ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#281 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:05 pm

aspen wrote:Still looking pretty good on visible, despite today's organizational hiccups. I'd say it's still around 85 kt.
https://i.imgur.com/jiEcUpN.jpg


That's a pretty storm
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#282 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:09 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z microwave shows eyewall still opens to the SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tWLU3yz.jpg

HWRF looks to be onto something with that huge eyewall it depicts. Outer eyewall seems to be forming
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#283 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:10 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:18z microwave shows eyewall still opens to the SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tWLU3yz.jpg

HWRF looks to be onto something with that huge eyewall it depicts. Outer eyewall seems to be forming

HWRF has been incredible this year with these storm structures
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#284 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:59 pm

No longer forecast to be a Cat 4 and instead max out at 120 mph:
...TEDDY TAKES A BREAK FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE SOON...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 16
Location: 17.5°N 50.8°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#285 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:07 pm

Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#286 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:11 pm

Jr0d wrote:Good to see Teddy gaining latitude, still.might be a problem for Bermuda though.

I did notice the GFS now has Teddy forecast to turn back west in 3-4 days before getting picked up by a trough in about 6 days.

All the models are in good agreement that Teddy will recurve in about a week.


Euro would like a word with you lol...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#287 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:16 pm

Some very deep convection on the NW side, just waiting for any break in shear to wrap around to the other side.
Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#288 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:19 pm

Any re-solidification of the eye will lead to at least a slight burst of RI, only my best guess based on how these storms have performed this year.
NHC forecasts and models rarely if ever take into account RI as it’s not something you can really forecast from a professional standpoint.

I hope this year helps us better able to understand and predict Rapid Intensification in the future for more accurate and less surprising storms. :lol:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#289 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:30 pm

aspen wrote:Some very deep convection on the NW side, just waiting for any break in shear to wrap around to the other side.
https://i.imgur.com/mfqcA25.jpg

If that wraps all the way around this will explode
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#290 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:39 pm

aspen wrote:Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.

Good grief! :roll:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#291 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:44 pm

aspen wrote:Some very deep convection on the NW side, just waiting for any break in shear to wrap around to the other side.
https://i.imgur.com/mfqcA25.jpg


If that convection can wrap and an eye opens up, Teddy is off to the races.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#292 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:44 pm

aspen wrote:Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.

NHC doesn't think shear is going to get better for Teddy and it hasn't done much today to there's always a chance...
But I still think he does
Last edited by Weather Dude on Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#293 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:45 pm

Seeing this much CDG is never a good thing. Imagine if this wraps all the way around.

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#294 Postby Do_For_Love » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:45 pm

aspen wrote:Imagine this doesn’t even become a major now.


lol I guess that is possible now. A little disappointing, I kinda wanted to see a monster fish storm...since the potential of bermuda/NA hit has risen though, it would be for the best to stay weaker obviously.

Of course, NHC is still calling for a Cat 3, so we'll see what happens.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#295 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:48 pm

Hard to imagine it not becoming a major. The potential is still there albeit short term obstacles.

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#296 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:49 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Seeing this much CDG is never a good thing. Imagine if this wraps all the way around.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20L.GIF

Geez thats quite the CDG for an Atlantic storm
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#297 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:50 pm

At least give the Tedster a chance! :lol:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#298 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:52 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Hard to imagine it not becoming a major. The potential is still there albeit short term obstacles.

https://i.imgur.com/Zocbhcj.jpg

Outflow-wise, Teddy reminds me a lot of Lorenzo from when it first began RI into a major to its final peak intensity.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#299 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:55 pm

When does recon head out tomorrow? 14z or 18z?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#300 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:02 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Seeing this much CDG is never a good thing. Imagine if this wraps all the way around.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20L.GIF

Geez thats quite the CDG for an Atlantic storm

Troposphere is cooler GCane pointed this out not too long ago.
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