ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#201 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:53 am

Impressive.

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#202 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:59 am

Kazmit wrote:Impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/zJwz1TC.png

This one has major written all over it
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#203 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:31 am

Teddy could be the one to quiet the MDR naysaers. With potential Wilfred right behind we might get a couple of nice long track strong MDR storms.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#204 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:34 am

Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#205 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:36 am

aspen wrote:Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!

That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#206 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:38 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
aspen wrote:Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!

That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon


That's important too, gotta see what the ridges and troughs are actually doing out there. Should help the models provide a better picture of where this thing will go.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#207 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:45 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
aspen wrote:Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!

That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon

Darn. At least there’ll be some on Thursday.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#208 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:33 pm

saved loop

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#209 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:55 pm

It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:33 pm

TXNT21 KNES 151817
TCSNTL

A. 20L (TEDDY)

B. 15/1730Z

C. 14.1N

D. 47.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.0 AND PT
IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/1642Z 14.0N 47.2W AMSR2


...MLEVINE

Looks closer to T4.0 to me. I'd go with 60 kt for the intensity.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#211 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:27 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6

Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#212 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:28 pm

wx98 wrote:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6

Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

3.0? I'm not that good at Dvorak but that seems a little low
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#213 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:29 pm

Teddy is continuing to trend SW of the official forecast track, definitely a North component but no turn in sight
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#214 Postby wx98 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:31 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
wx98 wrote:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6

Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

3.0? I'm not that good at Dvorak but that seems a little low


Yeah I think there is some underestimation going on here.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#215 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:38 pm

[*]
aspen wrote:It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.


This is correct. He is going just a hair slightly north of due west currently.in forward motion. They relocated his cenyer position southwest yesterday. We have to watch Teddy closely. This is not yet a sure bet it will stay harmlesss out to sea. A couple of models take him farther west. Also, we are seeing the eyewall developing quite well this afternoon. Teddy is well on its way to probably becoming the strongest N. Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to this juncture of the season.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#216 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:44 pm

northjaxpro wrote:[*]
aspen wrote:It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.


This is correct. He is going just a hair slightly north of due west currently.in forward motion. We have to watch Teddy closely. This is not yet a sure bet it will stay harmlesss out to sea. A couple of models take him farther west. Also, we are seeing the eyewall developing quite well this afternoon. Teddy is on its well on its way to probably becoming the strongest N. Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to this juncture of the season.

I hope it becomes a non-landfalling Cat 5 like Lorenzo (except without the ship-sinking). That’ll add another major to the list, give a massive ACE boost, and also give a boost to the Instantaneous Cyclone Energy of the season (it’s this instantaneous intensity measurement similar to ACE that I’ve been using for the past few years). The further west Teddy goes, the more 28-29C SSTs he’ll run into at 18-25N.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#217 Postby us89 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:46 pm

...STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


Steady Teddy! I like it.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#218 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:52 pm

The NHC mentions a good microwave structure that looks like that of a system getting ready to intensify, and I have to agree. This was from 5 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#219 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:55 pm

aspen wrote:The NHC mentions a good microwave structure that looks like that of a system getting ready to intensify, and I have to agree. This was from 5 hours ago.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/amsusr89/2020al20_amsusr89_202009151524.gif


Not sure that's gonna need 60 hours to become a major.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#220 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:34 pm

Should be a hurricane very shortly, if not one already.

I'll go out on a limb and say 125 knot peak.

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