical systems in the Atlantic. Has this ever happened before or is this a first?

[Ryxn]

So with Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy and TD21 there are now 5 active tropical systems in the Atlantic. Has this ever happened before or is this a first?

1995 I believe and maybe one other year

Yup '95 on August 27 and 28.

6AM UTC on August 28, 1995, the Atlantic had Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Storm Iris (near hurricane), Tropical Depression Jerry (last advisory), Tropical Storm Karen (first advisory as storm), and Tropical Depression Thirteen (later Luis).

Ah the good ol' days... I mean I was negative 4 years old but still.... history

Also 1971 had a case of 5 (or 6 depending on sources) named systems simultaneously with it nearly being 7 with Fern, Edith, Ginger, Eighteen (just barely dissipated), Nineteen, Heidi (newly formed), and Irene (newly formed). Damn that was a clusterous (word I made up) period in the Atlantic

[supercane4867]

Teddy could very well become the strongest storm(so far) of the season. I have Igor as a potential analog.

[Do_For_Love]

Teddy could very well become the strongest storm(so far) of the season. I have Igor as a potential analog.

I didn't know about Igor, interesting storm. Looks like it did significant damage in Canada. Hopefully Teddy will avoid that kind of impact anywhere, but we'll see...

[jaxfladude]

A true fish or could Teddy be a threat down the road?

[plasticup]

So with Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy and TD21 there are now 5 active tropical systems in the Atlantic. Has this ever happened before or is this a first?

1995 I believe and maybe one other year

Yup '95 on August 27 and 28.

6AM UTC on August 28, 1995, the Atlantic had Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Storm Iris (near hurricane), Tropical Depression Jerry (last advisory), Tropical Storm Karen (first advisory as storm), and Tropical Depression Thirteen (later Luis).

Ah the good ol' days... I mean I was negative 4 years old but still.... history

You’re making us all feel so old...

[Ryxn]

So with Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy and TD21 there are now 5 active tropical systems in the Atlantic. Has this ever happened before or is this a first?

1995 I believe and maybe one other year

Yup '95 on August 27 and 28.

6AM UTC on August 28, 1995, the Atlantic had Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Storm Iris (near hurricane), Tropical Depression Jerry (last advisory), Tropical Storm Karen (first advisory as storm), and Tropical Depression Thirteen (later Luis).

Ah the good ol' days... I mean I was negative 4 years old but still.... history

You’re making us all feel so old...

Well I owe some of my obsession with these weather forums to you guys for keeping it lively so thank you

[Emmett_Brown]

Teddy is lopsided with convection mostly S of the center. It might be an optical illusion, but Teddy appears to be tracking more due W this morning, I don't see much of a northerly component at the moment; perhaps some shear steering it to the left side of the cone for now.

[gfsperpendicular]

Teddy is lopsided with convection mostly S of the center. It might be an optical illusion, but Teddy appears to be tracking more due W this morning, I don't see much of a northerly component at the moment; perhaps some shear steering it to the left side of the cone for now.

We've still got over 24 hours until the north turn should start so I'm not concerned yet. The cone is also pretty safely east of the islands so there's a lot of room for error.

[HuracanMaster]

Teddy looks fairly disorganized to me. No convection on the north side and kind of elongated. Seems to be taking more time to thighten up.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

That’s quite a WSW shift in the 11am advisory. The whole track has now been shifted a tad west, which will put Teddy in slightly higher SSTs/OHC/MPIs. I don’t think this will be the last W shift if it remains disorganized and continues west.

[Buck]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATE ... hash=61389

Disorganized, but signs that he is getting his act together... some banding features and recent convection over the center.

[CaribJam]

That’s quite a WSW shift in the 11am advisory. The whole track has now been shifted a tad west, which will put Teddy in slightly higher SSTs/OHC/MPIs. I don’t think this will be the last W shift if it remains disorganized and continues west.

Could this shift be influenced by the projected SW movement of Rene (or its remnant)?

[HuracanMaster]

That’s quite a WSW shift in the 11am advisory. The whole track has now been shifted a tad west, which will put Teddy in slightly higher SSTs/OHC/MPIs. I don’t think this will be the last W shift if it remains disorganized and continues west.

Im not buying that turn north yet it took a dip to 12.8n.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[HuracanMaster]

Correct one

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[HuracanMaster]

Td 21 and Teddy clearly interacting with eachother. Could this interaction be influencing Teddy to take a due west track?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[StPeteMike]

Can someone tell me what pushes Rene south and west but Teddy is expected to go north and west?