ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Image
Visit the Storm2K Tropical System Page
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4280
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: GA/TN

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#221 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:16 pm

HWRF has been spawning unusually large eyes out of Teddy in recent runs which I'm not sure if they will pan out...

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2379
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#222 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:41 pm

supercane4867 wrote:HWRF has been spawning unusually large eyes out of Teddy in recent runs which I'm not sure if they will pan out...

https://i.imgur.com/W2aphVJ.png

The HWRF has done a good job with plenty of systems this year, but these very tame runs for Teddy just seem off. I think it’s overestimating the potential for dry air intrusions and core disruptions that lead to the formation of a larger eye.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 30070
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#223 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:25 pm

15/2330 UTC 14.6N 47.8W T4.0/4.0 TEDDY -- Atlantic
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 30070
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#224 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:25 pm

aspen wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:HWRF has been spawning unusually large eyes out of Teddy in recent runs which I'm not sure if they will pan out...

https://i.imgur.com/W2aphVJ.png

The HWRF has done a good job with plenty of systems this year, but these very tame runs for Teddy just seem off. I think it’s overestimating the potential for dry air intrusions and core disruptions that lead to the formation of a larger eye.


Almost reminiscent of Isabel if that happened.
0 likes   

MJGarrison
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:26 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#225 Postby MJGarrison » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:31 pm

From the 5PM Disco: “The model spread is still much lower than normal, and
confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.”

That’s not something we’ve seen this season too often.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
1 likes   

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#226 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:37 pm

MJGarrison wrote:From the 5PM Disco: “The model spread is still much lower than normal, and
confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.”

That’s not something we’ve seen this season too often.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


That almost makes me more concerned haha
0 likes   

us89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 255
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:12 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#227 Postby us89 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:36 pm

NHC is clearly having some fun with this one

...TEDDY BEARS WATCHING...
15 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2379
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#228 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:40 pm

The NHC bumped down the forecast peak again, now it’s “only” 100 kt because the models have been much less aggressive with Teddy recently. Apparently there’ll be drier air and shear by the end of the week, but that doesn’t mean Teddy can’t bomb out before then.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

ClarCari
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 263
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#229 Postby ClarCari » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:41 pm

His chances of becoming a major are weakening unless he’s able to go through an RI phase, which is still possible. I think he needs to cut through that dry air first.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2379
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#230 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:53 pm

An eye looks to be forming on IR imagery. Teddy is probably already a hurricane.
6 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#231 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:04 pm

Teddy is definitely moving on a WNW heading at least, but I still don't understand why all the models are so quick to shoot it off to the NW. For days they've been slightly overestimating his northerly component, and according to the models Teddy should have been on a more poleward heading hours ago
1 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: Central NC

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#232 Postby FireRat » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:17 pm

Looks like Teddy's long awaited NW turn has commenced, per the NHC he is now headed at 315 degrees NW. I think those of you in the Lesser Antilles and PR can rest a little easier now. You guys were never in the cone, but Teddy's consistent west trend was getting a little unnerving lately. As usual, the NHC is doing a good job.
Last edited by FireRat on Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18

PavelGaborik10
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 191
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#233 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:19 pm

ClarCari wrote:His chances of becoming a major are weakening unless he’s able to go through an RI phase, which is still possible. I think he needs to cut through that dry air first.


His chances are fine. If he manages to sneak under the high he has an opportunity to re-intensify down the line.

He looks great right now, huge system.
4 likes   

ClarCari
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 263
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#234 Postby ClarCari » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:22 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
ClarCari wrote:His chances of becoming a major are weakening unless he’s able to go through an RI phase, which is still possible. I think he needs to cut through that dry air first.


His chances are fine. If he manages to sneak under the high he has an opportunity to re-intensify down the line.

He looks great right now, huge system.

I think they’re fine too. Didn’t mean he had bad chances, it’s a big slot of dry air but I think he can cut it in half.

I agree about his size and that’s the biggest thing Teddy has going for him and his structure. A well defined structure is far more resistant to shear and dry air even at weaker intensity.
You can see that with Sally now that she last second has a more solid eye her intensity is starting to go off some.
2 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1429
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#235 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:13 am

Special statement - bumped to 85mph hurricane.
3 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Tulsa, OK

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#236 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:14 am

Meanwhile, Teddy has been upgraded to a hurricane. 85mph, 984mb
2 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

ClarCari
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 263
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#237 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:15 am

NO ONE CARES TEDDY LEAVE US ALONE

jk lol just the situation with Sally is serious I don’t think alot of people are gonna notice right now :lol:

Edit: OMG straight up to 85MPH!
3 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1764
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#238 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:18 am

...TEDDY BECOMES A HURRICANE...
2:10 AM AST Wed Sep 16
Location: 15.4°N 48.5°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph


Three active hurricanes at once in the Atlantic basin.
4 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4749
Age: 37
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#239 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:19 am

Weather Dude wrote:Meanwhile, Teddy has been upgraded to a hurricane. 85mph, 984mb


Can't say that was expected, at least not before I checked the satellite. Giving a giant middle finger to the otherwise unfavorable MDR conditions up to this point.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
StPeteMike
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 151
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#240 Postby StPeteMike » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:20 am

Not surprised, it’s looking really well on satellite. Also started that NW I see!
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests