ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#161 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:32 pm

Up to 45 kts and more west.

20L TEDDY 200914 1800 12.9N 43.4W ATL 45 1002
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#162 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 45 kts and more west.

20L TEDDY 200914 1800 12.9N 43.4W ATL 45 1002

Teddy really wants to keep going W it seems. The forecast track is probably going to get another western shift.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#163 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:50 pm

Teddy is really starting to wrap up now. Lots of convection forming on the east side and wrapping around. Intensification is in progress!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#164 Postby CaribJam » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:19 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Up to 45 kts and more west.

20L TEDDY 200914 1800 12.9N 43.4W ATL 45 1002

Teddy really wants to keep going W it seems. The forecast track is probably going to get another western shift.


A major test of this movement (as per the current NHC projection) is at what latitude will it be at about 50W.

Will it be above or below 15N? Only time (about Wednesday morning as per the current cone) will tell.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#165 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:21 pm

Looking a little dry on the western side. The HWRF's simulated IR feature did suggest there would be dry air intrusions sometime during the next few days, so this isn't unexpected.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#166 Postby FireRat » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:28 pm

looks like Teddy tends to have more convection on his southern side, we might need to watch for possible reformation of his center to the south if this keeps up. This could throw a wrench into the modeled tracks, it already was discovered to be centered further south than thought yesterday, which kind of explains the recent sw dip in his track. I've also got a feeling that if Vicky stays as a TS or large enough more than expected, this can also account for Teddy to head more west in the near term.

The more west and the more weak, the more risky things become. This isn't what is expected to happen, but in 2020 we can't discount anything. Keep a close eye on this tricky guy, definitely 'bears' watching.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#167 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:53 pm

As long as it doesn't trend west into the nightmare scenarios we had last week. Going to be a very big surf and rip current producer either way.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#168 Postby HuracanMaster » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:41 pm

Teddy will reach 50W much sooner than NHC
predicts, I estimate tomorrow afternoon instead of wed at 8am. If Teddy is below 13.5N when it reaches 50w you can throw all the models out the window and the northern leewards WILL be in play.

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#169 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:30 pm

At a minimum I think this shift puts Bermuda in play.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#170 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:18 pm

Teddy looks primed to become a hurricane soon.

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#171 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:31 pm

He looks like a big boy! :)
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#172 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:35 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Teddy looks primed to become a hurricane soon.

https://i.imgur.com/8QK6ynS.jpg

This one has potential to become a monster... Hopefully it misses everyone
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#173 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:13 pm

Not a bad performance by the 18z September 13th HWRF run: spotty convection with a warm spot occasionally visible and a thicker band in the SW quadrant.
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WV imagery shows that Teddy has already established some pretty good outflow.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#174 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:14 pm

It’s envelope is so large it reminds me of a wpac system
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#175 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:16 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:It’s envelope is so large it reminds me of a wpac system


Reminds me of a more potent version of the wave that birthed Isiais
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#176 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:26 pm

00z best track maintains Teddy at 45 kt, though the 18z best track was revised downward to 40 kt. This is likely due to a recent ASCAT pass showing winds lower than 40 kt, in spite of a T3.5 estimate from SAB.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#177 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:36 pm

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Teddy had a LLC relocation. Probably the reason why Model's have shifted West
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#178 Postby HuracanMaster » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:42 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:Image

Teddy had a LLC relocation. Probably the reason why Model's have shifted West
My eyes must be deceiving me but all I see in the loops is due west trayectory. Hope Im wrong though.

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#179 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:02 pm

Moving west at 270 degrees. Full text of 00z Best Track.

At 0000 UTC, 15 September 2020, TROPICAL STORM TEDDY (AL20) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.0°N and 44.5°W. The current intensity was 45 kt and the center was moving at 12 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#180 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:22 am

It appears to be a solid T3.5 now and maybe early signs of an eye? That said, based on the earlier ASCAT pass and assumed strengthening since, 50 kt would be my guess.
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